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Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 May 25 0854 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 – 24 May 2015

Solar activity was at low levels from 18-23 May with very low levels observed on 24 May. Only low level isolated C-class flaring was observed during the period originating from Regions 2349 (S21, L=002, class/area Dao/060 on 24 May), 2351 (N22, L=330, class/area Cso/020 on 20 May), and 2353 (N07, L=344, class/area Dao/060 on 24 May). Region 2339 (N13, L=129, class/area Fkc/900 on 08 May), which was very productive last period, decayed as it quietly rotated around the NW limb on 18 May. Region 2349 emerged on the visible disk on 18 May, but did not show any significant growth until 23 May. Region 2353 emerged on 21 May and exhibited growth through the end of the period. However, both regions only managed 60 millionths of coverage by the end of the period. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 19 and 24 May, moderate levels from 20-23 May, and at high levels on 18 May.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm conditions. The period began under the influence of a co-rotating interaction region followed by a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Total field increased to a maximum of 18 nT at 19/0052 UTC while the Bz component fluctuated between +13 nT and -15 nT late on 18 May through early on 19 May. Solar wind increased to near 575 km/s by midday on 19 May before slowly returning to nominal conditions by late on 20 May. The geomagnetic field responded with minor to major storm conditions late on 18 May through early on 19 May. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 20 May. A return to quiet conditions occurred on 21 May and persisted through the end of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 May – 20 June 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. A chance for moderate levels exists from 30 May through 11 Jun with the return of Region 2339.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels possible from 31 May-01 Jun, 04-06 Jun, 10-12 Jun, and 16-20 Jun due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 28-30 May, 02-03 Jun, 07-11 Jun, and 13-15 Jun with possible minor storm levels on 08-09 Jun due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users:
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
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Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

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Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 May 18 0402 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 – 17 May 2015

Solar activity was low from 11-15 May. The largest event of the
period was a C9/1n at 13/1838 UTC associated with a filament
eruption near Region 2345 (N16, L=113, class/area Axx/020 on 13
May). Region 2339 (N13, L=129, class/area Fkc/900 on 08 May) was the
most active region on the disk and produced 19 C-class events during
the period. There were several filament eruptions observed during
the period however, none of them turned out to be geoeffective.
Solar activity decreased to very low levels for 16-17 May.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was
enhanced on 12 May reaching a peak flux of 6 pfu at 12/0720 UTC but
never crossed alert threshold.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels on 11-13 May before reaching high levels
daily for the remainder of the period in response to effects from a
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels on 11
May and mostly unsettled levels on 12 May due to extended periods of
negative Bz. On 13 May, geomagnetic field conditions increased to
active to major storm levels due to the onset of a recurrent
negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels persisted on
14-15 May as effects from the HSS subsided. Quiet conditions
prevailed for the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 May – 13 June 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance
for C-class flares and a slight chance of M-class flares on 18 May
before decreasing further to only a chance for C-class flares once
Region 2339 rotates fully around the west limb on 19 May. The chance
for M-class activity increases on 25 May with the return of old
Region 2335 (S15, L=192) and remain elevated through the remainder
of the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high levels from 18-28 May due to
residual effects from last weeks negative polarity CH HSS followed
by effects from an anticipated positive polarity HSS due to become
geoeffective on 18 May. Normal to moderate levels are expected to
prevail with the exception of 31 May-01 Jun, 04-06 Jun, and 10-12
Jun following various recurrent CH high speed streams.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to active on
18-19 May due to effects from a positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected from 20 May to 01 Jun. Quiet to
unsettled conditions with a chance for active periods are expected
on 02-03 Jun due to effects from a negative polarity HSS followed by
quiet conditions through 06 Jun. Unsettled conditions are expected
on 07 and 10 Jun as well as active to minor storm conditions on
08-09 Jun due to the anticipated return of the recurrent negative
polarity CH HSS that yielded major storm conditions this week.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the
period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users:
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 May 11 0537 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 – 10 May 2015

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels during the period. The
largest and most active regions on the solar disk this period were
Regions 2335 (S15, L=192, class/area Eac/310 on 04 May) and 2339
(N13, L=129, class/area Fkc/900 on 08 May). Region 2335 began the
period reaching its peak in area and magnetic complexity
(Beta-gamma). On 05 May it produced two M-class flares; an M1 at
05/1425 UTC and an M2 at 05/1724 UTC. By 06 May, Region 2335 was in
decay and ended the period as a simple Cro spot class with a beta
magnetic configuration. Region 2339 was in a growth phase since it
rotated around the NE limb on 05 May. This region was responsible
for multiple M-class flaring spanning 05-06 May and an impulsive X2
flare at 05/2211 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (1163
km/s), a 590 sfu Tenflare and a non-Earth directed coronal mass
ejection (CME) first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 05/2224
UTC off the NE limb. Solar activity declined to low levels from
07-10 May.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels on 04-05 May and at normal levels from 06-10 May.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels
during the period. The period started off with quiet conditions on
04 and 05 May under a nominal solar wind regime. At 06/0053 UTC, a
shock was observed at the ACE satellite associated with a 02 May CME
that occurred as a result of an 18 degree filament eruption observed
between 02/1500-1830 UTC. Total field increased to a maximum of 18
nT at 06/0614 UTC while the Bz component went southward to a maximum
of -13 nT at 06/1216 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from 363 km/s
to around 490 km/s. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was subsequently
observed at 06/0143 UTC with a 31 nT deviation in the Boulder
magnetometer. As a result, quiet to minor storm levels were observed
on 06 May. By late on 06 May and through 07 May, the Bz component
deflected north and remained so as CME effects diminished. Nominal
solar wind conditions prevailed through 10 May when the total field
became enhanced once again. Total field increased to 14 nT with
prolonged periods of southward Bz. No appreciable increase in solar
wind speed was observed with this event, however. The geomagnetic
field was quiet on 07 May, quiet to unsettled on 08 and 09 May and
quiet to active on 10 May.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 May – 06 June 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares from 11-18 May as Region 2339
transits the visible disk and again from 31 May-06 June when Region
2339 returns.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels
possible from 13-18 May and again from 21-23 May due to coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS) activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels from 11 through 14 May with periods of minor storming
(G1-Minor) likely on 12-13 May due to a combination of a co-rotating
interaction region followed by a CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels
are also expected from 18-19 May and 02 -03 June with possible
periods of minor storming on 18 May due to multiple recurrent CH
HSS.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users:
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

There is a new sunspot region rotating into view, producing moderately-strong (M-class) x-ray flares. This video shows you the first 11 hours of May 5, 2015

Expect flares throughout this week, which will degrade HF propagation DURING the flare, but enhance propagation overall (due to the higher Radio Flux). There might be occasional coronal mass ejections, too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgis5Bg8dBk

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 May 04 0612 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 April – 03 May 2015

Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. Very
low levels were observed on 27 April and on 02 May. Solar activity
was in decline during the beginning of the period as Region 2331
(S10, L=021, class/area Dai/240 on 26 Apr) rotated around the SW
limb on 29 April. Only isolated low level C-class flaring was
observed for the majority of the period until new Region 2335 (S15,
L=192, class/area Dai/220 on 02 May) rotated around the SE limb on
30 April. This region slowly developed in both area and magnetic
class during its first few days on the visible disk and culminated
in seven C-class flares; the largest of which was a C2 flare at
01/0257 UTC. Other activity of note included an 18 degree filament
eruption, centered near S46E09, observed lifting off the visible
disk between 02/1500-1830 UTC. Associated with this eruption was a
partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 02/2036 UTC with an approximate speed of
473 km/s. Although the majority of the ejecta appeared to be
southward of the ecliptic plane, WSA/ENLIL modelling of the event
showed a potential impact after midday on 06 May.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. Moderate levels were observed on 27-29
April and again on 02-03 May.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet through late in the
period. At approximately 30/0515 UTC, total field showed an increase
from 6 nT to 11 nT with a weak increase in solar wind speed from
approximately 280 km/s to 350 km/s. Further increases in speed to
around 450 km/s occurred on 01 May as a weak, positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. CH HSS
influence continued through the end of the period. The geomagnetic
field responded with quiet to unsettled conditions on 02-03 May.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 May – 30 May 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare activity from 04-21
May and again from 28-30 May with the return of old Regions 2322
(N11, L=116) and 2325 (N05, L=050).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels
possible from 07-08, 13-21, and 29-30 May due to CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels from 05-07 May with active periods likely on 06-07 May due to
a combination of CH HSS effects and the arrival of the 02 May CME by
mid to late on 06 May. Unsettled to active conditions with likely
minor storm periods (G1-Minor) are expected from 12-15 and 17-20 May
due to a recurrent CH HSS. A weak CH HSS is expected to become
geoeffective from 27-30 May causing quiet to unsettled conditions.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users:
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Apr 27 0348 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 – 26 April 2015

Solar activity was at low to high levels throughout the period.
Region 2322 (N11, L=116, class/area=Dac/60 on 21 April) grew and
intensified as it rotated to the western limb; producing numerous
low level C-class flares and five moderate level M-class flares on
21 April. Region 2322 also produced the largest flare of the period,
an impulsive M4/Sf at 22/1545 UTC. Region 2322 continued to produce
C-class and M-class flares until it rotated beyond the western limb
by 24 April, including a long-duration M1 flare at 23/1007 UTC with
an associated Type-II radio sweep and coronal mass ejection (CME)
from the western limb as observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. The CME
was not Earth-directed.

Regions 2325 (N05, L=050, class/area=Cai/220 on 19 April) and 2326
(N20, L=086, class/area=Cao/80 on 23 April) were the other most
prolific flare producers during the period. Region 2325 produced an
M1 flare at 21/2201 UTC and Region 2326 produced numerous C-class
X-ray flares with the most notable being a C7 flare at 23/1203 UTC.
Both flares were very impulsive and did not have any observed
optical flares nor notable radio signatures.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate to high levels during the week; reaching high levels on
20-21 April and 24 April with a peak flux of 2,620 pfu on 20 April.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 20
April as Earth was in a background ambient solar wind environment.
On 21 April, Earth came under the influence of an isolated positive
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and solar wind speeds
increased to over 600 km/s as measured at the ACE satellite. This CH
HSS produced occasional periods of active levels of geomagnetic
activity from 21-24 April. The CH HSS rotated out of a geo-effective
alignment by midday on 24 April and the winds decreased to mainly
nominal solar wind conditions of about 375 km/s, returning Earth to
quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

During the week, ACE solar wind parameters measured a high wind
speed of 628 km/s on 21/0632 UTC and a low wind speed of 291 km/s on
26/1123 UTC. Total field (Bt) ranged from about 1 to 14 nT, while
the Bz component varied between +12 to -7 nT. The phi angle was
generally in a positive (away from the Sun) orientation with a short
period of negative (towards the Sun) sector to begin the week.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 April – 23 May 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels through
03 May due to the low number of complex active regions. Solar
activity levels are expected to increase to low levels; with a
slight chance for moderate (R1-R2/minor-moderate) levels beginning
04 May with the return of Region 2322 (N11, L=116) and remain at low
levels, but increase to a chance for moderate (R1-R2/minor-moderate)
levels beginning 07 May as Region 2326 (N20, L=086) also rotates
back onto the disc. Solar activity level is expected to decrease
back to very low to low levels with the departure of Regions 2322
and 2326 beginning 17 May.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels from 27 April-06 May,
normal levels from 07-12 May, moderate to high levels from 13-14
May, high levels from 15-18 May, moderate levels from 19-20 May, and
moderate to high levels from 21-23 May.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels from
27-28 April and increase to quiet to unsettled levels beginning 29
April due to CH HSS effects. Field activity is expected to begin
decreasing by 02 May, with overall quiet levels likely from 03-10
May. Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active
levels beginning late on 11 May and likely reaching active levels on
12-13 May due to CH HSS effects. Field activity is expected to
decrease to unsettled to active levels by 14 May as CH HSS effects
begin to wane; and return to quiet to unsettled conditions from
15-17 May. Field conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to
active levels on 18 May due to a CH HSS and return to quiet to
unsettled conditions as the CH HSS rotates out of a geo-effective
position by 21 May, and remain at quiet levels for the remainder of
the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users:
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Apr 20 0248 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 – 19 April 2015

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Numerous weak to
moderate level C-class flares were observed from Regions 2320 (S12,
L=211, class/area Dac/180 on 07 Apr), 2321 (N13, L=095, class/area
Ekc/620 on 13 Apr) and 2324 (N18, L=062, class/area Dko/410 on 15
Apr). The most significant event of the period occurred from Region
2321 on 18 April when the region produced a C5/1f flare at 18/1419
UTC. Associated with this event was a 7 degree long filament
eruption, centered near N05W16. The filament eruption resulted in an
asymmetric, faint full-halo CME, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery at 18/1524 UTC.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels on 13-15 April and high levels on 16-19 April.

Geomagnetic field activity began the period on 13-14 April at quiet
to active levels under the influence of a weak transient. By midday
on 15 April, field activity increased to active to minor storm
(G1-minor) levels as a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), in
advance of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS), influenced the magnetic field of Earth. Geomagnetic activity
increased to major storm (G2-moderate) levels late on 16 April due
to CH HSS effects and continued at active to minor storm levels
through midday on 17 April. Field activity relaxed to quiet to
unsettled levels through the remainder of the summary period as CH
HSS effects waned.

During the period, ACE solar wind parameters measured a high wind
speed of 784 km/s on 17/0408 UTC with a low speed of 286 km/s on
14/0004 UTC. Total field (Bt) ranged from about 1-17 nT while the Bz
component varied between +13 to -12 nT. The phi angle was generally
in a negative (towards) orientation with intermittent periods of
rotation to a positive (away) sector.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 April – 16 May 2015

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight
chance for moderate (R1-R2/minor-moderate) levels through 24 April
due to the flare potential from Region 2321. Very low to low levels
are expected from 25 April through 06 May. From 06-16 May, activity
levels are expected to increase to a chance for
(R1-R2/minor-moderate) levels upon the return of old Region 2321
(N11, L=092).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring any
significant flare activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high levels from 20 April-06 May,
normal to moderate levels from 07-12 May and moderate to high levels
from 13-16 May.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 21 and 22 April due to CME effects.
Field activity is expected to be at G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 14 May with unsettled to active conditions expected on 20,
25, 29-30 April and 01, 13 and 15 May, all due to CH HSS effects.
Quiet to unsettled field activity is expected for the remainder of
the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users:
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr