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Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Jul 13 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jul 13 0408 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 – 12 July 2015
Solar activity began at moderate levels. Region 2381 (N14, L=074, class/area Eko/550 on 08 Jul) produced a pair of M-class flares on 06 Jul; an M1/Sn at 06/0844 UTC and an M1/2n at 06/2040 UTC. Activity was low from 07-11 Jul. Region 2381 produced the majority of the low level C-class flares from 07-09 Jul while Region 2385 (N08, L=106, class/area Dao/110 on 11 Jul) produced the C-class flares on 10-11 Jul. Solar activity decreased to very low levels on 12 Jul. Several filament eruptions were observed throughout the week but none of them were on the Sun-Earth line.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels for the majority of the period with the exception of 09-10 Jul when high levels were reached due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Geomagnetic field activity began the week at active levels due to effects from a waning CH HSS on 06 Jul. Mostly quiet conditions were observed from 07-09 Jul with the exception of isolated unsettled periods on 07 and 09 Jul. Activity increased to active to minor storm levels from 10-11 Jul due to effects from a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions finished out the period on 12 Jul as CH HSS effects began to subside.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 July – 08 August 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares from 13-15 Jul. Very low to low activity is expected from 16-26 Jul after Region 2381 rotates around the west limb. Activity is expected to increase to low levels with a chance for M-class flares for the remainder of the period as old Region 2378 (S15, L=084) and Region 2381 return to the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 13 Jul. Moderate to high levels are expected from 14-17 Jul following CH HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected to return from 18 Jul-02 Aug. Moderate to high levels are expected again from 03-05 Aug followed by a return to normal to moderate levels from 06-08 Aug.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 13-14 Jul due to residual CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 15-30 Jul. Quiet to active levels are expected from 31 Jul-02 Aug with minor storm levels expected on 01 Aug due to a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return from 03-05 Aug. Active to minor storm conditions are expected from 06-07 Aug due to a positive polarity CH HSS followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 08 Aug as effects subside.
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Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Jul 06 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jul 06 0524 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 June – 05 July 2015
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels this period. Low levels were observed during the majority of the period with moderate levels observed on 03 July and very low levels on 05 July. The majority of the C-flare activity occurred from Regions 2373 (N16, L=141, class/area Dso/150 on 01 July), 2376 (N13, L=124, class/area Eai/150 on 01 July) and 2378 (S16, L=086, class/area Cso/090 on 04 July). Region 2378 produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive M1/1n flare at 03/1251 UTC. New Region 2381 (N15, L=073, class/area Dao/100 on 05 July) emerged near the NE limb on 03 July and grew moderately on 05 July, however had not produced significant flare activity by the time of this report. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were noted during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit, however there was an enhancement from 29-30 July as levels were decaying from the 10 MeV proton event that occurred from 26/0350 UTC through 27/0755 UTC associated with an M7/3b flare at 25/0816 UTC. Another enhancement to 5 pfu (Below S1-Minor) was observed from 01-02 July, likely due to flare/CME activity from beyond the west limb at 01/1436 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 29 June through 04 July reaching a maximum flux value of 9,670 pfu at 30/1725 UTC. Electron flux decreased to normal levels on 05 July in response to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with solar wind parameters at nominal levels for the majority of the week. Solar wind speeds ranged from 300 km/s to 450 km/s and total field values were between 1 nT and 8 nT. By midday on 04 July, total field, density, solar wind speed and temperature all began to increase indicating the arrival of a CIR preceding the anticipated recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Total field reached a maximum of 23 nT at 04/1901 UTC with the Bz component reaching a maximum southward deflection of -22 nT at 04/1911 UTC. Solar wind speed increased from the mid 300 km/s to 604 km/s by 04/2023 UTC before declining to just over 500 km/s by the end of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) storm periods late on 04 July though early on 05 July.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 July – 01 August 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares from 06 July through 24 July with the return of old Regions 2367 (S20, L=002) and 2371 (N13, L=302). Very low to low levels are expected from 25 July through 01 August.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 07-08 July and again from 12-15 July in response to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active levels on 06 July as a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS persists. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm conditions are expected from 10-11 July due to the arrival of a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected once again from 31 July through 01 August due to the return of the recurrent negative polarity CH HSS.
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Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Jun 29 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jun 29 0647 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 – 28 June 2015
Solar activity was at low to high levels. The period began at high levels when Region 2371 (N13, L=302, class/area Fkc/1180 on 21 June) produced an M6/2b flare at 22/1823 UTC with an associated Castelli-U spectral burst, Type II radio sweep (1480 km/s), 1000 sfu Tenflare, and a full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with an approximate speed of 1047 km/s. Solar activity returned to high levels again on 25 June as Region 2371 produced a long-duration M7/3b flare at 25/0816 UTC with associated Type II (2056 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, 3800 sfu Tenflare, and an asymmetric full halo CME with an approximate speed of 1500 km/s. Region 2371 remained relatively quiet and stable after 25 June, only producing low-level C-class flaring for the rest of the period.
A greater than 10 MeV proton event was in progress at the beginning of the period. The event began at 21/2135 UTC, likely associated with an M2/1n flare at 21/0142 UTC from Region 2371, reached a maximum flux value of 1070 pfu at 22/1900 UTC and ended 24/0705 UTC. A brief enhancement to the S3 (Strong) levels was observed due to a shock enhancement from the arrival of the 21 June CME. Another greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 26/0350 UTC in association with an M7/3b flare at 25/0816 UTC from Region 2371, reached a maximum of 22 pfu (S1-Minor) at 27/0030 UTC and ended at 27/0755 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high levels through the period with the exception of 23 June. A maximum flux of 26,376 pfu was observed at 24/1620 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to severe storm conditions. At 22/0451 UTC, a small shock was observed at the NASA/ACE spacecraft. Total field increased from 8 nT to 17 nT with a corresponding solar wind increase from 360 km/s to 431 km/s. The shock was associated with the arrival of the 19 June CME caused by a filament eruption in the SE quadrant observed in SDO/AIA imagery beginning at 19/0500 UTC. A geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) of 19 nT (Guam) was observed at 22/0545 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to active levels. At 22/1759 UTC, another shock was observed in ACE data from the 21 June CME associated with a double peak M2 flare from Region 2371 at 21/0142 UTC. Total field increased to a maximum of 41 nT at 22/1935 UTC, solar wind speed increased to 737 km/s and the Bz component went negative to -39 nT at 22/1850 UTC. A prolonged period of mostly southward Bz occurred between 23/0013 UTC and 23/1246 UTC reaching as high as -25 nT. An SI of 48 nT (Hartland) was observed at 21/1650 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with minor to major storm levels with severe storm periods observed between 22/1800-2100 UTC and 23/0000-0600 UTC. At 24/1258 UTC, the 22 June CME associated with the M6/2b flare on 22 June was observed in ACE data. Solar wind speeds increased from approximately 550 km/s to around 760 km/s with a relatively weak increase in total field from 5 nT to 13 nT. The Bz component was mostly positive during this event with negative values reaching a maximum of -11 nT between 25/0547 UTC and 25/1357 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with only quiet to active periods on 24 June, but increased to minor to major storm levels mid-period on 25 June. Another CME associated with the M7/3b flare on 25 June arrived at 27/0223 UTC at the ACE spacecraft. Solar wind speeds increased from near 475 km/s to 860 km/s before slowly decreasing to 480 km/s by the end of the day. Total field reached a maximum of 13 nT at 27/0304 UTC and the Bz component was variable between +9 nT and -7 nT. As a result, the geomagnetic field never increased beyond unsettled conditions.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 June – 25 July 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity from 30 June through 24 July with the return of old Regions 2365 (S13, L=079) on 30 June, 2367 (S20, L=002) on 05 July, and 2371 (N13, L=302) on 11 July.
There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event from 11 July through 24 July with the return of old Region 2371 to the visible disk.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 29-30 Jun and again from 08-19 July due to residual CME effects and recurrent coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS).
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels from 06-08 July and again from 11-12 July due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
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Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Jun 22 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jun 22 0548 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 – 21 June 2015
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Weak to mid-level C-class flares were observed on 15-17 Jun from Regions 2360 (N15, L=129, class/area Eac/220 on 12 Jun), 2367 (S20, L=002, class/area Ekc/400 on 15 Jun), 2268 (S06, L=100, class/area Bxo/010 on 14 Jun) and 2371 (N13, L=302, class/area Fkc/1180 on 21 Jun). Activity increased to moderate levels (R1-minor) on 18 Jun. Old Region 2365 (S13, L=079) produced a long duration event (LDE) M1 flare at 18/0127 UTC. At 18/1736 UTC, Region 2371 produced an M3/1n LDE with associated Type IV and Tenflare (2200 sfu) radio emissions. Associated with this event was an asymmetric, full-halo CME first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 18/1724 UTC.
19 Jun saw a return to low levels with weak to high-level C-class flares observed from Region 2371. At about 19/0500 UTC, a large filament eruption was observed in the SSE quadrant of the disk. Associated with this eruption was a partial-halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 19/0845 UTC. Moderate levels returned on 20 Jun with an M1/if flare observed at 20/0648 UTC. 21 Jun saw a total of 4 M-class class flares. Region 2371 produced an M2/1n flare at 21/0142 UTC with associated Type II (682 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions. Also associated with this event was a full-halo CME. Shortly afterward, this same region produced an M2.6 x-ray event. At 21/0944 UTC, Region 2367 produced an M3/2b flare followed by an M1 x-ray event at 21/1820 UTC.
A pair of 10 MeV at greater than or equal to 10 pfu proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The first event began at 18/1135 UTC, reached a maximum of 16 pfu at 18/1445 UTC and ended at 19/0230 UTC. This event was associated with the M1 flare from old Region 2365 observed at 18/0127 UTC. The second event began at 21/2035 UTC and reached at peak of near 50 pfu at the end of the summary period and was still rising. This event was associated with the M1 flare from Region 2367 observed at 21/1820 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels through the entire summary period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels through the period. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 15-17 Jun with isolated active periods observed on 15 and 17 Jun. This activity was due to positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE satellite, indicated wind speeds of near 600 km/s early on 15 Jun decreasing to about 450 km/s by the end of the 17th. Total field ranged between 4-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately positive (away) orientation. Predominately quiet conditions were observed on 18 Jun through late on 21 June. Solar wind speeds decreased from about 450 km/s early on 18 June to near 275 km/s by 21/1540 UTC. During this same time frame, total field ranged between 1-6 nT, Bz varied between +4 nT to -3 nT and phi remained mostly positive. After 21/1540 UTC, wind speed increased to about 360 km/s, Bt increased to 12 nT, Bz varied between +8 nT to -7 nT and phi briefly rotated to a negative (towards) sector. This deviation indicated a possible co-rotating interaction region in advance of an anticipated positive polarity CH HSS.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 June – 18 July 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels (R1-R2, minor-moderate). Active Regions 2367 and 2371, and the return of old Region 2365 on 30 Jun, are expected to keep activity levels enhanced through the outlook period.
The 10 MeV at greater than or equal to 10 pfu proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at the S1 (minor) to S2 (moderate) levels through 24 Jun. Effects from the 21 Jun M1 flare, coupled with multiple shocks from the 18, 19 and 21 Jun CMEs, are expected to keep proton flux above event levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 22 Jun through 06 Jul. Moderate to high levels are expected on 07-18 Jul due to CH HSS effects.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels (G1-G3, minor-strong) on 22-24 Jun. This activity is due to the expected arrival of the three CMEs from 18, 19 and 21 Jun. Unsettled to active periods are expected on 06-08 Jul, 12-13 Jul and 18 Jul, along with minor storm periods (G1-minor) on 05 and 11 Jul, due to CIR/CH HSS effects. Predominately quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
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Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Jun 15 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jun 15 0323 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 – 14 June 2015
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels (R1-minor) with very low activity observed on 08 June, low activity observed on 09, 10 and 12 June and moderate activity observed on 11, 13 and 14 June. A majority of the flare activity occurred from Regions 2360 (N15, L=129, class/area Eac/220 on 12 June) and 2367 (S20, L=001, class/area Ekc/340 on 14 June). Region 2367, the largest region on the disk, produced an M1 flare at 11/0855 UTC. This region exhibited steady growth since first rotating onto the disk on 10 June. Region 2360 produced an M1/Sf flare at 13/0729 UTC and an M2 flare at 14/0059 UTC while exiting the west limb on the 14th. Multiple filament eruptions and eruptive prominences were observed throughout the week, but none resulted in Earth-directed coronal mass ejections.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 08-09 June. High levels on 10-13 June and moderate levels on 14 June were observed in response to an enhanced solar wind environment caused by the influence of a negative polarity coronal high speed stream (CH HSS).
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm levels (G1-minor) observed on 08 and 14 June and an isolated major storm period (G2-moderate) observed on 08 June. The summary period began with unsettled to major storm levels as Earth was under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Effects from the CH HSS persisted through midday on 11 June with quiet to active conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed for the remainder of 11 June through 13 June. The period ended on 14 June with a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a positive polarity CH HSS that affected Earth's geomagnetic field with unsettled to isolated minor storm periods.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 June – 11 July 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-minor) flare activity from 15-24 June from Region 2367 (S20, L=001). As region 2367 rotates off the disk, very low to low levels are expected on 25-26 June. Activity levels are expected to increase to low with a slight chance for M-class flare activity on 27 June – 11 July as old Region 2360 (N15, L=129) rotates back on to the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is anticipated to reach moderate to high levels on 15-19 Jun and 07-11 Jul in response to an enhanced solar wind environment caused by the influence of coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSSs). Normal levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 15-16 Jun and 06-08 Jul with minor storm levels (G1-minor) anticipated on 05 Jul and 11 Jul in response to recurrent CH HSS effects. Generally quiet field conditions are expected for 17 Jun-04 Jul.
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Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Jun 08 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jun 08 0221 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 – 07 June 2015
Solar activity was low this period. Low to mid-level C-class flare activity dominated the period and Region 2361 (N16, L=105, class/area=Dai/110 on 06 Jun) was responsible for the bulk of the activity. Region 2361 produced a total of nine C-class flares throughout the week, the largest of which was C8/Sf flare at 0947 UTC on 04 Jun. Region 2360 (N15, L=132, class/area=Eac/140 on 07 Jun) grew in total sunspot count, area, and magnetic complexity late in the week but was only responsible for three low-level C-class flares this period. In addition to the low-level solar activity, multiple disappearing solar filaments and eruptive prominence liftoffs were observed throughout the week, but none resulted in Earth-directed coronal mass ejections.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the period under an ambient solar wind environment with unsettled levels observed early on 01 Jun and late on 07 Jun which were attributed to minor perturbations in the solar wind.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 June – 04 July 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flare activity for 08-16 Jun due to the flare potential from Regions 2360 (N15, L=132), 2361 (N16, L=105), and 2362 (N07, L=100). As Regions 2360, 2361, and 2362 rotate off the visible disk, very low levels of solar activity are expected with a chance for C-class flare activity for 17 Jun-04 Jul.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is anticipated to reach high levels on 10-14 Jun with moderate levels likely on 15-19 Jun in response to an enhanced solar wind environment caused by the influence of coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSSs). Normal levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 08, 10 Jun with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions anticipated on 09 Jun in response to a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled geomagnetic field conditions are expected on 11-12 Jun as CH HSS effects subside. A recurrent positive polarity CH HSS is expected to bring about isolated periods of unsettled conditions on 15 Jun. Generally quiet field conditions are expected for 16 Jun-03 Jul with unsettled levels likely again on 04 Jul due to a solar sector boundary crossing ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS.
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Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Jun 01 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jun 01 0141 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 – 31 May 2015
Solar activity was at very low levels for the majority of the period with the exception of 27 May when low levels were observed. The period was dominated by only low-to-mid level B-class flares with an isolated C1 flare at 2131 UTC on 27 May. The only C-class event of the period originated from Region 2456 (S16, L=199, class/area=Cso/70 on 30 May) but no coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed with this event. Multiple prominence and filament eruptions were observed throughout the period but none resulted in Earth-directed CMEs.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was generally quiet throughout the period with an isolated period of unsettled activity observed between 27/1200-1500 UTC.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 June – 27 June 2015
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels on 15-19 Jun and high levels on 10-14 Jun with normal levels expected for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active levels on 10 and 14-15 Jun with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely on 08-09 Jun, all in response to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream influence. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic field activity is expected for the remainder of the period.
Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/
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