Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Jun 15 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jun 15 0323 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 – 14 June 2015
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels (R1-minor) with very low activity observed on 08 June, low activity observed on 09, 10 and 12 June and moderate activity observed on 11, 13 and 14 June. A majority of the flare activity occurred from Regions 2360 (N15, L=129, class/area Eac/220 on 12 June) and 2367 (S20, L=001, class/area Ekc/340 on 14 June). Region 2367, the largest region on the disk, produced an M1 flare at 11/0855 UTC. This region exhibited steady growth since first rotating onto the disk on 10 June. Region 2360 produced an M1/Sf flare at 13/0729 UTC and an M2 flare at 14/0059 UTC while exiting the west limb on the 14th. Multiple filament eruptions and eruptive prominences were observed throughout the week, but none resulted in Earth-directed coronal mass ejections.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 08-09 June. High levels on 10-13 June and moderate levels on 14 June were observed in response to an enhanced solar wind environment caused by the influence of a negative polarity coronal high speed stream (CH HSS).
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm levels (G1-minor) observed on 08 and 14 June and an isolated major storm period (G2-moderate) observed on 08 June. The summary period began with unsettled to major storm levels as Earth was under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Effects from the CH HSS persisted through midday on 11 June with quiet to active conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed for the remainder of 11 June through 13 June. The period ended on 14 June with a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a positive polarity CH HSS that affected Earth's geomagnetic field with unsettled to isolated minor storm periods.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 June – 11 July 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-minor) flare activity from 15-24 June from Region 2367 (S20, L=001). As region 2367 rotates off the disk, very low to low levels are expected on 25-26 June. Activity levels are expected to increase to low with a slight chance for M-class flare activity on 27 June – 11 July as old Region 2360 (N15, L=129) rotates back on to the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is anticipated to reach moderate to high levels on 15-19 Jun and 07-11 Jul in response to an enhanced solar wind environment caused by the influence of coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSSs). Normal levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 15-16 Jun and 06-08 Jul with minor storm levels (G1-minor) anticipated on 05 Jul and 11 Jul in response to recurrent CH HSS effects. Generally quiet field conditions are expected for 17 Jun-04 Jul.
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Propagation has been a real disappointment in Texas. Somewhat due to weather as well. 12, 15 & 17 meters poor from here.