Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Jul 06 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2015 Jul 06 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jul 06 0524 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 June – 05 July 2015

Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels this period. Low levels were observed during the majority of the period with moderate levels observed on 03 July and very low levels on 05 July. The majority of the C-flare activity occurred from Regions 2373 (N16, L=141, class/area Dso/150 on 01 July), 2376 (N13, L=124, class/area Eai/150 on 01 July) and 2378 (S16, L=086, class/area Cso/090 on 04 July). Region 2378 produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive M1/1n flare at 03/1251 UTC. New Region 2381 (N15, L=073, class/area Dao/100 on 05 July) emerged near the NE limb on 03 July and grew moderately on 05 July, however had not produced significant flare activity by the time of this report. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were noted during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit, however there was an enhancement from 29-30 July as levels were decaying from the 10 MeV proton event that occurred from 26/0350 UTC through 27/0755 UTC associated with an M7/3b flare at 25/0816 UTC. Another enhancement to 5 pfu (Below S1-Minor) was observed from 01-02 July, likely due to flare/CME activity from beyond the west limb at 01/1436 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 29 June through 04 July reaching a maximum flux value of 9,670 pfu at 30/1725 UTC. Electron flux decreased to normal levels on 05 July in response to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with solar wind parameters at nominal levels for the majority of the week. Solar wind speeds ranged from 300 km/s to 450 km/s and total field values were between 1 nT and 8 nT. By midday on 04 July, total field, density, solar wind speed and temperature all began to increase indicating the arrival of a CIR preceding the anticipated recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Total field reached a maximum of 23 nT at 04/1901 UTC with the Bz component reaching a maximum southward deflection of -22 nT at 04/1911 UTC. Solar wind speed increased from the mid 300 km/s to 604 km/s by 04/2023 UTC before declining to just over 500 km/s by the end of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) storm periods late on 04 July though early on 05 July.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 July – 01 August 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares from 06 July through 24 July with the return of old Regions 2367 (S20, L=002) and 2371 (N13, L=302). Very low to low levels are expected from 25 July through 01 August.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 07-08 July and again from 12-15 July in response to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active levels on 06 July as a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS persists. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm conditions are expected from 10-11 July due to the arrival of a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected once again from 31 July through 01 August due to the return of the recurrent negative polarity CH HSS.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

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