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Weekly Propagation Summary – 2019 Oct 14 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2019 Oct 14 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Oct 14 0407 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 – 13 October 2019

Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 08-13 Oct and at high levels on 07 Oct. The maximum flux of the period was 1,930 pfu observed at 07/1745 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The period started off at nominal levels with solar wind speeds in the 350-405 km/s range. by 09 Oct, total field increased to 11 nT at 09/2135 UTC followed by an increase in solar wind speed to approximately 490 km/s as a weak negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moved into geoeffective positon. Solar wind speed remained enhanced through late on 11 Oct. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active conditions on 09-10 Oct and quiet to unsettled levels on 11 Oct.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 October – 09 November 2019

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate levels on 16 and 24 Oct and again on 04-09 Nov. High levels are expected on 14-15 Oct and on 25 Oct-03 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 14-15 Oct due to possible weak CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 21 Oct and 24-28 with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 24-25 Oct due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2019 Oct 07 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2019 Oct 07 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Oct 07 0338 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 September – 06 October 2019

Solar activity was very low throughout the past week. No active regions with sunspots were observed nor were there any coronal mass ejections.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels each day of the summary period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 30 Sep and 01 Oct due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 October – 02 November 2019

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 07-09 Oct and 25 Oct-2 Nov. Normal or normal to moderate levels are expected to persist through the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 24-25 Oct due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Active conditions are expected on 21 and 26 Oct with quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions likely throughout the remainder of the period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2019 Sep 30 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2019 Sep 30 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Sep 30 0233 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 – 29 September 2019

Solar activity was very low throughout the summary period and no active regions with sunspots were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels on 29 Sep with high levels observed on 28 Sep. Normal and normal to moderate flux values were observed throughout the remainder of the week.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 27-28 Sep due to the influence of a recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Active conditions were observed on 24 and 29 Sep and quiet or quiet to unsettled conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 September – 26 October 2019

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 30 Sep-12, 14, and 25-26 Oct. Normal and normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 24-25 Oct and active levels on 06, 21, and 26 Oct due to coronal hole high speed stream influences.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2019 Sep 23 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2019 Sep 23 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Sep 23 0156 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 – 22 September 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels. No sunspots were observed on the visible disk. An approximately 20 degree filament erupted near S35W02 around 19/2200 UTC which produced a narrow, slow-moving CME signature near the Sun-Earth line. Modeling of the event suggested most of the ejecta was oriented south and eastward of Earth's orbit; however, Earth may still observe weak influence from the periphery of the CME.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels from 16-21 Sep and dropped to just normal levels through 22 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to active conditions. Elevated wind speeds from a waning positive polarity CH HSS produced isolated active conditions on 16 Sep. Variable phi angle on 17 Sep suggested influence from a SSBC, cause a period of isolated active conditions. Quiet to unsettled levels on 18 Sep decreased to just quiet levels on 19-20 Sep. A brief period of southward Bz produced a single period of unsettled on 21 Sep. The remainder of the summary period was quiet.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 September – 19 October 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels over the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are expected on 28 Sep – 12 Oct and 14 Oct; moderate levels are expected on 24-27 Sep, 13 Oct, and 15-18 Oct. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at normal levels. All enhancements in electron flux are in anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 levels are expected on 28 Sep followed by G1 (Minor) geomagnetic levels on 29 Sep. Active conditions are expected on 23-25 Sep, 30 Sep and 06 Oct. Unsettled conditions are expected on 26-27 Sep, 01-03 Oct, 10 Oct and 12-15 Oct. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are in anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2019 Sep 16 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2019 Sep 16 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Sep 16 0139 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 – 15 September 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels. No spots were observed on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was moderate to high levels throughout the summary period due to influence from multiple CH HSSs. A maximum flux of 8,450 pfu was observed at 09/1745 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. An isolated period of active was observed on 09 Sep in response to a positive polarity CH HSS increasing solar wind speeds to ~525 km/s. Isolated unsettled conditions, associated with further enhancements from multiple positive polarity CH HSSs, were observed on 12-15 Sep. Quiet conditions were observed over the remainder of the summary period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 September – 12 October 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels over the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 16-19 Sep and 27 Sep – 12 Oct. Moderate levels are expected from 20-26 Sep. All enhancements in electron flux are due to elevated wind speeds from multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm levels. G2 conditions are likely on 27-28 Sep; G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 29 Sep; active conditions are likely on 30 Sep and 02 Oct; unsettled conditions are likely on 16-18 Sep, 23 Sep, 26 Sep, 01 Oct, 03 Oct, 06 Oct, 10 Oct and 12 Oct. All enhancements in geomagnetic active are in response to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet under nominal solar wind conditions.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2019 Sep 09 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2019 Sep 09 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Sep 09 0301 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 – 08 September 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2748 (N14, L=205, class/area Hsx/020 on 02 Sep) was quiet and stable and decayed to plage on 03 Sep. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels on 02-04 Sep and high levels on 05-08 Sep. Electron flux reached a maximum of 87,900 pfu at 04/1835 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (minor) storm levels on 02 Sep due to effects from a large, recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. From 03-06 Sep, quiet to active levels were observed as HSS effects continued. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed from 07-08 Sep. Wind speeds began the period near 750 km/s, but slowly decayed to end the period near 400 km/s.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 September – 05 October 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 09-13 Sep, and again from 27 Sep – 06 Oct due to HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 14-26 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 09-26 Sep. Isolated unsettled periods are possible on 23, 26 and 30 Sep, and 01-03 Oct. G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 27-29 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS effects.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2019 Sep 02 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2019 Sep 02 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Sep 02 0207 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 August – 01 September 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 2748 (N14, L=205, class/area Bxo/010 on 01 Sep) emerged on the disk, but remained quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 26 Aug, normal levels on 27-30 Aug, high levels on 31 Aug and very high levels on 01 Sep. Electron flux reached a maximum of 53,007 pfu at 01/2015 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels on 26-27 Aug due to influence from a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions persisted from late on 27 Aug through midday on 30 Aug. From midday on 30 Aug through 01 Sep, field activity increased to unsettled to G1 (minor) and G2 (moderate) levels as Earth came under the influence of a large, recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. 30 Aug saw a SSBC from a negative to a positive sector in advance of a CIR, all preceding the CH HSS. 31 Aug and 01 Sep observed active to G1 and G2 storm conditions. Wind speeds averaged about 750 km/s during this time frame with a peak of 835 km/s observed early on 01 Sep.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 September – 28 September 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high to very high levels on 02-13 Sep and again on 27-28 Sep. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 14-26 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (minor) storm levels on 02 Sep and G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) storm levels on 27-28 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Unsettled levels are expected on 03, 07-08, 23, and 26 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..


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  • Matt W1MST, Managing Editor