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Weekly Propagation Summary – 2020 Jan 20 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2020 Jan 20 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2020 Jan 20 0748 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 – 19 January 2020

Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels throughout the reporting period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet with an isolated period of unsettled conditions on 16 Jan under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 January – 15 February 2020

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 21-22 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Moderate levels are anticipated for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 20-21 Jan with unsettled conditions forecasted on 22 Jan and 01-05 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2020 Jan 13 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2020 Jan 13 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2020 Jan 13 0408 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 – 12 January 2020

Solar activity was very low. Region 2755 (S34, L=355, class/area Bxo/020 on 03 Jan) decayed to plage on 07 January and was absent of significant flare activity during the period. New Region 2756 (N22, L=017, class/area Cro/030 on 09 Jan) produced dual B1 flares at 10/1159 UTC and 10/1445 UTC before decaying to plage on 11 January. Both regions, one in the northern hemisphere and one in the southern hemisphere, presented in satellite imagery with reverse polarity magnetic field structure. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels on 09-12 Jan due to coronal hole influence. Normal levels were observed on 06-08 Jan.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 06 and 09 Jan, unsettled levels on 08 and 10 Jan due to influence from negative polarity CH HSS activity. Quiet conditions prevailed throughout the remainder of the reporting period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 January – 08 February 2020

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate levels on 13-22 Jan and 05-08 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Normal levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 14-15 Jan and 02-04 Feb, with unsettled conditions on 13, 16 Jan and 01, 05 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Quiet conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2020 Jan 06 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2020 Jan 06 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2020 Jan 06 0724 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 December – 05 January 2020

Solar activity was very low. New Region 2755 (S34, L=355, class/area Bxo/020 on 03 Jan) developed on the SE limb on 01 Jan but was in decay by 04 Jan. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 30 Dec-04 Jan. Moderate levels were reached on 05 Jan with a maximum flux of 245 pfu observed at 05/1800 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 30 Dec-02 Jan under nominal solar wind conditions. On 03 Jan, total field increased to 10 nT at 03/0505 UTC with solar wind speed increasing to around 410 km/s. On 04 Jan, a prolonged period of southward Bz was observed reaching a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT. On 05 Jan, total field increased once again to 15 nT at 05/1743 UTC followed by an increase in solar wind speed to near 550 km/s as a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. The geomagnetic field responded with isolated unsettled periods on 03-04 Jan and quiet to active levels on 05 Jan.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 January – 01 February 2020

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels on 08-14 Jan and 23 Jan-01 Feb. Moderate levels are expected on 06-07 Jan and again on 15-22 Jan.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 08-10 Jan and 01 Feb. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 06 Jan and14-15 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2019 Dec 30 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2019 Dec 30 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Dec 30 0435 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 – 29 December 2019

Solar activity was very low. New Region 2753 (S29, L=122, class/area Bxo/010 on 25 Dec) developed on the visible disk on late on 23 December while Region 2754 (N25, L=191, class/area Axx/010 on 25 Dec) developed on 24 Dec. Both regions were inactive and decayed to plage on 26 Dec. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 27-29 Dec and reached moderate levels on 23-26 Dec. The maximum flux of the period was 462 pfu observed at 25/1810 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. A slight enhancement in solar wind parameters occurred beginning late on 25 Dec as a weak negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. Total field increased to a maximum of 9 nT at 25/1920 UTC while solar wind speed reached a maximum of 415 km/s at 26/1435 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with an isolated unsettled period early on 26 Dec.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 December – 25 January 2020

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels on 06-14 and 23-25 Jan while moderate levels are expected on 30 Dec-05 Jan and 15-22 Jan.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 30 Dec-01 Jan due to weak CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 14-15 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

“BEST REGARDSES” AND “BEST REGARDS’S”

Meme: Car and Woman Arguing, 73

Meme: Car and Woman Arguing, 73

“Best regardses” and “Best regards’s”

That’s silly, of course. We who speak and write in the English language know that you should not pluralize a word that is already in its plural form. “Best regards” means, “I wish you the best of regards.” It is implied that there is more than one regard. Perhaps there are a few, perhaps many more. It then is clear that we wouldn’t normally pluralize “regards,” into, “regardses.”

It is also silly to say that the best of regards owns something.  How can a regard let alone a group of regards own anything?  So, why “73’s” when written?

Old SWLer QSL Card With 73's

Old SWLer QSL Card With 73’s

The usage of “73” comes from early landline telegraph (typically railroad telegraphy landlines). Originally devised in the era of telegraphs, 73 and other numbers were used to speed up the transmission of common messages over landlines by mapping common messages to these specific numbers.  And, numbers were quicker to send than the longer messages the numbers replaced.

QST, April 1935, on page 60, contains a short article on the origin of the amateur radio vernacular, 73. This article was a summation of another article that appeared in the “December Bulletin from the Navy Department Office of the Chief of Naval Operations,” published December of 1934.

Landline (Railroad) Morse Code

A skilled landline Morse code operator, in action.

Here’s a quotation from that Navy article:

“It appears from a research of telegraph histories that in 1859 the [land-line] telegraph people held a convention, and one of its features was a discussion as to the saving of ‘line time.’

A committee was appointed to devise a code to reduce standard expressions to symbols or figures. This committee worked out a figure code, from figure 1 to 92.

Most of these figure symbols became obsolescent, but a few remain to this date, such as 4, which means “Where shall I go ahead?’. Figure 9 means ‘wire,’ the wire chief being on the wire and that everyone should close their keys. Symbol 13 means ‘I don’t understand’; 22 is ‘love and a kiss’; 30 means ‘good night’ or ‘the end.’

The symbol most often used now is 73, which means ‘my compliments’ and 92 is for the word ‘deliver.’ The other figures in between the forgoing have fallen into almost complete disuse.”

We can see, then, that “73” mapped to “best regards” or “my compliments” and was intended as a general valediction for transmitted messages.  That’s why it is silly to say, “73s,” as that maps to, “best regardses” – 73s adds the plural to a plural.  (And, don’t make it possessive, as in using, “73’s” – a regard cannot own something).

Jeeves, there's no plural for 73

Cartoon: Jeeves, there is no plural for 73…

For reference and some more interesting background on this, see http://www.signalharbor.com/73.html

An example of on-the-air conversation (or, QSO—“QSO” is the shorthand Q-code for, “two-way exchange of communications”) illustrates proper usage of 73. When saying your goodbye, you would tap out the Morse code as follows:

TNX FER FB QSO. C U AGN. 73 ES HPY NEW YR.

That is interpreted as, “Thanks for the fine-business chat. I hope to see you again for another chat. Best regards and happy new year.”

This, if you choose to throw around shorthand Morse code number codes when you are speaking, you wouldn’t say, “73s.” You would say, “73.”

Old Man Hiram Percy Maxim 1AW QSL Card with 73's

The Old Man Hiram Percy Maxim 1AW used 73’s on his QSL cards.

My friend, David Edenfield, opined, “This idea is beyond turning into glue from the dead horse it’s beating again. This is so petty to be concerned with this. Even the Old Man Hiram Percy Maxim 1AW used 73s on his QSL cards.”

Well, even Hiram Percy Maxim has been incorrect and incorrectly used grammar. (chuckle)

There is something to be said about teaching new amateur radio operators the best of our traditions, history, skills, procedures, protocols, ethics, and culture. There’s no rational argument that can make a case that allowing these aspects of our service and hobby to degrade over time (by the lack of Elmering) is a good way to see our service and hobby thrive and progress.

I don’t see any slippage from high standards as being a good strategy for nurturing growth, progress, and effectiveness of our service and hobby. Keeping some level of excellence in every aspect of our hobby can only be beneficial.

In this case, how many new hams that learn to repeat ham lingo know anything of the history behind the common “73?” My dead horse turned glue is educational and it is my belief that educating about origins elevates the current.

73 – NW7US

NW7US QSL Card (circa 2019)

NW7US QSL Card (circa 2019)

..

 

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2019 Dec 23 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2019 Dec 23 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Dec 23 0449 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 – 22 December 2019

Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 16-18 Dec and reached moderate levels on 19-22 Dec. The largest flux of the period was 737 pfu observed at 22/1825 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels on 16-17 Dec with solar wind speeds between 330-425 km/s. By early on 18 Dec, total field increased to a maximum of 12 nT at 18/1015 UTC while solar wind speed increased to near 550 km/s by midday on 18 Dec as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moved into geoeffective position. By late on 19 Dec, solar wind speed was in decline and finished the period near 360 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet levels on 16-17 Dec and 20-22 Dec and quiet to active conditions on 18-19 Dec.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 December – 18 January 2020

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels on 23 Dec-05 Jan and 15-18 Jan. Normal levels are expected on 06-14 Jan.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 25-27 Dec and unsettled to active levels on 14-15 Jan due to CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2019 Dec 16 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2019 Dec 16 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Dec 16 0128 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 – 15 December 2019

Solar activity was very low throughout the period. No active regions with sunspots were observed and no earth-directed CMEs were detected in satellite imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal and normal to moderate levels throughout the week.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 09 and 11 Dec with quiet conditions observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 December – 11 January 2020

Solar activity is expected to be very quiet throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 21-25 Dec. Normal and normal to moderate flux levels are expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 18-19 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to persist throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..


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  • Matt W1MST, Managing Editor