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Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jan 11 0123 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 – 10 January 2016

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Very low activity was observed on 04-05 January and 08-10 January while isolated low activity occured on 06-07 January. A pair of C1 x-ray events were observed from Region 2480 (N02, L=125, class/area Eso/190 on 10 Jan) on 06/1137 UTC and 07/0617 UTC, respectively. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the summary period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels on 04-05 January and 08-10 January. On 06 January, activity increased to unsettled to active levels with an isolated period of minor storming (G1-Minor) observed early on the 6th. Unsettled to active conditions persisted through late on the 7th. This increase in activity was due to the presence of a recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE satellite, indicated an increase in wind speeds early on 06 Jan from about 475 km/s to a peak of 643 km/s at 06/1025 UTC. Wind speeds remained elevated between 575 – 625 km/s through about 07/2000 UTC when a gradual decline to about 430 km/s were observed through the end of the summary period. Total field (Bt) averaged about 5 nT for a majority of the period, but ranged from 7-16 nT from 05/0820 UTC – 06/0131 UTC. The Bz component varied between +/- 4 nT with increased variability recorded between +12 nT to -10 nT from 05/0935 UTC to 06/0022 UTC. The phi angle was in a predominately positive (away for the Sun) orientation throughout the summary period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 January – 06 February 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels from 11-14 January and from 29 January – 06 February. From 15-28 January, activity levels are expected to increase to low to moderate levels (R1-Minor) due to the return of old active Region 2473 (S21, L=334).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 11-12, 17-22, 26-28 January and 31 January – 02 February. High levels are expected on 13-16, 23-25, 29-30 January and 03-06 February due to enhanced winds from a series of geoeffective CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions on 12-13, 22-23, 28-29 January and 02-03 February with isolated minor storm levels (G1-Minor) likely on 12 and 18 January, all due to a series of recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remaining days of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jan 04 0534 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 December – 03 January 2016

Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels. Very low activity was observed on 03 Jan, low level activity on 29 Dec – 01 Jan, and moderate level activity on 28 Dec and 02 Jan. Region 2473 (S22, L=331, class/area=Fkc/590 on 26 Dec), which exhibited a complex beta-gamma-delta configuration, produced all of the significant flare activity (2 M-class, 14 C-class).

On 28 Dec, Region 2473 produced an M1 flare at 28/1245 UTC. Associated with this event was a Type IV radio emission and a partial-halo CME observed off the southern portion of the disk, first visible in LASCO coronagraph imagery at 12/1212 UTC. Analysis of this CME determined that an Earth-directed component was present.

On 02 Jan, Region 2473 produced a long duration M2 flare at 02/0011 UTC. Associated with this event were Type II (1095 km/s) and IV radio emissions and an assymetric partial-halo CME observed off the southwest limb, first visible in LASCO coronagraph imagery at 01/2324 UTC. Analysis of this CME determined that a weak Earth-directed component was present and would arrive around midday on 03 Jan, though eventually proved to be a miss.

There was greater than 10 MeV proton event on 02 Januaury 2016. The event began at 02/0430 UTC shortly after a long duration M2 flare that accured at 02/0011 UTC. Proton flux reached a maximum flux value of 21 pfu (S1-Minor) at 02/0450 UTC and ended at 02/0750 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period with the exception of 31 December when moderate flux levels were observed. A maximum flux of 6,782 pfu was observed at 03/1600 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to moderate (G2) storm conditions. At 31/0003 a small shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft. Total field (Bt) increased from 5 nT to 13 nT with a corresponding solar wind speed increase from 350 km/s to 500 km/s. The shock was associated with the arrival of the 28 Dec CME observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 28/1212 UTC. Isolated G1-Minor to G2-Moderate storm conditions were observed midday through late on 31 Dec as well as early on 01 Jan. Mostly quiet conditions were observed on 28 – 30 Dec, 02-03 Jan.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 January – 30 January 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare activity from 15 Jan – 28 Jan due to the return of Region 2473 (S22, L=331). Very low solar activity is expected for the remainder of the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be high from 04 – 13 Jan, 25 – 30 Jan due to recurrent coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS).

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active levels on 04, 07, and 22 Jan with G1-Minor storm conditions on 06 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the rest of the period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Dec 28 0317 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 – 27 December 2015

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels (R1-Minor) with low activity observed on 25, 26, and 27 Dec, and moderate activity observed on 21, 22, 23, and 24 Dec. The majority of the flare activity occurred from Regions 2472 and 2473. Region 2472 (N04, L=331, class/area Dai/170 on 23 Dec) produced an M2/Sf at 21/0103 UTC and an M1/1n at 21/1014 UTC before decaying. Region 2473 (S22, L-331, class/area Fkc/590 on 26 Dec), the largest region on the disk, produced an M1/Sf at 22/0341 UTC, an M4/1f at 23/0040 UTC, and an M1 at 24/0212 UTC. Multiple eruptions were observed in coronagraph imagery, but all were directed off the east limb and none were geoeffective.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to high levels through the entire week 21 December – 27 December.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) storm levels early on 21 Dec due to effects from a CME that erupted on 16 Dec. G2 storm condtions were observed from 21/0000-0600 UTC, with G1 storm conditions occurring in the 21/0600-0900 UTC synoptic period. Solar wind parameters at the ACE spacecraft were enhanced with Bt reaching as high as 18 nT and prolonged periods of southward magnetic field (-Bz). An isolated period of active conditions was observed early on 22 Dec due to lingering CME effects. Active conditions occurred late on 23 Dec due to weak substorming. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 24, 25, and 27 Dec. The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm conditions late on 26 Dec (26/2100-2359 UTC) due to a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 December – 23 January 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels (R1-Minor) throughout the period. Moderate activity is likely through 03 Jan as Regions 2472 (N04, L=329) and 2473 (S22, L=332) rotate off the disk. Low activity levels are expected on 04-23 Jan with moderate activity possible on 15-23 Jan as Regions 2472 and 2473 rotate back onto the visible side of the disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 28 Dec – 12 Jan in response to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 13-23 Jan.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active levels on 01, 03 Jan with G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 02 Jan due to a positive polarity CH HSS. G1 storm conditions are likely again on 06 Jan with active levels following on 07 Jan due to a positve polarity CH HSS. 10 and 11 Jan are likely to see G1 storm and active conditions, respectively due to a negative polarity CH HSS. Generally quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 13-23 Jan.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Dec 21 0423 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 – 20 December 2015

Solar activity was at low levels. The period was dominated by low to mid-level C-class flare activity from a number of active regions, the largest of which was a C6/1f flare at 16/0903 UTC from Region 2468 (S15, L=128, class/area=Dao/120 on 10 Dec). Region 2468 was the most productive region on the visible disk throughout the summary period, however, an unnumbered region behind the northeast limb produced multiple mid-level C-class flares within quick succession and caused a slow increase in the background GOES-15 x-ray flux late in the period.

Two asymmetrical full-halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery on 16 Dec. The first CME was observed in C2 imagery beginning at 16/0924 UTC and was associated with the C6/1F flare mentioned above. The second CME, associated with a filament eruption, was first observed in coronagraph imagery at 16/1436 UTC. Both CMEs were determined to be Earth-directed and arrived at Earth late on 19 Dec. See the geomagnetic summary below for further information on this event.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 14 Dec and 19 Dec with moderate levels observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels late on 14 Dec and early on 15 Dec due to the influence of a corotating interaction region followed by the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Isolated active field conditions were observed early on 16 Dec and again late on 17 Dec due to weak substorming. The CMEs from 16 Dec presumably merged in the interplanetary medium and impacted the Earth at 19/1528 UTC. During the passage of the interplanetary shock, solar wind parameters aboard the ACE spacecraft became suddenly enhanced. Total field strength values initially increased from 5 nT to 17 nT and the Bz component went strongly southward shortly after the initial shock passage. The prolonged period of southward magnetic field (-Bz) associated with the passage of the 16 Dec CMEs caused periods of active conditions late on 19 Dec and active to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 20 Dec. G2 storm conditions were observed between 20/0300-0600 UTC and 20/1500-2359 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 December – 16 January 2016

Solar activity is expected to be low throughout the period with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) on 21 Dec through 03 Jan to the increased flare activity from an unnumbered region behind the east limb.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels on 21-27 Dec, moderate levels on 31 Dec-02 Jan, and 14-16 Jan. High flux levels are expected on 28-30 Dec and 03-13 Jan.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels early on 21 Dec due to the waning effects of the 16 Dec coronal mass ejections. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 02, 06, and 10 Jan due to the influence of recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Are you ready for the annual, month-long special event by the Straight Key Century Club (SKCC)? The SKCC Group membership is free, and celebrates the longest tradition of amateur radio: Morse code. But, not just any Morse code. The manual creation of Morse code by “straight” keys means no electronic origin, only mechanical. This is a month-long event, during January 2016, modelled after the ARRL Straight Key Night.

Here’s a video that I made showing my activity as the control operator of the special event station, K3Y/0, during one of the many shifts during January (2015). K3Y is the special event callsign of the Straight Key Century Club (SKCC). The special event operates each January. I’ll be doing this again, this coming month, January of 2016.

K3Y, the Straight Key Century Club’s annual January celebration, commemorates the club’s founding in 2006 following the American Radio Relay League’s Straight Key Night. A small group of participants wanted to extend the fun of SKN throughout the year. The SKCC is the result.

For the first three years, the club’s founders used K1Y, K2A, and K3Y as the celebration’s special-event calls. But someone cleverly noticed that a 3 is nothing more than a backwards, curvaceous E. This “KEY” event has operated under the K3Y call ever since.

The on-air party is open to members and non-members alike. It runs from 0000 UTC Jan. 2 through 2359 UTC Jan. 31. It’s a great time to introduce others to the joys of hand-crafted Morse code using straight keys, bugs, and side swipers.

This year, January 2016, we’ll be fielding K3Y operators in each of the 10 US call areas, plus KH6, KL7 and KP4, along with specially scheduled stations in each of six IARU continental regions. Your QSOs with event operators in all these 19 areas will be tabulated in the Statistics section and can be confirmed with a K3Y QSL card and Sweep Certificate.

+ The SKCC website is at http://skccgroup.com

+ The K3Y special event page is http://www.skccgroup.com/k3y/

73 de NW7US​

dit dit

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Dec 14 0121 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 – 13 December 2015

Solar activity was at low levels and only C-class flare activity was observed throughout the period, the largest of which was a C7 flare at 12/1346 UTC from Region 2470 (N13, L=087, class/area=Dkc/270 on 13 Dec). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels every day of the summary period with a peak flux of 10,700 pfu observed at 09/1455 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to active levels on 07-08 Dec due to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects prior to the summary period. Unsettled to active field conditions were observed on 10-11 Dec, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels observed between 10/0300-0600 UTC, due to the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 December – 09 January 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the outlook period with only C-class flare activity expected.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 14-20, 29-31 Dec and 03-09 Jan. Low to moderate electron flux levels are expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 16 Dec and 06 Jan due to the influence of recurrent coronal hole high speed streams. Active field conditions are likely on 15, 17-18, 27-28 Dec and 01, 03-04, 07-08 Dec due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Dec 07 0214 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 November – 06 December 2015

Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2458 (N10, L=356, class/area Dao/160 on 24 Nov), 2462 (N09, L=216, class/area Hax/40 on 04 Dec), 2463 (S11, L=205, class/area Dao/130 on 05 Dec) and 2464 (S12, L=189, class/area Axx/10 on 05 Dec) each produced C-class flares. The largest event of the period was a C4/Sf at 1702 UTC on 04 December. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal levels on 30 November and reached moderate levels on 01 December. High levels were observed from 02-04 December before returning to moderate levels for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to active with an isolated minor storm period from 0600-0900 UTC on 30 November due to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet to active levels were observed on 01 December as HSS influence continued. Predominately quiet conditions were observed from 02-04 December with some unsettled periods on 02 and 04 December. Quiet to active levels returned on 05 December due to effects from a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a second positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions dominated 06 December with an isolated minor storm period observed from 0900-1200 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 December – 02 January 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the majority of the period with high levels likely on 08-09 December, 11-15 December and 29-31 December following anticipated recurrent CH HSS events.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach minor storm levels on 07 and 08 December due to continued effects from a positive polarity CH HSS. Predominately unsettled to active conditions are expected to from 09-13 December with minor storm periods possible as HSS effects persist. Mostly quiet levels are expected from 14-26 December. Quiet to active conditions are likely on 27 and 28 December due effects from a second recurrent CH HSS followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 29 December as influence subsides. Quiet conditions are expected on 30-31 December. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 01 January with minor storm levels likely on 02 January as a third recurrent CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr