Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Jan 11 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2016 Jan 11 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jan 11 0123 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 – 10 January 2016

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Very low activity was observed on 04-05 January and 08-10 January while isolated low activity occured on 06-07 January. A pair of C1 x-ray events were observed from Region 2480 (N02, L=125, class/area Eso/190 on 10 Jan) on 06/1137 UTC and 07/0617 UTC, respectively. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the summary period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels on 04-05 January and 08-10 January. On 06 January, activity increased to unsettled to active levels with an isolated period of minor storming (G1-Minor) observed early on the 6th. Unsettled to active conditions persisted through late on the 7th. This increase in activity was due to the presence of a recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE satellite, indicated an increase in wind speeds early on 06 Jan from about 475 km/s to a peak of 643 km/s at 06/1025 UTC. Wind speeds remained elevated between 575 – 625 km/s through about 07/2000 UTC when a gradual decline to about 430 km/s were observed through the end of the summary period. Total field (Bt) averaged about 5 nT for a majority of the period, but ranged from 7-16 nT from 05/0820 UTC – 06/0131 UTC. The Bz component varied between +/- 4 nT with increased variability recorded between +12 nT to -10 nT from 05/0935 UTC to 06/0022 UTC. The phi angle was in a predominately positive (away for the Sun) orientation throughout the summary period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 January – 06 February 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels from 11-14 January and from 29 January – 06 February. From 15-28 January, activity levels are expected to increase to low to moderate levels (R1-Minor) due to the return of old active Region 2473 (S21, L=334).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 11-12, 17-22, 26-28 January and 31 January – 02 February. High levels are expected on 13-16, 23-25, 29-30 January and 03-06 February due to enhanced winds from a series of geoeffective CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions on 12-13, 22-23, 28-29 January and 02-03 February with isolated minor storm levels (G1-Minor) likely on 12 and 18 January, all due to a series of recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remaining days of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

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Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

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Tomas Hood, NW7US, is a regular contributor to AmateurRadio.com and writes from Nebraska, USA. Tomas is the Space Weather and Radio Propagation Contributing Editor to 'CQ Amateur Radio Magazine', 'The Spectrum Monitor', and 'RadioUser UK Magazine'.

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