Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Dec 14 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Dec 14 0121 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 – 13 December 2015
Solar activity was at low levels and only C-class flare activity was observed throughout the period, the largest of which was a C7 flare at 12/1346 UTC from Region 2470 (N13, L=087, class/area=Dkc/270 on 13 Dec). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels every day of the summary period with a peak flux of 10,700 pfu observed at 09/1455 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to active levels on 07-08 Dec due to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects prior to the summary period. Unsettled to active field conditions were observed on 10-11 Dec, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels observed between 10/0300-0600 UTC, due to the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 December – 09 January 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the outlook period with only C-class flare activity expected.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 14-20, 29-31 Dec and 03-09 Jan. Low to moderate electron flux levels are expected throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 16 Dec and 06 Jan due to the influence of recurrent coronal hole high speed streams. Active field conditions are likely on 15, 17-18, 27-28 Dec and 01, 03-04, 07-08 Dec due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
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