Weekly Propagation Summary – 2018 Oct 01 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2018 Oct 01 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Oct 01 0253 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 – 30 September 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the period. Region 2723 (S08, L=356 class/area Dro/030 on 30 Sep) developed on 29 Sep, but was already showing signs of decay as of this report, and remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reach high levels on 24 – 28 Sep, then decreased to moderate levels on 29 – 30 Sep. A peak flux of 6,202 pfu was observed on 24/2020 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the entire period, from 24 – 30 Sep, under very subtle CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds averaged near 430 km/s through most of the period, but did see an increase to reach a peak of 505 km/s on 30/0158 UTC. Total field strength ranged between 1 nT to 7 nT, while the Bz component was variable between +/- 6 nT through the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 October – 27 October 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period, with a slight chance for C-class flare activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels from 1 – 8 Oct, and again from 26 – 27 Oct. High levels are expected from 9 – 25 Oct following elevated solar wind speeds associated to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels from 1 – 6 Oct, with isolated active levels likely on 1 Oct. Conditions are then expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 7 – 8 Oct, with G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely on 8 Oct, due to a positive polarity CH HSS. A brief return to unsettled levels is likely on 9 Oct, with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely returning on 10 Oct as CH HSS effects persist. Active levels are expected on 11 Oct as CH HSS effects taper off. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected from 12 – 18 Oct, with isolated active periods likely on 14 and 18 Oct. G1 levels are likely again on 19 Oct as another CH HSS influences the magnetic field. Isolated active periods are expected early on 20 Oct before conditions decrease to be at mostly unsettled levels throughout the remainder of the outlook period (21 – 27 Oct) as CH HSS effects continue to wane.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2018 Sep 24 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2018 Sep 24 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Sep 24 0321 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 – 23 September 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels this period. There were no numbered spot regions and no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reach high levels on 17 – 23 Sep, with a peak flux of 34,900 pfu observed at 17/0005 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels from 17 – 19 Sep due to effects from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speeds began the period on 17 Sep near 370 km/s, but increased to over 500 km/s following the onset of the CH HSS, seeing a peak speed near 587 km/s. Total field strength reached 12 nT while the Bz component saw isolated southward deflections to near -7 nT. Conditions returned to quiet levels on 20 Sep and most of 21 Sep, until the last synoptic period, when a SSBC ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS, increased activity to G1 Minor storm levels. The enhanced conditions continued into 22 Sep, with G1 storm levels reached the first period, and unsettled to active conditions continuing throughout the day. Wind speeds took a while to increase, but along with the SSBC from negative to positive, a CIR enhanced the mag field, increasing total field strength to approximately 11 nT and dropped the Bz component to near -11 nT. Wind speeds eventually increased to reach a peak of 574 km/s late on 22 Sep. By 23 Sep, conditions remained slightly enhanced, with active levels occurring the first synoptic period of the day, but were beginning to subside. Quiet to unsettled conditions returned for the remainder of the day as CH HSS influence continued to wane.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 September – 20 October 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period, with a slight chance for C-class flare activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels through the period. Moderate levels are expected from 06 – 08 Oct. High levels are expected from 24 Sep – 05 Oct, and 09 – 20 Oct.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 7, 8, 10, and 19 Oct due to recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSSs). There is a chance for G2 storm levels on 8 Oct as well. Active levels are expected on 24 Sep, and 2, 10, and 20 Oct from the influence of the recurrent CH HSSs as well. Field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2018 Sep 17 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2018 Sep 17 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Sep 17 0146 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 – 16 September 2018

Solar activity was very low throughout the period. Region 2722 (S07, Lo=215, class/area Bxo/10 on 11 Sep) produced the strongest flare of the period, a B1 flare at 11/0759 UTC. The region decayed to plage in the following days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from normal background to high levels. High levels were reached on 12-16 Sep and moderate levels were reached on 10-11 Sep. All enhancements in electron flux are associated with the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. The onset of a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS on 10 Sep increased geomagnetic activity to G1 levels. As wind speeds increased to around 550 km/s on 11 Sep, geomagnetic activity further increased to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) peaked at 15 nT late on 10 Sep. Bt then decreased to near 5-6 nT by mid-day on 11 Sep, which decreased the geomagnetic response to mostly quiet to active levels. One additional period of isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming was observed early on 14 Sep. Wind speeds persisted at elevated levels through 16 Sep, with a notable increase to a peak around 650 km/s observed early on 15 Sep. As wind speeds decreased, quiet to unsettled levels on 15 Sep gave way to quiet levels on 16 Sep.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 September – 13 October 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels on 06-08 Oct and at high levels for the remainder of the outlook period. All enhancements in electron flux are expected due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on 08 Oct; G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on 07 Oct and 10 Oct; active conditions are expected on 17 Sep, 23 Sep, 02 Oct and 11 Oct; unsettled conditions are expected on 18 Sep, 24 Sep, 01 Oct, 09 Oct and 12 Oct. All levels of elevated geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2018 Sep 10 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2018 Sep 10 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Sep 10 0413 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 – 09 September 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels this period. Region 2721 (N10, L=286 class/area Bxo/010 on 09 Sep) emerged near center disk on 08 Sep. This small region exhibited slight growth early on 09 Sep, but was showing signs of decay as of this report and remained inactive.

On 09 Sep, a prominence eruption was observed off the SW limb, beginning at 09/0815 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 imagery and at 09/0824 UTC in 171 imagery. While this event appears to be directed well south and west of the Sun-Earth line, significant gaps in SOHO coronagraph imagery data made analysis nearly impossible.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reach high levels on 03 – 08 Sep, then decreased to moderate levels on 09 Sep. A peak flux of 12,435 pfu was observed on 03/2035 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels from 03 – 09 Sep, with an isolated period of active conditions on 05 Sep, likely due to a negative polarity coronal hole. Solar wind speeds began the period near 325 km/s, increased to over 500 km/s on 05 Sep and 07 Sep, and ended the period near 400 km/s. Total field strength averaged near 5 nT, and saw a peak of 11 nT on 07 Sep. The Bz component was variable through the period and saw a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 September – 06 October 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the outlook period, with a slight chance for C-class flare activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels through period. Moderate levels are expected from 10 – 12 Sep and again from 29 Sep – 06 Oct. High levels are expected from 13 – 28 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 10 Sep. Conditions are then likely reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 11 Sep due to a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are also likely on 12 Sep as CH HSS effects persist. Active levels are expected on 13, 14, and 22 Sep from the influence of recurrent CH HSSs. Field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2018 Sep 03 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2018 Sep 03 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Sep 03 0229 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 August – 02 September 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels. Both Regions 2719 (S07, L=131 class/area Cro/040 on 23 Aug) and 2720 (N08, L=136 class/area Dao/100 on 25 Aug) quietly rotated off the disk on 29 Aug as areas of plage. Region 2720 resided on the disk as a low latitude, reverse polarity group. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels on 28-29 Aug and at high levels on 27 Aug, 30-31 Aug and 01-02 Sep). A peak flux of 97,630 pfu was observed at 28/2145 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 27 Aug followed by unsettled to active levels on 28 Aug. Quiet levels persisted on 29 Aug – 02 Sep. The period began under the continued, but waning, effects from the 19 and 20 Aug CMEs. This was coupled with influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began the period near 550 km/s and gradually increased to a peak speed of 666 km/s observed at 17/1730 UTC. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/1607 UTC while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -6 nT at 27/1627 UTC.

By midday on 28 Aug, field activity declined to quiet levels and remained so through the end of the summary period. The IMF was at nominal levels while solar wind speed gradually decreased to near 340 km/s by the end of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 September – 29 September 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels through the outlook period. A slight chance for low levels is possible from 05-24 Sep with the return of old Regions 2718 (S07, L=191), 2719 (S07, L=131) and 2720 (N08, L=136).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 03-04 Sep, 13-20 Sep and 23-26 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 05-12 Sep, 21-22 Sep and 27-29 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 03 Sep due to effects from a SSBC. Unsettled to active levels are anticipated on 07-09 Sep, 11-17 Sep and 22-23 Sep with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels possible on 11 Sep, all due to CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2018 Aug 27 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2018 Aug 27 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Aug 27 0539 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 – 26 August 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels. Regions 2719 (S07, L=131, class/area Cro/040 on 23 Aug) and 2720 (N08, L=136, class/area Dao/100 on 25 Aug) developed on the solar disk on 18 Aug and 23 Aug respectively. Both regions were responsible for several low level B-class flares. The largest was a B4 flare at 25/1048 UTC from Region 2720. Other activity included two coronal mass ejections (CME) observed on 19 and 20 Aug. The first was a narrow CME off the SW limb at 19/0812 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. The CME originated from a filament eruption near S09W06 at 19/0542 UTC. The latter CME was caused by a filament eruption at approximately 20/1100 UTC from the NW quadrant. An associated faint partial halo CME was observed off the W/SW limb at 20/2136 UTC in C2 imagery. WSA/ENLIL modelling of the events showed only weak effects from possible glancing blows late on 21 Aug and late on 24 Aug.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels throughout the period. The largest flux of the period was 10,300 pfu observed at 21/2150 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels. The period began under the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds were elevated to near 670 km/s with total field initially at 12 nT on 20 Aug. By 21 Aug, solar wind speed was in decline while total field was at 5 nT or less. Solar wind slowly decreased over the next few days as nominal conditions were reached by 23 Aug. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 20 Aug, quiet to unsettled levels on 21-22 Aug and quiet levels on 23 Aug. By 24 Aug, a small discontinuity could be seen in the total field. A small increase to 7 nT was observed at 24/1116 UTC while the Bz component deflected southward to -6 nT, however the solar wind speed continued to decrease to near 325 km/s by the end of the day. As a result, quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 24 Aug. By 25 Aug, solar wind speed increased briefly to 460 km/s at 25/1305 UTC before declining once again, however total field began to increase beginning at 25/1210 UTC as effects from the 20 Aug CME were beginning. By 26 Aug, total field increased to 18 nT and remained there for approximately 12 hours. The Bz component was mostly negative reaching a maximum of -17 nT for approximately 24 hours beginning at 25/1600 UTC. Solar wind speed once again showed an increase at 26/0730 UTC from 370 km/s to near 550 km/s by the periods end as the solar wind stream was transitioning into a positive polarity CH HSS. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 25 Aug and unsettled to G3 (Strong) storm levels on 26 Aug.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 August – 22 September 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flare activity on 27-29 Aug and again on 11-22 Sep as Regions 2719 and 2720 return to the visible disk. Very low levels are expected for the rest of the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 27 Aug-03 Sep, 12-15 Sep, and again on 17-19 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 27-30 Aug, 01-02 Sep, 07 Sep, 11-17 Sep, and 22 Sep with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels expected early on 27 Aug due to CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2018 Aug 20 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2018 Aug 20 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Aug 20 0445 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 – 19 August 2018

Solar activity was very low. Two small regions developed on the visible disk this period. Region 2718 (S07, L=191, class/area Hrx/020 on 17 Aug) developed on 14 Aug and decayed to plage by 19 Aug. Region 2719 (S06, L=133, class/area Bxo/010 on 19 Aug) developed in the SE quadrant on 19 Aug. No significant flare events occurred from either region. Other activity included a filament eruption centered near S11W04 observed lifting off the solar disk at approximately 19/0538 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection was observed off the SW limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 19/0812 UTC. WSA/Enlil modelling of the event suggested the ejecta was primarily directed westward of the Sun-Earth line and is not expected to cause any significant effects.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 13-15 Aug, moderate levels on 16-17 Aug, and at high levels on 18-19 Aug. The largest flux of the period was 18,287 pfu observed at 19/1800 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels over the period. Solar wind speed was at nominal levels at the beginning of the period with solar wind speed ranging from 310-430 km/s while total field was between 1-4 nT. The geomagnetic field was quiet on 13-14 Aug. By 15 Aug, solar wind speed increased to approximately 450-500 km/s with total field increasing to a maximum of 14 nT by 16/1005 UTC as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moved into geoeffective position. A further increase in solar wind speed to near 570 km/s was observed late on 17 Aug before slowly receding to nominal levels by midday on 19 Aug. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 15-18 Aug. By late on 19 Aug, total field increase again to 12 nT along with an increase in solar wind to near 550 km/s as a negative polarity CH HSS was becoming geoeffective. However, only quiet levels were observed on 19 Aug.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 August – 15 September 2018

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 22-27 Aug and again on 13-15 Sep due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active levels on 20-25 Aug, 03-04 Sep, 07 Sep, and 11-15 Sep with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 20-21 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..


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