Weekly Propagation Summary – 2018 Oct 01 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Oct 01 0253 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 – 30 September 2018
Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the period. Region 2723 (S08, L=356 class/area Dro/030 on 30 Sep) developed on 29 Sep, but was already showing signs of decay as of this report, and remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reach high levels on 24 – 28 Sep, then decreased to moderate levels on 29 – 30 Sep. A peak flux of 6,202 pfu was observed on 24/2020 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the entire period, from 24 – 30 Sep, under very subtle CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds averaged near 430 km/s through most of the period, but did see an increase to reach a peak of 505 km/s on 30/0158 UTC. Total field strength ranged between 1 nT to 7 nT, while the Bz component was variable between +/- 6 nT through the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 October – 27 October 2018
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period, with a slight chance for C-class flare activity.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels from 1 – 8 Oct, and again from 26 – 27 Oct. High levels are expected from 9 – 25 Oct following elevated solar wind speeds associated to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels from 1 – 6 Oct, with isolated active levels likely on 1 Oct. Conditions are then expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 7 – 8 Oct, with G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely on 8 Oct, due to a positive polarity CH HSS. A brief return to unsettled levels is likely on 9 Oct, with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely returning on 10 Oct as CH HSS effects persist. Active levels are expected on 11 Oct as CH HSS effects taper off. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected from 12 – 18 Oct, with isolated active periods likely on 14 and 18 Oct. G1 levels are likely again on 19 Oct as another CH HSS influences the magnetic field. Isolated active periods are expected early on 20 Oct before conditions decrease to be at mostly unsettled levels throughout the remainder of the outlook period (21 – 27 Oct) as CH HSS effects continue to wane.
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