Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Sep 24 0321 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 – 23 September 2018
Solar activity was at very low levels this period. There were no numbered spot regions and no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reach high levels on 17 – 23 Sep, with a peak flux of 34,900 pfu observed at 17/0005 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels from 17 – 19 Sep due to effects from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speeds began the period on 17 Sep near 370 km/s, but increased to over 500 km/s following the onset of the CH HSS, seeing a peak speed near 587 km/s. Total field strength reached 12 nT while the Bz component saw isolated southward deflections to near -7 nT. Conditions returned to quiet levels on 20 Sep and most of 21 Sep, until the last synoptic period, when a SSBC ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS, increased activity to G1 Minor storm levels. The enhanced conditions continued into 22 Sep, with G1 storm levels reached the first period, and unsettled to active conditions continuing throughout the day. Wind speeds took a while to increase, but along with the SSBC from negative to positive, a CIR enhanced the mag field, increasing total field strength to approximately 11 nT and dropped the Bz component to near -11 nT. Wind speeds eventually increased to reach a peak of 574 km/s late on 22 Sep. By 23 Sep, conditions remained slightly enhanced, with active levels occurring the first synoptic period of the day, but were beginning to subside. Quiet to unsettled conditions returned for the remainder of the day as CH HSS influence continued to wane.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 September – 20 October 2018
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period, with a slight chance for C-class flare activity.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels through the period. Moderate levels are expected from 06 – 08 Oct. High levels are expected from 24 Sep – 05 Oct, and 09 – 20 Oct.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 7, 8, 10, and 19 Oct due to recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSSs). There is a chance for G2 storm levels on 8 Oct as well. Active levels are expected on 24 Sep, and 2, 10, and 20 Oct from the influence of the recurrent CH HSSs as well. Field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the remainder of the outlook period.
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Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/
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