Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Sep 03 0229 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 August – 02 September 2018
Solar activity was at very low levels. Both Regions 2719 (S07, L=131 class/area Cro/040 on 23 Aug) and 2720 (N08, L=136 class/area Dao/100 on 25 Aug) quietly rotated off the disk on 29 Aug as areas of plage. Region 2720 resided on the disk as a low latitude, reverse polarity group. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels on 28-29 Aug and at high levels on 27 Aug, 30-31 Aug and 01-02 Sep). A peak flux of 97,630 pfu was observed at 28/2145 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 27 Aug followed by unsettled to active levels on 28 Aug. Quiet levels persisted on 29 Aug – 02 Sep. The period began under the continued, but waning, effects from the 19 and 20 Aug CMEs. This was coupled with influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began the period near 550 km/s and gradually increased to a peak speed of 666 km/s observed at 17/1730 UTC. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/1607 UTC while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -6 nT at 27/1627 UTC.
By midday on 28 Aug, field activity declined to quiet levels and remained so through the end of the summary period. The IMF was at nominal levels while solar wind speed gradually decreased to near 340 km/s by the end of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 September – 29 September 2018
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels through the outlook period. A slight chance for low levels is possible from 05-24 Sep with the return of old Regions 2718 (S07, L=191), 2719 (S07, L=131) and 2720 (N08, L=136).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 03-04 Sep, 13-20 Sep and 23-26 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 05-12 Sep, 21-22 Sep and 27-29 Sep.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 03 Sep due to effects from a SSBC. Unsettled to active levels are anticipated on 07-09 Sep, 11-17 Sep and 22-23 Sep with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels possible on 11 Sep, all due to CH HSS activity.
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Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/
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