Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Aug 22 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2016 Aug 22 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Aug 22 0524 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 – 21 August 2016

Solar activity was at low levels on 15 August due to an isolated C1 flare at 15/0023 UTC from Region 2578 (N09, L=084, class/area Cro/020 on 18 Aug). Very low levels were observed from 16-21 August. Although Regions 2574 (N05, L=173, class/area Dho/290 on 09 Aug), 2576 (S15, L=160, class/area Hsx/140 on 10 Aug), 2577 (N03, L=164, class/area Dso/130 on 12 Aug), and 2578 were on the visible disk during the period, the regions appeared to be in slow decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 15-16 August, moderate levels on 17 and 19-21 August and normal levels on 18 August. The largest flux of the period was 9,570 pfu observed at 15/1605 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated active period observed on 21 August due to a pair of weak, negative polarity coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS). Quiet levels were observed on 15 August under a nominal solar wind regime. By early on 17 August, solar wind speed increased to 435 km/s while total field increased to near 9 nT. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed from 16-18 August with quiet levels on 19-20 August. Solar wind speed decreased slowly until midday on 21 August when another CH HSS became geoeffective. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 21 August.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 August – 17 September 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels through the forecast period (22 Aug-17 Sep).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 26-28 August and from 31 August-12 September as a result of recurrent CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 23-25 August, 29 August-08 September, 13-14 September, and again on 17 September with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 30-31 August due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

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