Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Nov 23 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2015 Nov 23 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Nov 23 0602 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 – 22 November 2015

Solar activity was at very low to low levels over the period. Low levels occurred on 17-18 November and 21-22 November with Regions 2454 (N13, L=121, class/area Dac/130 on 22 Nov) and 2457 (N11, L=032, class/area Dsi/130 on 21 Nov) responsible for the C-class flare activity. The largest flares of the period were a pair of C5/Sf flares at 22/0210 UTC and 22/0538 UTC originating from Region 2454 which was in a growth phase after 21 November.

Two filament eruptions were observed at the beginning of the period that resulted in coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The first was an approximate 21 degree long filament, centered near S11W17, that lifted off around 15/2114 UTC. The second was an approximate 19 degree filament, centered near S26W24 that lifted off around 16/0114 UTC. Two CMEs were observed lifting off the SW limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 15/2336 UTC and 16/0312 UTC, respectively. Analysis of these CMEs indicated a likely glancing blow early on 19 November. Later in the period, another filament eruption, centered near S20E10, occurred around 22/0600 UTC. An associated CME, observed in C2 imagery beginning at 22/0836 UTC, was mostly directed off the east limb. Subsequent analysis of this CME indicated a very low chance for a glancing blow.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 16 November with a maximum flux of 3,129 pfu at 16/1525 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed from 17-22 November.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm periods over the period. Solar wind conditions began the period near nominal levels with prolonged periods of southward Bz near -6 nT on 16 November. Subsequently, the geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to active periods. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 17 November. At approximately 17/1941 UTC, a solar sector boundary crossing to a mostly negative (towards) sector occurred followed by an increase in solar wind speed from 370 km/s to around 530 km/s by early on 19 November. An abrupt increase in total field from 6 nT to 12 nT occurred at 18/1925 UTC with a maximum southward deflection of the Bz component to -11 nT indicating the likely arrival of the CMEs from 15-16 November coupled with influences from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). A geomagnetic sudden impulse (70 nT at the Wingst magnetometer) was observed at 18/2010 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with (G1) minor storming late in the period on 18 November with quiet to active conditions on 19 November. Solar wind speed continued a slow decay over the rest of the period to background levels resulting in quiet to unsettled levels on 20-21 November and quiet conditions on 22 November.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 November – 19 December 2015

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares from 23-25 November due to flare potential from Region 2454. Very low to low levels are expected from 26 November through 07 December. There is also a chance for M-class flare activity from 08-19 December with the return of old Region 2454 (N13, L=121).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely from 26-28 November and again from 06-13 December due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 25-26 November and 05-12 December with (G1) minor storming likely on 06-07 December due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

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