Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Nov 09 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2015 Nov 09 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Nov 09 0211 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 – 08 November 2015

Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels. The summary period began with numerous weak to mid-level C-class flares from Regions 2443 (N07, L=316, class/area Fkc/650 on 01 Nov) and 2445 (N15, L=026, class/area Dac/240 on 02 Nov) observed on 02-03 November. Activity increased to moderate levels (R1-Minor) on 04 November. At 04/0326 UTC, Region 2445 produced an M1/1n flare with an associated Type II radio sweep (790 km/s estimated shock velocity). In addition, discrete frequency bursts of 56,000 sfu and 41,000 sfu were observed on 245 MHz and 410 MHz, respectively. Region 2445 also prodcued an M2/1n flare at 04/1203 UTC with an associated Type II sweep (1033 km/s estimated shock velocity). Shortly afterward, Region 2443 produced an M3/2b flare with associated Type II (955 km/s estimated shock velocity) and Type IV sweeps. This event also prodcued an associated partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME), first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 04/1436 UTC.

By 05 November, activity levels declined to very low levels. Levels increased to low on 06-07 November with weak to mid-level C-class activity observed from Regions 2446 (N15, L-349, class/area Cro/020 on 01 Nov), 2448 (N06, L=234, class/area Dao/140 on 06 Nov), 2449 (S12, L=209, class/area Dao/150 on 07 Nov) and 2450 (S23, L=200, class/area Bxo/010 on 07 Nov).

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 02-03 November and high levels on 04-07 November due to enhanced solar wind speeds.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to major storm levels. The summary period began with quiet to unsettled levels on 02 November. Solar wind speeds, measured at the ACE spacecraft, were weak at about 300 km/s. Field activity picked up to unsettled to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) on 03-04 November due to effects from an equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Wind parameters observed a rapid increase in winds speeds to an average of about 675 km/s with a peak of near 770 km/s early on 04 November. Total field (Bt) increased to peak at 34 nT about 03/0700 UTC while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -24 nT at 03/0620 UTC. Activity levels decreased to quiet to active on 05 November through early on 06 November as effects from the CH HSS waned. Quiet levels were observed from 06/0300-1800 UTC. During this time frame, wind speeds decreased to near 475 km/s while Bt and Bz relaxed to nominal levels.

On 06/1800-2400 UTC, field activity increased to active levels and further increased to minor to major storm levels (G1-G2 / Minor-Moderate) for the first half of 07 November. This increase in activity was attributed to the arrival of the 04 November CME. Wind speeds increased to 719 km/s at 07/0257 UTC, Bt increased to 20 nT late on 06 November and the Bz component varied between +18 nT to -16 nT. The last half of 07 November through the first half of 08 November saw field conditions relax to quiet levels. Wind speeds declined to about 425 km/s while Bt and Bz relaxed to nominal levels. By midday on the 8th, wind parameters indicated the likely onset of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds peaked to near 550 km/s late on the 8th while Bt reached 10 nT and Bz was mostly southward to -6 nT.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 November – 05 December 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with a chance for moderate levels (R1-R2 / Minor-Moderate) through the outlook period. Regions 2443 and 2449 , coupled with the return of old Region 2437 (S18, L=098) on 12 November, are the regions most likely to produce M-class activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit in the absence of any significant flare activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 09-16 November and again on 01-05 December due to an enhanced solar wind enviroment as recurrent CH HSSs become geoeffective. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 10-30 November.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 09-11 November. Minor storm levels (G1-Minor) are expected on 09 November as a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS impacts Earth. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 16-17 November due to extended periods of southward Bz. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 30 November – 02 December and again on 05 December, with minor storm levels likely on 30 November and 01 December. This activity is due to recurrent positive polarity CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 12-15 and 18-29 November.

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