Today’s Space Weather Forecast Discussion (2015 Mar 31 1230 UTC)

Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Mar 31 20:07 UTC

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with C-flare activity from both Regions 2303 (N18, L=065) and 2305 (S10W58, Dho/beta). The largest flare of the period was a C4 at 30/2205 from Region 2303 just beyond the NW limb. Slight decay was observed in the leading spots of Region 2315 (S20W36, Dro/beta) and the trailing spots in Region 2305. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare for day one (31 Mar). An increased chance for M-class activity is expected by days two and three (01-02 Apr) as old Regions 2302 (N12, L=189) and 2297 (S17, L=196) are expected to return.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast to be at normal to moderate levels all three days (31 Mar -02 Apr) The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft for the majority of the period was in the mid-300 km/s range but increased to near 400 km/s after 0730 UTC. Phi was negative. Bz was at or above -4 nT and Bt was less than 7 nT through 0730 UTC when it increased to near 16 nT. The increase in activity is likely due to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Forecast: Continued enhancement of solar wind parameters is anticipated on day one (31 Mar) and remain enhanced through day three (02 Apr) as the CH HSS becomes geoeffective.


24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions are expected to dominate through day three (02 Apr) due to CH HSS effects. trans-equatorial high speed stream becomes geoeffective.

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