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Blog readers may remember my previous blog discussing a more optimistic prognosis for the just-starting solar Cycle 25. It described the then recently-published scientific paper whose conclusion was rather startling:

 

 

 "... we deduce that Sunspot Cycle 25 could have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began."

The scientific paper described the exact opposite of any and all predictions that I have read or have seen referenced, and at the time of publication, was surely a bold and risky claim for the paper's authors. (1)

An over-simplification of the methodologies used to develop their prediction describes the study of the complex relationship involving the Sun's 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle, the end points of adjoining cycles called 'terminations' and sunspot production, to predict the eventual strength of the new cycle.

The end of the cycle or ‘terminator’ event plays a significant role in the new cycle’s progress, as the shorter the separation between adjoining terminators, the stronger the next cycle will be. The possibilities of Cycle 25 being a truly strong one depends upon (according to the paper) a terminator event occuring sometime before the end of 2020.

Although there has been no official announcement as of yet, it appears that the termination may be presently occuring. Again following the paper, the termination event will produce a sudden and marked upturn in the growth of solar activity and will in fact, switch on suddenly within one solar rotation. As startling as this sounds, it appears to be exactly what is happening on the Sun right now.

 

courtesy: nasa.gov

Just one week ago, the Sun’s solar flux stood at ~79 sfu (Solar Flux Units) but has climbed rapidly to 110. With several active sunspot regions on the earth-facing side of the Sun and several actively flaring groups about to rotate into view on the backside, it seems as if this sudden growth may be sustainable.

What is particularly encouraging is the activity level of the earth-side spots as well as the ones coming around, with several C and B-class flares continuing to push the flux higher. 

Although it will likely slow and subside, a key indicator of future strength will be the time that it takes to recover and climb again. 

Another interesting gauge of a new cycle’s possible future strength is the number of months needed to reach an average monthly SFI of ‘90’. Strong cycles tend to climb early and rapidly, in order to reach their lofty heights. 

The strongest cycle on record was Cycle 19, the grandaddy of them all. 

courtesy: http://www.solen.info/solar/

 

Compared to anything before or after, it was a magnificent monster of a cycle for ham radio. Cycle 19 reached the magic SFI 90 value in only 18 months ... Cycle 25 has reached this same point in just 12 months! If this is indeed an accurate marker for cycle strength, and there is no reason to believe otherwise, then maybe we should all hold onto our hats.

We’ve been told for several years by those who know these things, that Cycle 25 would likely be a repeat of the poorly-performing Cycle 24, or even weaker. I think one thing  that can now be reasonably surmised is that this isn't another Cycle 24! We should know shortly, if Cycle 25 is the real thing or not, once the termination event has been confirmed.

In the meantime, enjoy the wide open strong signal opportunities now playing on 10m ... the band is back once again and in fine form ... way earlier than anyone ever expected!

 

 (1) Scott W. McIntosh (1), Sandra C. Chapman (2), Robert J. Leamon (3,4), Ricky Egeland (1), and Nicholas W. Watkins (2,5,6)

1 National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.
2 Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
3 University of Maryland, Department of Astronomy, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
4 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 672, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.
5 Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science, London WC2A 2AZ, UK 
6 School of Engineering and Innovation, STEM Faculty, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK

My love for radio began at an early age when I first started to tune the shortwave bands at age eleven. Little did I know then, that I was listening near the peak of the strongest solar cycle in recorded history, monster Cycle 19.



I thought that what I was hearing was normal for shortwave and that it would always be this way ... and it was, for a number of years.

As the solar cycle slowly declined, I began to take a deeper interest in propagation and its relationship with the Sun. After obtaining my licence and getting on the air, the reality set in with the arrival of a rather dismal Cycle 20. Following the vagaries of propagation became almost a hobby in itself, trying to correlate what I was observing with what the Sun was doing and even getting comfortable with predicting what might happen next.

It was particularly exciting during the stronger Cycles (21-23), to watch the dramatic effect of solar radiation on the F layer during the peak winter years of these cycles. With a major interest in 50MHz, watching the solar flux became a daily ritual, along with the fascinating daily rise of the F2 MUF as the Sun peaked over the horizon.

On normal mornings, around sunrise, the MUF would typically start close to 28MHz and slowly begin to rise over the next few hours. Often it would slow and settle-in between 38 and 42MHz, stay there for most of the day and then slowly recede as darkness approached.

I found myself looking forward to and wishing for more solar flares, along with the solar flux boost that inevitably followed.

On these mornings, the MUF would often be at 35MHz or higher, right at sunrise ... and begin climbing. Some days it would shoot-up like a rocket and in a matter of minutes would be at 50MHz or above, bringing thundering signals from the east coast not long after dawn. On other mornings it would climb much more slowly, receding and then advancing again, surging higher and then lower, as it teased its way towards the magicband. It was as if the ionosphere was a living breathing entity, as the solar radiation danced a slow tango with the critical frequency of the moment. Often it would stop at around 48 or 49MHz, stay there for several hours and then collapse ... no 6m excitement that day.

A nice bonus of watching this live interaction between the Sun and our ionosphere, was listening to the communications in the range between 28MHz and 50MHz as I followed the rising MUF. This was, and still is to a lesser extent, utilized on FM by paramedics, fire and police services throughout the U.S. It was not uncommon to hear mobile units enroute to an emergency, with sirens blazing in the background. Southern drawls usually meant that any 6m openings would begin in the southern states or the Caribbean, while Boston or New York accents, would herald an opening to New England or the possibility of trans-Atlantic openings to Africa or Europe. I became even more familiar with the daily interaction of the solar wind and how it affected radio ... and found it fascinating.

But just as the Sun affects propagation so positively, I was recently soberly reminded of how 'unfriendly' it can be ... as it has been in the past and will be again in the future. An article in this month's 'Astronomy', by Bob Berman, discussed threats to global welfare and in particular, a modern day repeat of the Carrington Event of 1859.

This was a double mega-flare and CME, taking only 19 hours to reach earth, compared to the normal 3-day trip. It was the strongest impact on earth ever recorded and one that will be repeated ... and is almost, statistically 'overdue', unless we dodged it in 2012 when a storm of similar magnitude missed the earth.

In Berman's words:

"What would a Carrington-level event do today, with our ubiquitous power lines, transformers, and more than a thousand operational satellites? In 2008, the U.S. government convened a panel of experts, who concluded that such a storm would completely destroy our electric grid. It would require two to 10 years to repair and cost about $2 trillion. We'd be knocked back to the stone age.
That panel panel called Carrington a "low frequency/high consequence" event - the kind humans typically ignore until it happens." 

We quickly release how dependent on the hydro system we have become, when our power goes out for a few hours or even a day or two, following a severe weather event. Such an event is certainly 'inconvenient' but soon forgotten when the power returns. Going without power, and its trickle-down effects on our depended-upon infrastructures for several months or longer, would not be just 'inconvenient'. It would be a life-altering.

courtesy: http://www.solen.info/solar/

The Carrington event happened during Cycle 10, on the upward climb to the peak of an average-sized cycle. Solar scientists, for the most part, now predict a general decrease in solar activity over the next few cycles ... a spotless sun may become more the norm. Perhaps it is a good thing that the likelihood of a mega-flare event will be reduced but it seems that a repeat, at some point, is inevitable.

Maybe I'd better stop wishing for flares.

Ever since receiving my first QSL in the mail, as an 11 year-old SWL in Cycle 19, I've always loved getting new cards. Strange as it sounds, I can still recall the fresh ink smell and the brown manila envelope that arrived from "Switzerland Calling". In those days the world was a much larger place and Switzerland may as well have been on the moon. It was a world away ... and the envelope was addressed just to me!

I had a similar thrill this week, when my rural mailbox revealed a much-needed card from Afghanistan. It was from Shuravi, T6T, worked a few weeks ago on 20m ... surprising, as he was using just a low wire dipole supported with bamboo poles.

The card confirmed DXCC country #335 for me with most of them, like T6T, being on CW.

I keep a separate country count, and albums, for my two favorite bands ...160m and 6m, where it seems that new ones come either very slowly or in bunches.

As of today, my 160m total stands at 154 worked and confirmed while my total on the magic band stands at 86 worked and 85 confirmed ... proof of the Pacific  Northwest's 6m black hole phenomenon. Sadly I neglected to quickly post a card to 4U1UN for a Saturday morning F2 QSO during Cycle 21. Later attempts proved futile as the logs were subsequently destroyed in a small fire.

The nine remaining DXCC countries will be tough, as, from what I can determine, there is little or no regular amateur radio activity from most of them:

H40  Temotu Province
FT/TO  Glorioso Island
HK0  Malpelo Island
KP5  Descecheo Island
P5  DPR of Korea
SV/A  Mt. Athos
VP8  South Sandwich Islands
Z8  Southern Sudan
ZL9  Auckland / Campbell Island


I've stayed away from e-QSLing as the look and the feel of a written paper card, was one of the first things that attracted me to the hobby and it seems, to me anyway, an important ham radio tradition to keep alive as long as possible. After all these years, I'm still hooked on QSLs.

First 630m contacts

Hopefully there will be more stations active before the winter DX season gets underway!

In an attempt to keep my own interest level up as well as  trying to get the word out to others about our new band, I've completed crossband contacts with three other VE stations. Two of the contacts were on Vancouver Island....VE7DAY (John) in Campbell River and VA7FC (Perry) in Courtenay. The third station was VE6TA (Grant), near Edmonton, Alberta. A fourth crossband contact was completed when I worked W7WKR (Dick) near Lake Chelan in Washington state. John, VE7BDQ, also completed crossband contacts with VE6TA and W7WKR giving those two stations a 'VE7 two-fer'.







Both John and I would love to do a lot more crossband work, especially with stations in the U.S.A. who presently cannot transmit on the band but may still be very much interested in 630m. A recent overnight beaconing session at 25 watts output clearly indicated that under fairly normal conditions and with a good receiving system on 630m, my normal speed CW signal can cover a wide geographic area during the hours of darkness. Having up to 500 watts of power available for CW, my signals should have good coverage to all of the western and central states at this time of the year.

Such crossband type contacts are perfectly legal between any and all stations in the "amateur radio service" and at one time, this was the only mode available between Europe and North America on the 50MHz band, as this tantalizing review of Cycle 19's amazing propagation explains.

If anyone, anywhere (both U.S. or VE), would be interested in attempting a crossband CW QSO, I would love to try! Please contact me via the comments section below or via e- mail.

I would also be interested in hearing from any Canadians who are planning to get on the new band as I am trying to keep track on my website's LF page.