AmateurRadio.com

The new cool digital mode for amateur radio is FT8, made possible by Joe Taylor/K1JT and the WSJT software. At first, FT8 seemed like just the next digital mode to try but it is turning out to have a bigger impact than that. Jeff/KE9V recently posted about the popularity of FT8 here:

FT8 is so far out in front that other digital modes are a foregone conclusion. CW only remains relevant because of its popularity in contests. Even phone, the Holy Grail of wannabe HF operators everywhere, is a nearly forgotten mode compared to FT8.

This reminded me of some of the classic research on adoption of new innovations. What are the factors that cause a new thing to really take off versus languish on the shelf? How do these apply to the quick adoption of FT8?

Diffusion of Innovations

In Diffusion of Innovations, E. M. Rogers lists five factors will influence how quickly a new innovation gets adopted:

Relative Advantage: The degree to which the innovation is superior to ideas it supersedes.

If an innovation is clearly superior to the present way of doing things, people will be more likely to adopt it without too much concern about its usefulness. If it’s not clearly better, people will tend to question whether it is worth the trouble of changing.

Compatibility: The degree to which the innovation is consistent with existing values, past experiences, and the needs of the user.

If an innovation is similar to existing practice and blends in well with user needs and expectations it is more likely to be adopted.  If it requires change on the part of the user or represents an inconsistency with the user’s past experience, it may be rejected.

Complexity:  The degree to which the innovation is relatively difficult to understand and use.

The more complex something is, the more likely people will reject it because “it’s just too much trouble.”  Understandable ideas will tend to be considered more carefully and are more likely to be adopted.

Trialability:  The degree to which an innovation may be tried on a limited basis (in other words, without committing to full-scale, total operational change.)

The easier it is for an individual or organization to try something out without being fully committed, the more likely they will give a new innovation a try.  If the innovation can only be tried with full-scale change and great expense, it will tend to get rejected.

Observability:  The degree to which the results from the use of an innovation are visible and easily communicated to users and other decision-makers.

If the results of an innovation are difficult to measure or see, rejection is more likely.  If the results are clearly visible, then the adopting individual or organization can more easily correlate the results to the innovation.  Generally, a decision-maker wants to be sure that the intended results can be measured, otherwise how can the innovation be evaluated?

Adoption of FT8

It is very clear that FT8 has a strong relative advantage to other modes. Just listen to the many comments from hams like “the band conditions are really bad but I’m still making contacts.” One could argue that FT8 is not that compatible with existing operating habits (think CW or SSB) but the mega-trend of using “sound card modes” is a huge enabler. For some time now, hams have been using the PC platform as a digital signal processing engine, using the sound card to handle the analog-to-digital conversion (and back). Perhaps this traces back to PSK31 as one of the major forces that caused hams to connect their transceivers to their computer. In that sense, FT8 is very compatible with existing sound-card-enabled stations, making it strong on compatibility and trialability. Just load up the WSJT-X software and give it a try. Of course, observability is strong too…now I’m making QSOs when I wasn’t before.

There is a bit of a learning curve with FT8, which could be a barrier to adoption. You need to learn the software and fiddle around with the settings to make it work. But for many hams, this is not a barrier but a fun challenge to take on. Most of us like to try new things, as long as they aren’t too frustrating.

The final point I’ll make is that the popularity of FT8 reinforces my contention that Ham Radio Is Not For Talking. FT8 is all about making a radio contact and does not enable conversations. Sure, most hams like to talk (usually about radios) but when the bands are poor they like making radio contacts via FT8. Making QSOs is king.

Those are my thoughts. What do you think?

73, Bob K0NR

The post FT8 Adoption: The New Cool Thing appeared first on The KØNR Radio Site.

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Jun 04 0252 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 May – 03 June 2018

Solar activity reached low levels during the period due to an isolated C-class event, a C2/Sf flare from Region 2712 (N15, L=176, class/area Csi/80 on 28 May). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels on 28-31 May and high levels on 01-03 June due to influence from a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The peak flux observed was 28,659 pfu at 02/1900 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 01 June and active levels on 31 May and 02 June due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the week.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 June – 30 June 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the period, with a slight chance for isolated C-class events on 04-05 and 18-30 June, due to flare potential from Region 2712.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach very high levels on 05-07 June with high levels expected on 04, 08-13, and 28-30 June. Moderate flux levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 28 June, with active levels on 27 and 29 June, due to influence from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled levels are expected on 04-05, 13, 19, and 30 June. Quiet conditions are expected during the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

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HOW CAN YOU HELP?

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

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..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 May 28 0238 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 – 27 May 2018

Solar activity reached low levels during the period due to an isolated C-class event, a C2 flare from Region 2712 (N13, L=172, class/area Csp/80 on 24 May). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels on 21-27 May.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 23 May due to influence from a positive polarity, coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 May – 23 June 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the period, with a slight chance for isolated C-class events on 28 May – 04 Jun and 10-23 Jun, due to flare potential from Regions 2711 (N06, L=288, class/area Cai/60 on 24 May) and 2712.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach very high levels on 05-07 Jun with high levels expected on 02-04 Jun and 08-13 Jun. Moderate flux levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 02 Jun with active levels on 01, and 03-04 Jun due to the influence of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled levels are expected on 28-29 May and 05-06, 13, 19 Jun. Quiet conditions are expected during the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

= = = = =

BOOK SALE: Space Weather and Sun Science – get these from Amazon, and help us stay online!

NOTICE: When you buy this (or any item after starting with this link), you are helping us keep our SunSpotWatch.com and other resources “on the air” (up and running!). In other words, you are helping the entire community. So, check out this book:

Here is the link to Amazon: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

= = = =

HOW CAN YOU HELP?

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

Spread the word, too!

= = = =

BOOK SALE: Space Weather and Sun Science – get these books from Amazon, and help this service stay online!

NOTICE: When you buy this (or any item after starting with this link), you are helping keep SunSpotWatch.com and other resources “on the air” (up and running!). In other words, you are helping the entire community. So, check out these books:

Here is the link to Amazon: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

= = = =

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users:

1) https://Twitter.com/NW7US
2) https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

= = = =

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the a five-year span with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

= = = =

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 May 21 0042 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 – 20 May 2018

Solar activity was very low throughout the period and no events were reported. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 14-17 May with moderate levels observed on 18-20 May.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 17 May due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole/high speed stream. Quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 May – 16 June 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach very high levels on 05-07 Jun with high levels expected on 02-04 and 08-13 Jun. Moderate flux levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 02 Jun and G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 01 Jun due to the influence of a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole/high speed stream. Active conditions are expected on 23 May and 03-05 Jun.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

= = = = =

BOOK SALE: Space Weather and Sun Science – get these from Amazon, and help us stay online!

NOTICE: When you buy this (or any item after starting with this link), you are helping us keep our SunSpotWatch.com and other resources “on the air” (up and running!). In other words, you are helping the entire community. So, check out this book:

Here is the link to Amazon: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

= = = =

HOW CAN YOU HELP?

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

Spread the word, too!

= = = =

BOOK SALE: Space Weather and Sun Science – get these books from Amazon, and help this service stay online!

NOTICE: When you buy this (or any item after starting with this link), you are helping keep SunSpotWatch.com and other resources “on the air” (up and running!). In other words, you are helping the entire community. So, check out these books:

Here is the link to Amazon: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

= = = =

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users:

1) https://Twitter.com/NW7US
2) https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

= = = =

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the a five-year span with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

= = = =

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 May 14 0629 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 – 13 May 2018

Solar activity was very low throughout the period and no reportable events were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels on 9-11 May and high levels were obseverd throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels on 07-09, 11-12 May due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole/high speed solar wind stream. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 10 May, and conditions were quiet on 13 May.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 May – 09 June 2018

Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach very high levels on 05-07 Jun with high levels expected on 14-26 May and 02-04, 08-09 Jun. Moderate flux levels are likely though the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 02 Jun with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms levels expected on 17 May and 01 Jun due to the influence of multiple coronal hole/high speed solar wind streams. Active conditions are expected on 18 May and 03-05 Jun and generally quiet or quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

= = = = =

BOOK SALE: Space Weather and Sun Science – get these from Amazon, and help us stay online!

NOTICE: When you buy this (or any item after starting with this link), you are helping us keep our SunSpotWatch.com and other resources “on the air” (up and running!). In other words, you are helping the entire community. So, check out this book:

Here is the link to Amazon: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 May 07 0147 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 April – 06 May 2018

Solar activity was very quiet throughout the reporting period. Region 2706 (N03, L=281, class/area Dao/130 on 22 Apr) produced the strongest event of the past week, a B1 flare on 01/2115 UTC. Activity on the farside of the Sun produced a halo CME signature first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 03/1712 UTC; however, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from normal to moderate levels from 30 Apr to 05 May. Influence from a negative polarity CH HSS caused an increase to high levels on 06 May with a peak flux of 11,500 pfu observed at 06/2305 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet until 05 May, when enhancements in the solar wind from the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS increased geomagnetic activity to G1 (Minor) storm levels. A further increase to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels were observed early on 06 May. Solar wind speeds peaked at just over 700 km/s and persisted just below 700 km/s through the end of the reporting period. Total field peaked during the CIR, with a maximum of 17 nT observed at 05/1340 UTC. The maximum southward value of Bz was -14 nT which was observed 05/1327 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 May – 02 June 2018

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels over the next 27 days.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels from 07-26 May and 02 Jun. Normal to moderate levels are expected over 27 May – 01 Jun. All enhancements in electron flux are attributed to the anticipation of influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 (Moderate) storm levels are likely on 17 May; G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 07 May and 02 Jun; active conditions are likely on 08-09 May, 18 May and 01 Jun; unsettled levels are likely on 10 May and 19 May. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet. All enhancements to geomagnetic activity are due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

= = = = =

BOOK SALE: Space Weather and Sun Science – get these from Amazon, and help us stay online!

NOTICE: When you buy this (or any item after starting with this link), you are helping us keep our SunSpotWatch.com and other resources “on the air” (up and running!). In other words, you are helping the entire community. So, check out this book:

Here is the link to Amazon: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Apr 30 0140 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 – 29 April 2018

Solar activity was very low. The strongest event of the period was a B2/Sf from Region 2706 (N03, L=281, class/area Dao/130 on 22 Apr) on 24/2145 UTC. The region slowly decayed to plage by 28 Apr. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels on 23-24 Apr, normal to high levels on 25 and 28 Apr, and moderate to high levels on 26, 27 and 29 Apr. The slowly decaying elevated levels were enhanced from CH HSS activity prior to 23 Apr.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with isolated periods of unsettled observed on 23 and 27 Apr. No notable disturbances in the solar wind were observed.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 April – 26 May 2018

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 30 Apr and 07-26 May. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 01-06 May. Enhancements in electron flux are expected due to the anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Quiet conditions are likely to persist until the arrival of the first of two negative polarity CH HSSs. Unsettled conditions on 06 May are likely to increase to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 07 May before decreasing to active on 08 May and finally unsettled over 09-10 May as the CH HSS wanes. Quiet conditions are then likely to persist over 11-16 May until the arrival of the second CH HSS. G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely on 17 May during the onset of the CIR ahead of the HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are likely on 18 May as total field strength decreases to around 5 nT with the HSS proper. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over 19 May as solar wind speeds slowly taper off. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet under a nominal solar wind environment.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

= = = = =

BOOK SALE: Space Weather and Sun Science – get these from Amazon, and help us stay online!

NOTICE: When you buy this (or any item after starting with this link), you are helping us keep our SunSpotWatch.com and other resources “on the air” (up and running!). In other words, you are helping the entire community. So, check out this book:

Here is the link to Amazon: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr