Weekly Propagation Summary – 2018 Apr 30 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2018 Apr 30 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Apr 30 0140 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 – 29 April 2018

Solar activity was very low. The strongest event of the period was a B2/Sf from Region 2706 (N03, L=281, class/area Dao/130 on 22 Apr) on 24/2145 UTC. The region slowly decayed to plage by 28 Apr. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels on 23-24 Apr, normal to high levels on 25 and 28 Apr, and moderate to high levels on 26, 27 and 29 Apr. The slowly decaying elevated levels were enhanced from CH HSS activity prior to 23 Apr.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with isolated periods of unsettled observed on 23 and 27 Apr. No notable disturbances in the solar wind were observed.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 April – 26 May 2018

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 30 Apr and 07-26 May. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 01-06 May. Enhancements in electron flux are expected due to the anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Quiet conditions are likely to persist until the arrival of the first of two negative polarity CH HSSs. Unsettled conditions on 06 May are likely to increase to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 07 May before decreasing to active on 08 May and finally unsettled over 09-10 May as the CH HSS wanes. Quiet conditions are then likely to persist over 11-16 May until the arrival of the second CH HSS. G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely on 17 May during the onset of the CIR ahead of the HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are likely on 18 May as total field strength decreases to around 5 nT with the HSS proper. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over 19 May as solar wind speeds slowly taper off. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet under a nominal solar wind environment.

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