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Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Oct 10 0105 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 – 09 October 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels with a few background flares observed from Regions 2598 (N14, L=174, class/area Dai/140 on 07 Oct), 2599 (S14, L=144, class/area Cko/460 on 05 Oct) and 2600 (N13, L=105, class/area Cso/110 on 09 Oct). On 08 Oct, between 08/1500-1700 UTC, a 10 degree long filament erupted in the NE quadrant centered near N38E40. A slow-moving, asymmetric, partial-halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery, first visible at 09/0048 UTC.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the entire summary period. A maximum of 32,138 pfu was observed at 03/1640 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was highlighted by mostly unsettled to active levels on 03-05 Oct. An isolated minor storm (G1-Minor) period was observed early on 04 Oct. Mostly quiet levels were observed from 04-09 Oct with isolated unsettled and active periods were observed early on 07 and 08 Oct, respectively. The enhanced geomagnetic activity was due to high speed winds from a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. Some further enhancement occurred early on 04 Oct due to CME effects from an eruptive filament observed early on 01 Oct.

The solar wind environment began the period at about 500 km/s, increased to near 600 km/s midday on 04 Oct and slowly decreased to end the period at about 370 km/s. Total field generally ranged from 2-6 nT with a peak of 10 nt observed midday on 04 Oct. The Bz component was mostly variable between +/- 6 nT. Phi angle was in a general positive orientation throughout the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 October – 05 November 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 10-11, 16-18, 24-26, 30-31 Oct and 01-06 Nov increasing to very high levels on 27-29 Oct. This is due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 11-18, 23-31 Oct and 01 Nov. G1 (Minor) field activity is possible on 13-15, 17 and 23-31 Oct with G2 (Moderate) levels possible on 24-26 Oct. This activity is due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Additional enhancement to the field is expected on 13-14 Oct due to CME effects from the 08 Oct filament eruption. Generally quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Oct 03 0200 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 September – 02 October 2016

Solar activity was at predominately very low levels with an isolated C1/Sf flare observed at 27/0748 UTC from Region 2597 (S13, L=349, class/area Dsc/120 on 24 Sep). This region also produced numerous background flares during the period. The only other spotted region on the disk, new Region 2598 (N12, L=172, class/area Bxo/010 on 02 Oct), produced a few background flares late in the period.

Other activity consisted of a pair of CMEs that were observed lifting off the NE limb on 01 Oct. At 01/0139 UTC, a 38 degree long filament erupted that was centered near N26E27. C2 LASCO imagery observed a CME off the east limb, first visible at 01/0248 UTC. Later in the day at 01/1340 UTC, coronal dimming was observed in the NE quadrant with an associated CME off the east limb, first visible in C2 LASCO imagery at 01/1424 UTC. WSA-Enlil model output suggested a possible weak, glancing impact at Earth mid to late on 04 Oct.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 26 Sep, moderate levels on 27 Sep, high levels on 28-29 Sep and 02 Oct and very high levels on 30 Sep and 01 Oct.

Geomagnetic field activity was dominated during the period by a large, recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Field activity began the period on 26 Sep at unsettled to active levels due to a period of prolonged southward Bz to -10 Nt. Wind speeds were in the 400-425 km/s range through midday on 26 Sep when a gradual increase to near 475 km/s was observed by early on 27 Sep. Through 27 Sep, wind speeds continued to increase to end the day near 700 km/s as the CH HSS became geoeffective. Bz was variable between +/- 9 nT. The geomagnetic field reacted with unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels with isolated major storm (G2-Moderate) levels.

From 28 Sep through midday on 30 Sep, wind speeds remained in the 700 km/s range while the Bz component was variable at +/- 5 nT. Field conditions remained at predominately unsettled to G1 storm levels with isolated G2 storm periods observed on 28 and 29 Sep. From midday on 30 Sep through 02 Oct, wind speeds slowly decreased to end the summary period near 475 km/s. Bz remained variable between +/- 5 nT. Field conditions responded with quiet to active levels with some isolated G1 storm periods.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 October – 29 October 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares through the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 03-06 Oct, 18 Oct and 24-28 Oct and very high levels 27-29 Oct due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 03-05 Oct, 16-18 Oct and 23-29 Oct. G1(Minor) field activity is possible on 17 Oct and 23-29 Oct with G2 (Moderate) activity possible on 24-26 Oct. This activity is due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Generally quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Sep 26 0103 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 – 25 September 2016

Solar activity reached low levels this period due to isolated C-class flare activity. Region 2595 (N11, L=099, class/area=Dao/120 on 20 Sep) was the most productive region this period. In addition to multiple low-level C-class flares Region 2595 produced the largest event of the period, a C5 flare at 22/0547 UTC. Region 2597 (S13, L=349, class/area=Dsc/120 on 24 Sep) developed late in the week and produced an isolated C1 flare at 25/1914 UTC in addition to numerous B-class flares. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed this period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 21 Sep, moderate levels on 22-23 Sep, and was at normal levels throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 20 Sep with active levels observed on 21 Sep in response to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed again on 25 Sep due to prolonged periods of southward interplanetary magnetic field orientation. Quiet conditions were observed on 22-24 Sep and quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 19 Sep under a background solar wind environment.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 September – 22 October 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the period with a chance for C-class flare activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be very high on 02 Oct with high levels expected on 29 Sep-01 Oct, 03-11 Oct, and 18 Oct following periods of an enhanced solar wind environment associated with coronal hole high speed stream influence. Normal and normal to moderate flux levels are expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 28-30 Sep and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 26 Sep, 01-02 Oct, and 17 Oct due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind streams. Active conditions are expected on 27 Sep, 03 Oct, and 18 Oct with generally quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions likely throughout the remainder of the period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Sep 19 0130 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 – 18 September 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the period. Region 2585 (N08, L=222, class/area=Ekc/590 on 03 Sep) was the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk this week, however, the region only produced low-level B-class flare activity before rotating out of view early in the period. Region 2592 (N14, L=027, class/area=Bxo/10 on 18 Sep) produced several low-level B-class flares in the latter half of the week, but was relatively simple throughout the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 12-14 Sep, moderate levels on 18 Sep, and were at normal levels on 15-17 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 13, 16-27 Sep and quiet to unsettled on 12, 14-15, and 18 Sep under a mostly nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 September – 15 October 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a change for C-class flares throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach very high levels on 02-05 Oct with high levels expected on 21-25, 29 Sep-01 Oct, and 06-11 Oct following solar wind enhancements associated with the influence of multiple coronal hole high speed streams. Electron flux is expected to be at normal or normal to moderate levels throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 28-30 Sep and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 19-20 Sep and 01 Oct due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent coronal hole high speed streams. Active conditions are expected on 21 Sep and 02-05 Oct with generally quiet or quiet to unsettled conditions likely throughout the remainder of the period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Sep 12 0323 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 – 11 September 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels on 05-11 Sep. Region 2591 (N05, L=144, Cro/025 on 11 Sep) produced a B9.6 flare at 10/1920 UTC, the strongest of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels on 05 Sep and high levels from 06-11 Sep due to CH HSS influence. The largest flux value of the period was 56,842 pfu observed at 05/1815 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels on 05 Sep due to a period of prolonged southward Bz during the waning phase of a CH HSS. Solar wind speed continued to decline over the period from a high near 600 km/s to 340 km/s by the end of the period. Activity decreased to quiet to active conditions on 06 Sep and to quiet to unsettled conditions on 07 Sep. A final increase to quiet to active conditions was observed on 08 Sep before quiet conditions dominated for the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 September – 08 October 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 12-20 Sep and 26-28 Sep. High levels expected on 21-25 Sep, 29 Sep – 01 Oct, and 06-08 Oct. Very high levels are likely between 02-05 Oct. High and very high levels are anticipated to result from recurrent CH HSS events.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 12 Sep as a solar sector boundary crossing is anticipated to transition into a weak, negative polarity, CH HSS. As the CH HSS influence wanes, quiet to unsettled levels are likely over 13-14 Sep. Quiet conditions are expected on 15-16 Sep under an ambient solar wind environment. 17-21 Sep will likely to be at quiet to active conditions as a negative polarity CH HSS influences the near-Earth environment. Quiet conditions are again expected from 22-25 Sep. 26-27 Sep are likely to be at unsettled to active conditions from a small, positive polarity, CH HSS. 28-30 Sep are likely to see field active range from unsettled to major storm levels from a strong, positive polarity, CH HSS. As the CH HSS influence wanes, unsettled to minor storm levels are likely on 01 Oct and quiet to active levels are expected from 02-05 Oct. Quiet conditions are expected to return over 06-08 Oct under a nominal solar wind regime.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Sep 05 0405 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 August – 04 September 2016

Solar activity was at low levels from 29-31 Aug. Regions 2583 (N13, L=025, class/area Dao/130 on 29 Aug) and 2585 (N08, L=222, class/area Ekc/590 on 03 Sep) were responsible for the C-class activity. Activity dropped to very low levels for the remainder of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 29 Aug and 02-04 Sep due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 29-31 Aug with active conditions late on 30 Aug due to CH HSS effects. Mostly active to major storm conditions were observed on 01-03 Sep due to effects from an extension of the northern polar coronal hole. Active to minor storm levels prevailed on 04 Sep due to continued CH HSS effects.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 September – 01 October 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high to very high levels on 05-12 Sep due to CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 13-20 Sep and 26-28 Sep. High levels are expected on 21-25 Sep and 29 Sep-01 Oct due to effects from anticipated recurrent CH HSS events.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 05-06 Sep with minor storms expected early on 05 Sep as CH HSS effects continue. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 07-08 Sep as effects begin to subside. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 09-18 Sep with isolated unsettled periods likely on 13, 14 and 17 Sep due to weak recurrent CH HSS events. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 19-21 Sep with active periods possible on 19 Sep due to effects from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 22-25 Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 26-27 Sep followed by active to major storm levels from 26 Sep-01 Oct due to effects from the northern polar coronal hole extension.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Aug 29 0520 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 – 28 August 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels the majority of the period with low levels reached on 28 August due to an isolated C1/Sf flare at 28/2128 UTC from Region 2583 (N13, L=023, class/area Dao/030 on 28 Aug). Regions 2579 (N12, L=034, class/area Dao/090 on 23 Aug) and 2581 (N12, L=337, class/area Cao/110 on 28 Aug) were the largest spot groups on the visible disk, but were in a decay phase as of 24 and 28 August, respectively. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 22 August, moderate levels on 23-24 August, and high levels from 25-28 August. The maximum flux reached 2,334 pfu at 27/1705 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1-minor storm levels during the period. The beginning of the period, solar wind conditions were nominal with solar wind speeds between 350 km/s and 420 km/s. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 22 August. By 23 August, total field increased to around 14 nT with the solar wind speed increasing to around 550 km/s as a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moved into geoeffective position. By midday on 24 August, total field had decreased to near 5 nT, however solar wind speeds remained elevated until late on 25 August when they began to decline. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to G1-minor storm levels on 23-24 August, followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 25-27 August. Quiet conditions were observed on 28 August under a nominal solar wind environment.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 August – 24 September 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels expected on 31 August-12 September and again from 21-24 September due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 29 August-08 September, 13-14 September, 17 September, and 19-21 September with G1-minor storm levels likely on 29-30 August due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr