Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Oct 03 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2016 Oct 03 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Oct 03 0200 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 September – 02 October 2016

Solar activity was at predominately very low levels with an isolated C1/Sf flare observed at 27/0748 UTC from Region 2597 (S13, L=349, class/area Dsc/120 on 24 Sep). This region also produced numerous background flares during the period. The only other spotted region on the disk, new Region 2598 (N12, L=172, class/area Bxo/010 on 02 Oct), produced a few background flares late in the period.

Other activity consisted of a pair of CMEs that were observed lifting off the NE limb on 01 Oct. At 01/0139 UTC, a 38 degree long filament erupted that was centered near N26E27. C2 LASCO imagery observed a CME off the east limb, first visible at 01/0248 UTC. Later in the day at 01/1340 UTC, coronal dimming was observed in the NE quadrant with an associated CME off the east limb, first visible in C2 LASCO imagery at 01/1424 UTC. WSA-Enlil model output suggested a possible weak, glancing impact at Earth mid to late on 04 Oct.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 26 Sep, moderate levels on 27 Sep, high levels on 28-29 Sep and 02 Oct and very high levels on 30 Sep and 01 Oct.

Geomagnetic field activity was dominated during the period by a large, recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Field activity began the period on 26 Sep at unsettled to active levels due to a period of prolonged southward Bz to -10 Nt. Wind speeds were in the 400-425 km/s range through midday on 26 Sep when a gradual increase to near 475 km/s was observed by early on 27 Sep. Through 27 Sep, wind speeds continued to increase to end the day near 700 km/s as the CH HSS became geoeffective. Bz was variable between +/- 9 nT. The geomagnetic field reacted with unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels with isolated major storm (G2-Moderate) levels.

From 28 Sep through midday on 30 Sep, wind speeds remained in the 700 km/s range while the Bz component was variable at +/- 5 nT. Field conditions remained at predominately unsettled to G1 storm levels with isolated G2 storm periods observed on 28 and 29 Sep. From midday on 30 Sep through 02 Oct, wind speeds slowly decreased to end the summary period near 475 km/s. Bz remained variable between +/- 5 nT. Field conditions responded with quiet to active levels with some isolated G1 storm periods.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 October – 29 October 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares through the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 03-06 Oct, 18 Oct and 24-28 Oct and very high levels 27-29 Oct due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 03-05 Oct, 16-18 Oct and 23-29 Oct. G1(Minor) field activity is possible on 17 Oct and 23-29 Oct with G2 (Moderate) activity possible on 24-26 Oct. This activity is due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Generally quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

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Tomas Hood, NW7US, is a regular contributor to AmateurRadio.com and writes from Nebraska, USA. Tomas is the Space Weather and Radio Propagation Contributing Editor to 'CQ Amateur Radio Magazine', 'The Spectrum Monitor', and 'RadioUser UK Magazine'.

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