Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Sep 12 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2016 Sep 12 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Sep 12 0323 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 – 11 September 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels on 05-11 Sep. Region 2591 (N05, L=144, Cro/025 on 11 Sep) produced a B9.6 flare at 10/1920 UTC, the strongest of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels on 05 Sep and high levels from 06-11 Sep due to CH HSS influence. The largest flux value of the period was 56,842 pfu observed at 05/1815 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels on 05 Sep due to a period of prolonged southward Bz during the waning phase of a CH HSS. Solar wind speed continued to decline over the period from a high near 600 km/s to 340 km/s by the end of the period. Activity decreased to quiet to active conditions on 06 Sep and to quiet to unsettled conditions on 07 Sep. A final increase to quiet to active conditions was observed on 08 Sep before quiet conditions dominated for the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 September – 08 October 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 12-20 Sep and 26-28 Sep. High levels expected on 21-25 Sep, 29 Sep – 01 Oct, and 06-08 Oct. Very high levels are likely between 02-05 Oct. High and very high levels are anticipated to result from recurrent CH HSS events.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 12 Sep as a solar sector boundary crossing is anticipated to transition into a weak, negative polarity, CH HSS. As the CH HSS influence wanes, quiet to unsettled levels are likely over 13-14 Sep. Quiet conditions are expected on 15-16 Sep under an ambient solar wind environment. 17-21 Sep will likely to be at quiet to active conditions as a negative polarity CH HSS influences the near-Earth environment. Quiet conditions are again expected from 22-25 Sep. 26-27 Sep are likely to be at unsettled to active conditions from a small, positive polarity, CH HSS. 28-30 Sep are likely to see field active range from unsettled to major storm levels from a strong, positive polarity, CH HSS. As the CH HSS influence wanes, unsettled to minor storm levels are likely on 01 Oct and quiet to active levels are expected from 02-05 Oct. Quiet conditions are expected to return over 06-08 Oct under a nominal solar wind regime.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

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Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

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Tomas Hood, NW7US, is a regular contributor to AmateurRadio.com and writes from Nebraska, USA. Tomas is the Space Weather and Radio Propagation Contributing Editor to 'CQ Amateur Radio Magazine', 'The Spectrum Monitor', and 'RadioUser UK Magazine'.

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