Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Aug 08 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Aug 08 0119 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 – 07 August 2016
Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels. Very low levels occurred on 01-04 and 06 Aug with low levels on 05 Aug and low to moderate levels on 07 Aug. Region 2572 (N13, L=320, class/area Dao/110 on 07 Aug) produced a C1/Sf flare observed at 05/1012 UTC. On 07 Aug, activity increased to moderate levels with an impulsive M1 (R1-Minor) x-ray event observed at 07/1444 UTC from an active region just beyond the SW limb. 07 Aug also saw numerous C-class flares. Region 2571 (N12, L=267, class/area Dai/150 on 07 Aug) produced a C5 event at 07/2232 UTC. New Region 2573 (N08, L=177, class/area Dso/060 on 07 Aug) produced a C8/Sf at 07/1509 UTC. No Earth-directed CMES were observed during the summary period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate flux levels on 02-03 Aug and high flux levels on 01 and 04-07 Aug. The highest flux reading was 16, 206 pfu observed at 06/1445 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels. The period began on 01 Aug at quiet levels under a nominal solar wind regime. Midday on 02 Aug, activity levels increased to unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels due to shock enhancement from the arrival of the 28 Jul CME coupled with a CIR in advance of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds increased from about 310 km/s early on 02 Aug to near 550 km/s by midday on 03 Aug. Unsettled to minor storm levels persisted through 03 Aug.
Wind speeds increased further on 04-05 Aug with a peak speed of near 675 km/s recorded late on 05 Aug. Winds speeds began a slow decay on 06 Aug. Mostly unsettled to active conditions were observed on 04-06 Aug. By 07 Aug, wind speeds decreased to about 500 km/s as effects from the CH HSS waned. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 07 Aug.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 August – 03 September 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 08-20 Aug due to the flare potential from Regions 2573 and 2574. Very low to low levels are expected on 21 Aug – 01 Sep. An increase to low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) are expected on 02-03 Sep with the return of Regions 2573 and 2574.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high flux levels on 08-15, 22-23 and 26-28 Aug and again on 31 Aug-03 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 08 Aug and again on 31 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 09-11, 15-16, 18-19, 24-25, 29 and 30-31 Aug along with 01-03 Sep, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet conditions are expeced for the remainder of the outlook period.
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