Posts Tagged ‘solar cycle’

Solar decline

There is little doubt now that we have passed the solar peak and we are now on the way to the minimum. This is still years away mind you. This graph (located at http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png) illustrates this well. As I said before, it is too early to say just how poor HF conditions will get.

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

Radio propagation and space weather course

As the propagation columnist for several amateur radio magazines, I hear from a diverse group of interested people that find space weather and the propagation of radio waves fascinating. I admit: I am a space weather and radio propagation nut, and it is always good to correspond or meet with other interested folks. This is an aspect of our hobby that never grows old, as there is so much that we don’t yet know–we communicators are in a perfect space to make discovery and to make improvements to our understanding of this science.  Over the years, I’ve heard a lot from readers of my columns, expressing their fascination with the science of radio and solar phenomenon.

Are you interested in learning about the Sun and the Sun-Earth connection (space weather), including topics of sunspots, solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and so on?  Do you want to delve deeper into topics including the ionosphere, the magnetosphere, and how radio waves propagate from transmitter to receiver?

foF2 Map for June 2014

The critical frequency (foF2) for mornings during June 2014.

You might consider a time-proven “course”–material that is very comprehensive–that you can self-study, to become well-versed in this information. The course (one that has been used in professional disciplines) is offered either stand-alone, or bundled with the ray-tracing PropLab PRO software. 

Some may say, “But, I like the magic of just getting on the air and trying my luck! If I learn all this stuff, then it becomes science, and not a hobby.” It is true that there’s a joy at being dazzled with the magic of radio; buy a super cool transceiver, and a factory-made antenna with coax already fitted with connectors, adding the necessary accessories to make it come alive, then begin exploring the shortwave frequencies. Magical, indeed! But, there are many in the hobby that wish to learn how all of that works. Some even begin learning how to build antennas, radio kits, and discover the joy of the “science” of radio. A few eventually take the step with gained “scientific” knowledge of electronics, and they design and build equipment for their hobby. The course is part of that mix: learning how the Sun affects getting a radio signal from point A to point B, and how to leverage their time and efforts, is a joy, indeed.

Interested?  Here’s the web page: http://hfradio.org/swp_course/

 

Ray Traced Radio Wave

PropLab PRO creates ray-traced radio wave analysis

 

If any disclosure is necessary, here you go: The proceeds from a purchase of this course go to the funds I use to keep cw.HFRadio.org, swl.HFRadio.org, and other resources at HFRadio.org, plus http://SunSpotWatch.com up and running. There are monthly fees, yearly fees, and software licensing to cover, as well as the purchase of hardware from time to time. These operating and maintenance funds are mostly covered by me, Tomas, NW7US, out of my personal funds. Any donations and sales helps out. Haters and Hecklers can send their comments to the bit bucket.

73 de NW7US

LHS Episode #121: Freudian Linux

freud-cancerIt’s the first episode of 2014, and we start the year off right: by talking about philosophy. Say what? Yep, that’s right. Trust us, it’s a lot more entertaining that it might at first sound. We have a special guest on the program, Ted (WA0EIR), who brings a through-provoking topic with him. Then we have a bunch of the usual suspects, including short topics on Linux, amateur radio, science and more. There is even feedback, info on our Indiegogo campaign for Hamvention and our Raspberry Pi giveaway. Don’t miss it!

73 de The LHS Guys

My first 50-MHz QSOs with Japan from new Colorado QTH

I made contact with 19 Japanese stations yesterday afternoon (June 14, 2013) on the 50-MHz (6 meter) band between 2314 and 2356 UTC.  This was my first “JA opening” on 50-MHz in a LONG time; my last Japanese QSOs on 50-MHz were back in the ’90s when we lived in Tiffany, Colorado (grid square DM67), a bit south of our new home in Glade Park, Colorado (grid square DM59pa). During the years we lived in Vermont the furthest west I ever reached on 50-MHz was Guam, a bit short of Japan.

If I’m anywhere near my radio (and sometimes when I’m not – thank you, smartphone) I point a Web browser at the “ON4KST 50 MHz IARU Region 2″ chat page to read late breaking 50-MHz DX related news, spots, rumors and general chatter especially during during times of the year when 50 MHz propagation is known to be possible:

  • Around the spring and autumn equinoxes for Trans-Equatorial Propagation (TEP)
  • May through the first half of August for the northern hemisphere summer Sporadic-E (Es) season
  • A few weeks either side of New Year’s Day for the northern hemisphere winter Es season sometimes with propagation links to the southern hemisphere
  • And – if we had more sunspots than Cycle 24 has seen fit thus far to bequeath – the northern hemisphere autumn and winter for F2 propagation

(Of course 50-MHz can open at any time of day and year and much of what happens on “The Magic Band” is poorly understood.  But the periods above are the ‘prime time for six.’)

It all began yesterday afternoon at 2200 UTC (which was 4 pm Colorado time) when Han JE1BMJ, a noted 50-MHz enthusiast and propagation theorist, was reported on 50,090.5 kHz by Jay K0GU on the ‘KST chat which grabbed my attention.  Jay lives in Wellington, Colorado (grid square DN70mq) about 230 miles east of me and is a dedicated, experienced 50-MHz DXer.  Jay hears a lot of stations before any one else in the Rocky Mountain region and his ‘KST posts are always worth noting.  I turned my new 50-MHz antenna (thanks to K7JA for assistance in building and installing this last month and of course G0KSC for the design) towards Japan – 312 degrees azimuth – and started listening.  At 2226 UTC I started hearing Han’s CW (Morse Code) signal slowly fade and out.

Green Heron RT-20D controlling a Spid RAK rotator

Green Heron RT-20D controlling a Spid RAK rotator

When I first attempted to make contact with Han but he was unable to hear my complete callsign and was responding to me as “AA7X” (leaving off the final T, I am AA7XT).  I eventually stopped calling JE1BMJ – I didn’t want to ‘hog the DX’ as Han and other Japanese stations were being heard over much of the US.  For a two-way contact to be considered legitimate in ham radio circles each party must copy correctly the other parties callsign and preferably some other information such as a signal report.

DXMaps.com caught the action!

DXMaps.com caught the action!

At 2314 I noticed Han’s signal had gotten louder so I called him again and made a solid contact straight away.  Success!  I was amazed my ‘barefoot’ (no amplifier, only 80 Watts output) Elecraft K3 transceiver and InnovAntennas 8 element LFA Yagi (an awesome antenna but it was on a tower parked at only 3 meters [10 feet ]above ground due to recent high winds) were making the 9,000 kilometer journey!  At ten feet up towards Japan my antenna was looking into a hillside!  I listened to Han work other stations for a few few minutes and savored the moment.

InnovAntennas 8 element 50-MHz LFA Yagi

InnovAntennas 8 element 50-MHz LFA Yagi

Here’s a short YouTube video I made of JE1BMJ’s signal yesterday:

I would have likely made many more contacts if had started calling CQ earlier!  For a long time I was only hearing JE1BMJ so I didn’t bother calling CQ until around a full hour after opening started.  I had an ‘instant pileup’ after first my CQ call; clearly I should have started CQing much earlier – Doh!  I proceeded to work 18 more Japanese stations before the path closed:

UTCkHzMODECALLKMGRIDRST_RCVDRST_SENT
235650,093.0CWJA0DET9079.748PM97jk559559
235550,093.0CWJA7LGE9355.597PM85io559529
235050,093.0CWJA0MVW9011.677PM97ox559559
234950,093.0CWJA7DDK8920.079QM08dg599549
234850,093.0CWJH1RFR9063.668PM96wr559559
234650,093.0CWJN1JFC9355.597PM85io559549
234550,093.0CWJQ1TIV9355.597PM85io559559
234450,093.0CWJA1UAV9133.899PM96ta559559
234350,093.0CWJR2UKF9351.394PM85km559559
234250,093.0CWJF2WXS9355.597PM85io559559
234150,093.0CWJA7KE8843.041QM08pk559569
234050,093.0CWJH1MDJ9355.597PM85io579559
233950,093.0CWJA0RUG9066.984PM97jo599599
233850,093.0CWJH7FNM8856.099QM08ml579569
233750,093.0CWJA7EVP9355.597PM85io599529
233450,093.0CWJI1DMH9150.703PM96nf559549
233150,093.0CWJH0INP9155.598PM96cw559559
232950,093.0CWJA9SJI9236.878PM86pp559559
231450,094.5CWJE1BMJ9355.597PM85io559559

 

Toshi ,JA0RUG, who I worked during this opening, sent me a MP3 recording of my signal as heard in Japan (click on link to listen to the audio):

2013June14-2340z-AA7XT-50.093MHz-CW

Here are the grids I worked during yesterday’s opening:

The WG7J Gridmapper is a great post opening analysis tool

The WG7J Gridmapper is a great post opening analysis tool

The first hop was certainly Es as I was hearing loud stations in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia at reasonable Es single distance, but how about the rest of the way?  Han, JE1BMJ, the first station I worked in this opening, has developed a theory on these openings – which cluster around the summer solstice – and he has dubbed the mechanism “Short-path Summer Solstice Propagation” aka SSSP.  Articles on SSSP by JE1BMJ, W3ZZ, WB2AMU and KH6/K6MIO have been published in Dubus, CQ VHF, Six News and elsewhere.  Here are a few links:

So far, SSSP, if it in fact exists (such mysteries make 50-MHz DXing a fascinating avocation!) seems to be unique to the 50-MHz band.  I look forward to learning more about SSSP as more and more DXers become aware of the mode and watch for it.  Ham Radio is the exception to the ‘watched pot never boils’ rule of thumb.  In DXing, an unwatched band never opens!  One interesting note is that propagation like SSSP frequently repeats itself the next day so you can be sure I will be at my radio this afternoon!

73 and CU on the Magic Band!

Bill AA7XT

 

PS:  Some interesting recordings of 50-MHz DX signals heard in Japan by JE1BMJ can be found here (including yours truly):

http://audioboo.fm/han01a

Will Solar Cycle 24 Be 17 Years long?

Read an interesting Blog today about three Norwegian scientists who used historical solar green corona emissions data to predict that Solar Cycle 24 will be 17 years long, 4.5 years longer than Solar Cycle 23:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/11/quantifying-the-solar-cycle-24-temperature-decline/

The Norwegian study referred to in the Blog is available for download here:

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.1954v1.pdf

We are currently in Cycle 24 which has, thus far, been lackluster as far as sunspots and solar flux go.  I haven’t read the Norwegian study in detail, yet – I’m curious to know when the Norwegian authors think Cycle 24 will peak and at what level of solar activity and how they reached their conclusions.

My fingers are crossed for a vigorous Cycle 24 peak as it would be nice to have a bout or two (or three) of temperate latittude F2 propagation on 50-MHz before sliding down to the Cycle 24/25 trough!

73
Bill AA7XT

 

Our little sliver of time

All the news sources–I saw it on Yahoo!, of all places–are churning out stories today about the current state of the surface of the sun. Three different “experts” have issued dire predictions about the sleepy sun and what it means for mankind…and not just us hams, who enjoy bouncing signals off an ionized atmosphere.

You know as well as I do that simply saying this cycle is slow to develop is not going to attract much reader interest. But if you say there is the possibility that the dormancy of Ole Sol portends historic implications, that it could reverse the effects of that evil, man-made global warming (or make it even more dire), that there could be unknown but potentially catastrophic weather events as a result…heck, even that we are on the verge of another Maunder Minimum, when the sun went to sleep for 300 years and we entered a “mini-Ice Age!”…then you will get some attention. Attention to your columns, your websites, your blogs, your books, your speeches.

I know it is human nature to see things from a very narrow perspective. Understanding things like climate change that usually take eons to be obvious and drawing conclusions about variations in sunspot minima and maxima that only occur in eleven-year cycles are difficult for us mortals to do. Geologic time and cosmologic time and distance are impossible for us to comprehend in our simple little seven- or eight-decade life spans. That’s why all the junk about rapid climate change (which I consider normal weather variation and based on decidedly short-term data) has found so many who are willing to swallow it, hook, line and sinker.

I admit I know little about sunspots or solar weather, beyond the fact that more spots equal better propagation on the high-frequency radio bands and pretty displays of the Northern Lights. And I appreciate data and scientific observation. But seems to me that it is far too early to say the sun is going to be dozing for the next three centuries simply because cycle 24 is a tad bit slow to get moving. After all, many of these same “experts” were touting what an active cycle this was going to be…and they were doing it only a year or so ago.

Reminds me of the high-tech “weather rock” my wife has in her flower garden. “If this rock is wet, it is raining. If it is dry, it is sunny. If it is white, it is snowing.”

I’m still hoping for an active solar cycle. I have somehow managed to be inactive in my amateur radio activities during each of the past two cycle maxima, and I had high hopes for that “arm-chair” ragchew with the Far East on 10 meters in the middle of the day. But if it doesn’t measure up, so be it. I talked to plenty of guys all over the world at the yawning chasm between the peaks, after all.

But most of all, I’d like to see everyone calm down a bit and not be so myopic. We see only a tiny slice of time in our own existence. Even so-called scientific observations are looking at a pitifully narrow slab of time and only a tiny bit of reliable data.

Put it into perspective before you panic and sell all your ham gear. Or before you stop gazing northward for a glimpse of the aurora borealis.

By the way, I checked. There is nothing we can do about the state of the sun’s surface anyway, so why worry?

Don N4KC
www.n4kc.com
www.donkeith.com


Subscribe FREE to AmateurRadio.com's
Amateur Radio Newsletter

 
We never share your e-mail address.


Do you like to write?
Interesting project to share?
Helpful tips and ideas for other hams?

Submit an article and we will review it for publication on AmateurRadio.com!

Have a ham radio product or service?
Consider advertising on our site.

Are you a reporter covering ham radio?
Find ham radio experts for your story.

How to Set Up a Ham Radio Blog
Get started in less than 15 minutes!


  • Matt W1MST, Managing Editor




Sign up for our free
Amateur Radio Newsletter

Enter your e-mail address: