AmateurRadio.com

Is amateur radio in the United States dying? The short answer is NO. But it is CHANGING. Here is why and how.

Author's note: Several months ago, I was contacted by a corporate sales broker to prepare a brief assessment of the ham radio market. This article is a version of that work. It is based upon best available evidence rather than a well-funded deep-dive study of the commercial market for amateur radio.

Those who read online sites devoted to amateur radio, listen to or contribute to on-air rag chews, attend hamfests, or read published media devoted to amateur radio have heard many, many times: amateur radio is “dying”.

But what does the term “dying” mean in this context? The Oxford English Dictionary offers the following definition:

Dying: Adjective. 1. That is at the point of death; in a dying state, close to collapse; 2. That is ceasing to exist, function, or be in use; 3. Esp. of a period of time: final, concluding, closing.

It is clear that the connotation is “ceasing to exist, function, or be in use” by the many hams who claim this.

I address this belief as to whether there is any actual evidence supporting it. Short answer? No. But the hobby itself is changing.

The problem is that there is a disjuncture between the “knower” and the “known,” a well-known philosophical issue in epistemology, going back to Descartes. What these hams “know” is based on several factors, none of which lead to an accurate reading of the larger ham radio “room.” To start, it is based on selective information about the hobby as a whole. I explain why this “information silo” yields an incorrect inference to rank-and-file hams. The elements of how the hobby is changing are described with “best available data.” Conclusions on how these changes are shaping the commercial market for the amateur radio hobby are discussed. In the end, the reader may disagree with my conclusions. I would welcome objective, observable evidence to the contrary as my motivation is simply to better understand the hobby but here is my assessment for my recent consultancy.

Is amateur radio dying? Short answer? No. But the hobby itself is changing.

Selective Information

The widely held perception of the pending “death” of amateur radio comes from a selective set of observations that focus almost entirely on the Baby Boomer generation. This is the bias of one’s “personal windshield” as the basis of knowing.

Here’s what I mean. Driving an automobile to and from a work location, for instance, gives a clear sense of the immediate area of residence, the place of work and the typical route(s) from one to the other. But only during specific times of day when that travel is routine. It rarely gives a complete picture of the communities themselves. For example, freeways cut through neighborhoods without any visibility of them or any inclusion in one’s recollection of what is there, except what is visible via the windshield of the automobile. Contrast this with the use of an aerial view through, say, Google Earth, which allows one to visualize far beyond what the daily drive can allow. This personal windshield view is largely taken-for-granted as observable fact, based on personal observation. This is difficult to challenge by independent facts. But they should be. I do that now.

Collectively, we hams look at hamfests and formal print/digital publications and see mostly elderly hams, members of the Greatest Generation or the Baby Boom. Some, but few, young people. These sources of information largely sample elderly hams since these are festivals organized and managed for the most part by Boomers themselves. (This is what statisticians call a “convenience sample” which doesn’t generalize to a wider population but is valid within the limits of the observations themselves.) The post-Boomer generation participants are geared toward digital media, especially Youtube and such, and are not likely to be nearly as present in conventional print media. Or at a hamfest. (The ARRL has recently been waving its arms editorially to balance this. It has not had much effect in my personal windshield. Has it yours?) Hence, the “personal windshield” suggests that the hobby must be in the process of expiring as is the Baby Boomer generation itself. And that view is powerful at a personal level.

Why This Interpretation is Wrong

This perception is patently false based on independent data, while it is likely very accurate for hamfests. How can a hobby be dying when there are more licensed hams than ever before, some 780,000, according to the FCC? Annual FCC amateur radio license growth is generally 1-2% per year. This out-paces overall population growth in the U.S at 0.5 percent. There are also over 20,000 “repeaters” (think cell towers for ham operators) in the U.S. today (21, 611 as shown on RepeaterBook.com as of a recent check). Each one is installed and maintained at considerable expense by the individual ham or group owning the repeater system. This expense is not trivial. Thus, ham radio numbers are continuing to increase in absolute terms and exceed the rate of general population growth. See Figures 1 and 2 shown below. But why is there the perception of a “dying” hobby in the face of these objectively counter-intuitive indicators? It’s the power of the personal windshield in operation.

There are other social forces at work here, too. The political scientist, Robert Putnam (see Bowling Alone), characterized the social fabric of the U.S. in recent times as declining in social capital, our social connections with each other, promoting the ability to make collective decisions for the benefit of the group. From his group’s website:

Putnam draws on evidence including nearly 500,000 interviews over the last quarter century to show that we sign fewer petitions, belong to fewer organizations that meet, know our neighbors less, meet with friends less frequently, and even socialize with our families less often. We’re even bowling alone. More Americans are bowling than ever before, but they are not bowling in leagues. Putnam shows how changes in work, family structure, age, suburban life, television, computers, women’s roles and other factors have contributed to this decline.

The central premise of social capital is that social networks have value. Social capital refers to the collective value of all “social networks” [who people know] and the inclinations that arise from these networks to do things for each other [“norms of reciprocity”].

Social capital works through multiple channels:
– Information flows (e.g. learning about jobs, learning about candidates running for office, exchanging ideas at college, etc.) depend on social capital.
– Norms of reciprocity (mutual aid) rely on social networks. Bonding networks that connect folks who are similar sustain particularized (in-group) reciprocity. Bridging networks that connect individuals who are diverse sustain generalized reciprocity.
– Collective action depends upon social networks although collective action also can foster new networks.
– Broader identities and solidarity are encouraged by social networks that help translate an “I” mentality into a “we” mentality.

How does this matter? Here are some factoids from the Bowling Alone website, as trends over the past 25 years:

• Attending Club Meetings: 58% drop
• Family dinners: 43% drop
• Having friends over: 35% drop

Have anything to do with the hobby? Uh, have you been an officer in a local club or attended a meeting lately? Indeed, it does!

For the U.S., membership in the largest organization purporting to represent amateur radio exhibits a clear “bowling alone” pattern: there are more ham operators than ever but also a sharp and continuing decline in the American Radio Relay Leagues’ membership as expressed as market-share. See Figures 3 and 4 (see the footnote about latest provisional numbers). Looking only at ARRL membership numbers, for instance, would suggest that the hobby is not doing well. This would be a false reading of the actual strength of the hobby and the market it represents. While there has been a significant growth in the number of FCC-granted amateur licenses, the market share of the ARRL has dropped like a stone since the long-time executive leader Dave K1ZZ was named Chief Executive Officer. (These data do not include the past two years in which there is a significant additional drop in League membership after the controversial print QST cost increase.) Looking only at the market share of the ARRL alone would seriously under-estimate the strength of the market for commercial equipment and services to licensed ham operators. I’ll add that only listening to largely inactive repeaters is another brick in the “bowling alone” wall. Thus, the hobby is far more than ARRL membership or repeater use but these are clear indicants of the change afoot in the hobby itself.

[Author's note: the latest provisional membership number I've been given is 137,000, some 15,000 of which are international members. These charts have been updated in recent articles on this blog.]

Any objective reading of the public sphere of ham radio would suggest that at times the League itself represents a dumpster fire of poor organizational performance (just peruse the voluminous posts in various Forums at QRZ.com). (Note: I am a Life Member and an Assistant Director under two Delta Division Directors.) But what is behind this decline in market-share? Could it be the decline in social capital in general, but exacerbated in the hobby by ineffective League operations? This factor affects local, regional and national clubs, too. Here are some thoughts about it and they complement my recent article which goes deeper into the organizational issues.

More Americans are bowling than ever before, but they are not bowling in leagues. There are more licensed hams than ever before but so few of them are members of another league: the ARRL, National Association for Amateur Radio.

Frank M. Howell, PhD K4FMH

The long time question of ARRL’s lack of transparency, except to “insiders,” contributes a restricted information flow about the hobby. From the Headquarters outward, I liken this communication style to a general message of: We are the ARRL…and You’re Not. It reduces social bonds with the League and shuts off bridges that build consensus toward collective action. The MyARRL Voice organization is a direct repercussion of this abrasive communication style by League headquarters.

This stance by leadership and some staff reduces norms of reciprocity, such as when the League calls on members (and non-members at times) for assistance. It reduces the capability in the hobby of effective collective action towards any change heralded as positive by large groups of amateur operators. Examples: when dues are raised and publication prices are changed; for lobbying activities; for recruitment; and other key social actions. The lack of mutual aid in the form of bonding networks (the lack of actually facilitating hams with similar interests in formal ARRL activities) or bridging networks (those who volunteer but are routinely ignored because they are not “known” by HQ staff or have criticized the ARRL in the past). The lack of women or persons of color in many groups is a reflection of this lack of bridging networks to bring them into the information flow that feeds the collective culture of the hobby.

The OMIK organization is an historical example of an independent group formed when active bridging networks by the ARRL could have supplanted the need for it. From the OMIK website, the organization’s own story:

The OMIK Amateur Radio Association, Inc. was founded on August 17, 1952, as the OMIK Electronic Communications Association by Black amateur radio operators from the states of Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, and Kentucky to deal with discrimination in the dominant culture and to assist Black travelers with information on places where they could safely eat and lodge. Many ham organizations denied membership to Blacks. Therefore, black amateur radio operators needed a Black Amateur Radio organization with its own nets and other activities.

There are many examples of the lack of both bonding and bridging networks created by the ARRL, whose official description is: “the national association for amateur radio, connecting hams around the U.S. with news, information and resources.” The ARRL is the only organization that claims to represent all of amateur radio in the U.S. (Note that it largely controls the IARU so there is also an international influence by the League.) AMSAT, an international organization, suffers from similar organizational effectiveness issues here in the U.S. (internal strife that often spills over into the public sphere). There are others but these two suffice to illustrate my point.

Clearly, social capital in the hobby is at a low ebb, with the group claiming to represent the hobby at large being a critical actor in this decline. 

Clearly, social capital in the hobby is at a low ebb, with the group claiming to represent the hobby at large being a critical actor in this decline. For a national non-profit with a paid staff who relies heavily on unpaid volunteers, these actions reducing social capital appear to be related to their market share decline. As Putnam described in his highly praised work, the decline of social capital reflects an important social change. But not “death” of the hobby itself.

To further illustrate how the view of U.S. amateur radio as “dying” continues to be perpetuated, we consider who dominates the hobby. By this, I mean who has power to influence what goes on, what major decisions are made, and how are federal regulations that proscribe the hobby’s being shaped? Is any “change” readily confused with a sign of “death” because it is different from this dominant group’s preferences? I wrote earlier about the “secret storm” approaching amateur radio contesting in the U.S., a sign of a cultural change riding alongside the generational demographic shift in the decline of Baby Boomers. If a dominant group is aging out, then that view carries significant weight in perceptions. Let’s try to describe who they are.

The population comparisons for current ham operators and national organizational membership does, in fact, show this Baby Boomer dominance in League membership. We do not know the age of licensees themselves, only those who hold membership in the ARRL. We do know age patterns of licensees in the UK, courtesy of Ofcom. This age pattern is present in both the US and in the United Kingdom. See Figure 5. Membership in the ARRL has been concentrated in age groups over age 50. Most of the leadership falls into this age group as well. This presents another element giving credence to the personal windshields of hams who fill in the blanks when relevant data are not publicly available. The League’s resistance to release any data that they may have to the public merely exacerbates this dependence on merely personal observations alone.

To examine those who are in key positions to influence the League’s actions, consider two elements. Both are available in the Annual Reports of the ARRL. 2022 is the most recent report available on the ARRL.org website, although 2023 has been released during the writing of this article. One, look at the picture of the Board of Directors and other officers (see page 21). Based on subjective appearances, there appear to be very few under age 50. Only three who present themselves pictorially as women. Only one is a person of color and she is no longer a Board member. Two, the major donors are in the Maxim Society Donors group (see page 23). These individuals, couples or organizations have given $10,000 or more over their lifetime. I have not tried to identify the ages of these individuals. A best guess is that the vast majority of the individuals or couples are also over age 50. But I could be wrong. It is safe to say that members of the Baby Boomer (or perhaps Greatest) generation(s) have more political clout in League matters than any other group.

With Baby Boomer dominance in the League, and likely in local clubs and other positions of power, viewing the changes associated with age tend to be interpreted as “death” rather than simply social change. The organization and ways of doing things (culture) is slipping away in noticeable ways. While we need to know much more about the spatial demography of amateur licensees, this pattern itself suggests that what we see in society overall, we see in ham radio. In other words, the dominant group’s view is proffered to be the correct one. At least, in the group promoting itself as the national association for the hobby in the U.S.

But, not so fast! Let’s further examine strategic activity spaces where this decline is already appearing in the hobby. Activity spaces are the concept that describes the collective actions of routine behavior that effectively define the fabric of the hobby itself. Contesting is one specialized activity that is prevalent by Board of Director members and Maxim Society donors. Individual contest (and DX) clubs can be major political actors with donations and other means to sway the ARRL. Changes there could be a canary in the coal mine of cultural change in the hobby. Changing generational demographics is a pressure toward change in the hobby’s organization and market segmentation, but not necessarily death. It just seems like it to those whose activity space is changing out from under them.

Baby Boomers have an expected 10-15 years left in the hobby as of this writing. The participation by hams in contesting illustrates this pattern. See Figure 7 for where the past two decades of contest participants are located, near most population centers in the U.S. and Canada. Based on 20 years of ARRL Sweepstakes data on individual participants (log-submitters), the map below tends to follow the license distribution across North America.

The results are not positive for typical CW contest participants, perhaps the most traditional activity space in the hobby. There are about 10-15 years left in the viability of this market segment.

Using these data on individual participants in the ARRL Sweepstakes Contests, I’ve estimated their age-based mortality schedule. The results are not positive for typical CW contest participants, perhaps the most traditional activity space in the hobby. There are about 10-15 years left in the viability of this market segment. Participants in the elite ARRL contests exhibit a decided pattern toward nearing their end of life or departure from the market due to infirmities. See Figures 8 and 9. The red line in these graphs are the average age at death for members of that birth cohort. About one half live less with the remainder living beyond this age. The aging pattern—the caterpillar’s hump—is moving past the benchmark of 65 in each subpanel. This is moreso for CW operators than phone. In Figure 9, the expected years until Silent Key status demonstrates the “secret storm” of CW operators substantially declining in the near future.

This is a signal event in this cultural change. It is one that the QST Editor declined to publish for it presented a “too negative of a tone,” although there were no technical limitations to the study. This intentional lack of transparency in objective research using the ARRL’s own data further degrades the social capital in the hobby.

Phone operators, while aging, are where newcomers to this ARRL Contest are entering. Thus, the importance of CW operators in the hobby, to the extent that this pattern generalizes to other contests, will shift toward phone operators. This is a signal event in this cultural change. It is one that the QST Editor declined to publish for it presented a “too negative of a tone,” although there were no technical limitations to the study. This intentional lack of transparency in objective research using the ARRL’s own data further degrades the social capital in the hobby.

The knee-jerk response to this “demography is destiny” impression is to chase children as the recruitment answer. This is because the origins of the hobby itself was based almost wholly on young teens and adults (see Howell, “Amateur Radio’s Lost Tribe: The ‘Blue-Collar Scholars’ Who Started It All.” The Spectrum Monitor, February 2022; available at FoxMikeHotel.com). Many Boomers got involved as teens but many of them did not. (For evidence on this from a national survey of Canadian hams, see this article.) The fastest growing segment of amateurs is comprised of “late-in-life” hams. See Figure 10. While ham licenses grow about 1+ percent per year, However, growth in the “late-in-life” ham category (those who are at least 50 years of age but only licensed 10 years or less) was an annual 2.5 percent.  (see Howell 2013). Late-in-life hams have several very desirable market aspects: peak earnings, empty nest (fewer household obligations), and disposable income. Thus, chasing children is not the only marketing strategy for amateur radio as a hobby and the Boomer segment should not be written off for well over a decade. (Note that Boomers also have grandchildren.)

Late-in-life hams have several very desirable market aspects: peak earnings, empty nest (fewer household obligations), and disposable income. Thus, chasing children is not the only marketing strategy for amateur radio as a hobby and the Boomer segment should not be written off for well over a decade.

Changing Organization Due to Demographic Shifts

As noted above, the emergent market for amateur radio lies in HOW ham radio’s activity space is changing. In social science, the activity space designates the “set of places individuals encounter as a result of their routine activities in everyday life.” (see Cagney et al.) Hams writ large do not consider how much the technology is driven by the organization of activities. Ever wonder why one’s CQ call is not answered even though propagation conditions are good? Contests are perhaps the purest example, containing dates, times, frequencies, and rules of competition. EmComm via ARES is another example with rule books, exams, meetings, and random meetings during times of emergencies. Satellite communications depend on the relative passing of particular satellites over locations on the Earth. There are others but the “activity space” concept is a central one to the hobby of amateur radio, much more than is formally recognized in ham radio publications and books. Getting an answer to one’s call of CQ is very different when there is a contest on the calendar, regardless of the propagation conditions.

Hams writ large do not consider how much the technology is driven by the organization of activities. Ever wonder why one’s CQ call is not answered even though propagation conditions are good? Contests are perhaps the purest example, containing dates, times, frequencies, and rules of competition.

For amateur radio, the highest status activity has been “contesting” and “DX chasing.” Compare the publication and website space devoted to these two activities, a sign of status-allocation. The ARRL and numerous other groups organize competition—which are part of a purported “radio sport”— where operators compete for the most contacts. Certain contacts with other participants are worth more than others with elaborate rule-sets for scoring. These are contests. Chasing DX (distant stations) is hunting but for stations in geographic locations that are challenging to contact (not unlike some fishing competitions, for instance). This activity space has been the dominant high-status arena in the hobby for decades, generating its own label of the “contesting mafia.”

Consequently, wealthy hams have spent upwards of $1M or more to guarantee their success through the construction of “super stations” and very elite teams of contesters. Or, send expeditions to faraway places to get on the air so that DXers can try to contact them and therefore “work” the rare location. These activities tend to cost increasing amounts, much more than most hams spend in their career on personal equipment. But as the technology required for being successful to accrue to status symbols of winning major contests has made it possible for fewer hams to accrue these status symbols, it has made it especially difficult for those who are members of younger generations to compete on any type of equal footing. Contest organizers have tried to “handicap” this structural inequality through classes of competition so as to maintain participation levels. But, contesters also know which porch the Big Dog sits upon. Just listen. You’ll hear them barking.

The Cheese Has Moved

Migration and housing patterns have land-use restrictions constraining traditional “high status” activities (e.g., contesting and DXing) requiring towers, high RF power, space, and time to operate. Because of the relatively small number of relatively well-to-do amateur operators who can build (or get access to) super stations, there has been a radical shift in activity space from high-cost, relaxed land-use restrictions, to portable, QRP, and modest satellite operations. These can be conducted in backyard patios, nearby parks, and in temporary vacation or other locations without many issues if the activity space to support them is organized. This organization is fundamentally no different from contesting or DXpeditions.

The cheese in ham radio’s activity spaces has moved intergenerationally…

The activity space of operating in parks began in 2016, by the ARRL I hasten to add, and has continued with phenomenal growth by a third-party after the League washed it’s hands of the NPOTA activity sponsorship. As of June 2019, “parks on the air” (POTA) operators had recorded more than 538,000 contacts. Started by a small group of U.S. volunteers in 2016, POTA now boasts 1,500-plus registered users and has continued to grow at an unprecedented rate. Why? Because it is an activity space in which any licensed ham operator can succeed.

A second activity space that is rapidly growing is satellite communications. The AMSAT organization says that there are at least 20 satellites in orbit that facilitate amateur radio communication. Almost all US astronauts on the International Space Station are licensed hams, since it is a “social media” for them during their off-times which in space. In 2019, there were over 130,000 members of the AMSAT organization. (I am an AMSAT Life Member.) The growth in satellite use by hams is a second activity space that is seeing increased market focus by manufacturers and hobbyists. Why? Because a wide variety of amateurs can participate successfully in working Sats!

Using data from a national survey of Canadian hams by the Radio Amateurs of Canada, Figures 11 and 12 illustrate this path of how the “cheese” has moved generationally in certain patterns of activities. We do not have similar data for the U.S. Canadian Boomers are more frequently using traditional activities while younger hams engage in new ones. This does not directly represent “death” of the hobby that Baby Boomers practice but the emergence of the operational style that younger hams enjoy.

As a youngster in the 1960s, I vividly recall the AM operators on 75 meter phone grousing about the “mush mouths” using the new-fangled SSB. Many AM ops didn’t have a BFO on their receivers; hence, the name. What’s the latest canary in the coal mine?

The explosion of computer-assisted digital data modes may well be a similar social change rather than “death” of the hobby. As noted in my full survey report and in a previous article on this blog, contesting in Canada ranks 15th whereas portable operating is 9th in a list of activities pursued in a given month. Interested readers can see where CW operating ranks in this list. The results are not inconsistent at all in the ARRL Sweepstakes results that Dr. Scott Wright and I obtained. They are prescient indicators of cultural change on the back of demographic shifts but had “too negative of a tone” to warrant publication in the flagship magazine of the League, QST (also noted above). Somehow, an ostrich comes to mind here.

These are behavioral measures of age-graded (and generational) change in how the hobby is being pursued. Boomer hams are following traditional activity space activities while younger amateurs are helping define newer activity spaces. Boomers see death while hobbyists of a younger generation see excitement in different modes of operating. This is change afoot rather than death-and-dying as perceived by those with the most tenure and influence in the hobby.

Boomers see death while hobbyists of a younger generation see excitement in different modes of operating. This is change afoot rather than death-and-dying as perceived by those with the most tenure and influence in the hobby.

Market Presence of Monetized Youtube Channels Focusing on Amateur Radio

If the hobby were dying, would there be an online monetized media segment developing around it? Would some hams claim that this is their sole source of earnings? Not likely. Certainly, those hams do not see evidence of the hobby’s passing. Rather, it is a new, innovative venue for the creation of entertainment content for the ham community and the commercial sector, the latter of which often invests donated equipment for review to these hams. A sampling of popular video channels on Youtube reveals that younger content creators are surpassing the estimated subscriber base versus those in the Boomer generation. See Figure 13.

Two of the most popular channels produced by members of the Baby Boom generation — Jim Heath W6LG and Dave Casler (who is a contract employee of the ARRL) — have subscriber levels and views much lower than many younger content creators. Two of the largest ones, Ham Radio Crash Course at 300,000 subscribers and Ham Radio 2.0 at 153,000, far exceed those produced by Boomer-age creators. The largest one is mostly technically-oriented: Mr. Carlson’s Lab at 371,000 subscribers. (One can debate my allocating him to the “young” group.) These revenue data are estimates and are used for illustration. The fact that the revenue numbers are estimates based on the source’s use of the Youtube algorithm for monetization does not change this group’s presence in making money off of content creation in the hobby. The monetized Youtube arena demonstrates a clear and strong presence that is a more effective way to reach younger amateur radio operators and those who wish to become licensed than print media like QST and the recently defunct CQ Magazine. It seems to be growing whereas print media is not. It would be inconsistent with a hobby space that is in the throes of imminent demise.

General Public Interest in Amateur Radio

What is the interest by the general public in amateur radio? Would a substantial decline in measure of this interest suggest the demise of ham radio? Possibly. But amateur radio has long been out of the public’s eye except during widespread emergencies. Nonetheless, examining these patterns would be useful for any dramatic patterns in this aspect of the health of the hobby. I use a form of Google’s search engine to examine amateur radio’s search patterns.

The trend in Google Searches for the term “amateur radio” (see Figure 14) currently remains fairly flat and not in decline, once the period post-Hurricane Katrina is ignored. The decline from the period beginning in 2004 arises from the central role that amateur radio played in the emergency response operations involving Hurricane Katrina and the high level of news media coverage of those activities.

The relative number of searches—a common mode for determining general public interest in a topic—has remained fairly flat since 2009, a sign that there is no reduction in general interest by the public in amateur radio. Thus, while this form of measured public interest among Internet users does not show an increase in information-seeking over time, it does not show much of a decrease either.

Conclusions on death-and-dying and living all at the same time

How is it that the hobby can be dying and living all at the same time? Schrodinger’s cat may be in the box but there’s a simpler explanation.

Baby boomers have dominated the amateur radio hobby for some decades now, obtaining positions of power in the major organizing associations, the ARRL, AMSAT, and others. The death-and-dying view of the hobby is rooted well within this dominant generation. The definition-of-the-situation, as the social psychologist W.I. Thomas famously said, is real in it’s consequences if men define them as real. Boomers have largely been the group defining the hobby for a long time. From their personal windshields, this is what they see. But it appears largely incorrect today.

We have shown that there is no empirical evidence that the amateur radio in the U.S. is dying. Far from ceasing to exist, the hobby is merely changing, and in line to change significantly over the next decade or so. These changes will cause the market to realign to new elements of activity emphasis and new activity spaces while some traditional practices in the hobby may well fade away.

The often-heard claim that any organized activity is dying is usually a sign that it is merely changing in significant ways that do not fit the definitions promoted by power brokers whose voice defines the situation. The scheduled exit of the Baby Boomer generation gives this appearance because members of this generation are in the positions of power and control in the organized aspects of the hobby. See the Board of Directors for the American Radio Relay League or the AMSAT organization as examples. Younger generation ham operators participate in the hobby differently and are engaging in a break from the activity spaces ensconced in the hands of Baby Boomers. For instance, the new World Radio League and its associated learning company, HamRadioPrep.com, tell me that they have a tremendous youth market for both companies. It is largely in the approach to the youth market. The market for amateur radio products and services is far from being in rapid decline. Astute targeted marketing using data such as these presented here, as well as new professional data collections, can guide the production and profitable sales regimes through the next several decades.

This has consequences in the hobby in several ways. More rancor and conflict, clearly present on certain common websites and social media groups, and dramatic losses in paid membership in the ARRL are two of them. One can see in the common watering-holes that post-Boomer hams and Boomers frequent are largely segregated into difference locations. The age-graded patterns of operator behavior, coupled with a serious lack of younger operators joining the gray beards in the League, is the instrumental canary in the coal mine of this generational shift. The institutional decline in Boomer-dominated groups will foster change at a faster rate.

This means that major manufacturers and resellers of gear for the amateur radio hobby will undergo some repositioning of products. For instance, take a look at the past five or so years in products for portable operating. It is substantial, fostering the emergence of many cottage industries of small portable radios and accessories specifically designed for outdoor operating. The rise of the premium transceiver has focused on the market segment willing to spend several thousands of dollars for a prized, well-featured transceiver. As the Baby Boomer market declines, this market segment may well change, too.

Should the number of FCC granted amateur licenses go into significant decline, would that then mean the hobby is dying? Was it viewed as dying some 20-30 years ago when there were far fewer hams? From the 1970s onward, the number of licenses grow at a fast pace (see table from the Clear Sky Institute above). Should they plateau to the population adoption rates of, say, 1980, that would not mean death of the hobby. It would mean change and perhaps in ways that younger amateurs would see as positive and beneficial. (“OK, Boomer. Time to move over…”)

Perhaps ham operators should recognize that their personal windshields are comfortable and useful but not very good for grand generalizations like the hobby is dying. Yes, an activity space that is well known as “hamfests” are attended mostly by Baby Boomers. Some will die off due to both lack of attendance, sales by vendors who do not get their needed return-on-investment for attending, the aging of hams who organize and operate them, and fewer in the market to go to them. Some already have. Hanging out on Discord servers, Youtube interactions, Zoom group gatherings, and online ordering will likely replace them as well as make them not “periodic” but in near real-time. Print media will evaporate due to cost, storage and lack of interest but interactive digital media will offer more and better information to readers. Remember those aggravating “mush-mouth” SSB operators? They rule today. Who will define-the-situation tomorrow?

There was a time that the American Radio Relay League was the dominant organizer of amateur radio in the United States. In fact, at their 50th Anniversary, the ARRL General Manager John Huntoon made this statement:

“In May, 1914, a small band of radio amateurs led by the late Hiram Percy Maxim, of [Maxim] Silencer fame, and Clarence Tuska, started a national organization and named it the American Radio Relay League. Since that time the story of amateur radio has been the history of the League, the chronicle of amateurs working together for the public welfare and for their common good.” (Huntoon 1965).

John Huntoon. 1965. “Forward.” Fifty Years of ARRL. Newington, Connecticut: American Radio Relay League.

They may still be as this is written. But with the dramatic and continuing drop in market share in the League’s membership over the past decade, corresponding to when the long-time administrator at ARRL Headquarters David Sumner was named Chief Executive Officer, coupled with the palpable and escalating displeasure of a significant majority of licensed amateurs with the National Association, it is hardly the case that the modern story of ham radio in the U.S. solely belongs to the League’s public relations department. This decline also contributes to the Baby Boomer impression of the hobby’s death: wasn’t it largely invented by Maxim and the League in Newington, CT?

Indeed, as I documented in my 2021 article, “Amateur Radio’s Lost Tribe,” it was Clarence Tuska who actually taught the “novice class” Hiram Maxim and his son about the wireless (for an audio version of my article, listen to Episode 363 of the ICQ Podcast). Tuska did it with the parts purchased from Hugo Gernsback’s Electro Imports company in New York City. But the League has no coverage of the first person, Hugo Gernsback, to nationally organize operating wireless enthusiasts in these United States in any of their publications, for it diminishes their claims that amateur radio is what they say it is. This precipitous decline in market share is coupled with the current ARRL CEO’s claim that there are only about 250,000 “active” U.S. hams so their 175,000 137,000 or so members contain the vast majority of them. The Emperor’s Clothes could well be vanishing.

This is change afoot, not the hobby’s demise, for that history will be written by the generations coming after the Baby Boomers. That may not involve the American Radio Relay League.

Progress involves change. Those vested in the status quo rarely see these changes as progress but death. It rarely is. I can find no evidence that ham radio is dying. So, I will return to the beginning.

Amateur radio is not:

• at the point of death
• in a dying state
• close to collapse
• ceasing to exist, function, or be in use
• in a final, concluding, or closing state

The change is largely institutional. There are more activity spaces in the hobby now, organized outside the auspices of the ARRL, leading to other groups shaping and defining what the “history” of amateur radio will be in the future. The demographic decline in the Baby Boomer generation will fuel this transfer of stakeholdership from the National Association for Amateur Radio to a number of others. The emergence of so many cottage companies who offer exciting products into the market is likely to grow. The largest manufacturers may well continue their success but in the market segment who will invest thousands of dollars into equipment that they are able to fit into their residential constraints. This is change afoot, not the hobby’s demise, that that history will be written by the generations coming after the Baby Boomers.

The only thing that would mean the death of the hobby of amateur radio would be if Congress and the FCC abolished the legal service.

Results from the RAC Survey 2021 and Statistics Canada

One of the pressing issues facing all amateur radio organizations in the modern world is what appears to be a rapidly aging set of participants. We mostly base this belief on various observations at in-person amateur radio activities since licensing bodies rarely ever collect or release birth dates with their license data. (Not all release actual license records themselves.) The issue is whether we are simply seeing ham operators who participate in these venue events or is the ham population actually aging as much as our eyes tell us? I present national data on the aging patterns of Canadian amateurs in addition to projections for the future. The results are sobering for they are predicated on a clear demographic pattern in the developed world itself.

From every data source that I have seen or analyzed, the population of amateur radio licensees worldwide is substantially graying.¹ RAC Survey 2021 respondents were asked what is your age group and given a choice of mostly decade-length age ranges. The 2021 Census of Canada age-by-year data were extracted from Statistics Canada and collapsed to fit the same age ranges (see Final Report). These data are presented in a population pyramid in Figure 1. The Canadian population (left) and RAC Survey 2021 of amateurs (right) add a further confirmation of this aging amateur radio population. Ham operators in the survey are far below the population at less than age fifty but increasingly over the population distribution after the half-century mark. In the sixties and above, amateur operator percentages are over double that of the population at large.

What does this population distribution comparison mean for amateur radio in Canada? There are at least two elements to the demographic equation here. If we think of amateur radio as a behavior, a hobby or a pastime that occurs over the life course of individuals, then the behavior of being a ham operator may be age-related regardless of the historical period.² Or, alternatively, it could be an historical period behavior that is prominent during an age range (or birth cohort) of one or more adjacent periods in history. In simpler terms, is amateur radio mostly a Baby Boom-era hobby that is scheduled to recede into a much smaller pursuit? There are many behaviors that do largely fade away as the participants age through other stages of life. Some, however, begin at later stages without younger groups joining the activity until they reach that age range. I will show evidence of both through my analysis of this national Canadian survey.

This life course perspective recognizes the effects on hobby behavior that are frequently revealed by hams themselves: work, marriage, family formation, competing interests, and others. Additional investigations with relevant data are required to answer these questions. But one aspect that is critical involves the future Canadian population itself. How is it scheduled to age over the next several decades? This will indeed shape the hobby in significant ways, given current circumstances in the hobby.

Statistics Canada has published age-specific population projections for the nation. These have been used to prepare Figure 2 with various projection scenarios (left) and age-specific projections from 2021 to 2050 (right). As is common, the “medium growth” scenario was selected to present the scheduled growth of age groups. Shown in the purple line (left), this set of assumptions for population growth fall in the middle of those with high-growth or slow-aging models versus low-growth or fast-aging parameters. They are generally the most reliable to use for analyses such as this.

The results in the right panel for each age group that were configured to match the RAC Survey age groups tell us that the population in Canada will grow in the middle-age categories and in the most senior ones. Those in the twenties through fifties will top the age pyramid by 2050, followed by those most senior residents in their seventies and over. The youngest population of teens (10 through 19) will be far smaller. This is a significant signal to policy-makers in Canada with two clear implications for amateur radio in Canada.

One is that the age groups of 60-80 years of age, now dominating amateur radio as the RAC Survey suggests, will simply disappear as they age-out to infirmity or becoming Silent Keys. Yet, the projected number of persons in these age groups are scheduled to actually grow in number over the forecast period.

A second implication is that teens will be a relatively scarce recruitment commodity in terms of the age pyramid. There will simply not be enough of them to replace those Baby Boomers now dominating the hobby. The much higher rates for the recruitment of younger people are significantly higher than has been the case in the recent past. Compare Figure 1 Canadian population versus estimated amateur radio population for these age groups to also see this imbalance as follows. The ratio of the population percent to the amateur operator percent tells us what recruitment improvement would be necessary to actually fit the population.

To aid in illustrating what the demographic patterns for the Canadian age structure mean for amateur radio, consider what rates of “recruitment” would be necessary to simply replace the current share of licensed hams by age group. I’ve summarized a simple table (Table 1) of this “additional recruitment success” that would be needed to just maintain what we have today in Canada for those below age 50.

While it would only take recruiting 1.5 times the current number in the age 40 range, it becomes increasing more challenging as each age group gets younger. For those in their thirties, when typical family obligations are most demanding, it would require 4.6 times the current number to be recruited base on the future population projections for this age segment. The dramatically higher rates are for those in their twenties (16.7 times) and teens (20 times) make it simply unfeasible to realistically believe that current methods of age-specific recruitment will come close to securing these levels of required newcomes into the hobby. To repeat, in practical terms, there simply will not be enough members of these youngest cohorts to replace their current age segment even if all parties went into recruitment modes with their “hair on fire”.

Demography can be destiny. But it does not have to be so.

Understanding Ham “Careers” and Recruitment into the Hobby

While the population demography reflects a challenge for the future of amateur radio in Canada, it is important to more fully understand how the hobby is pursued over the ham’s “career” as a licensed amateur operator. There is a notion, perhaps rooted in the Baby Boomer and preceding generations, harkening back to the emergence of amateur radio itself, that young people get exposed to amateur radio, get licensed and continue their amateur radio careers in a continuous fashion. (For more and an empirical investigation, see Howell 2021) This would make the teen years the principal period in the life course for recruitment into the hobby. In the survey, however, there is only modest evidence of this pattern.

RAC Survey 2021 participants were asked how many years they had held a license as well as have been active in the hobby. The graphic in Figure 3 displays histograms of the frequency of hams in each year bin. On the left is length of holding a license (tenure). The right panel is the same display except for years of activity. The average years of license tenure is about 26 while 22 is the average of years active. The variation in each measure is about the same, a standard deviation of around 17-18 years. The experience levels among Canadian amateurs are lengthy but it is also quite variable.

There are two things to hold out as important from this graphic. One is that survey responses bunch around newcomers (or zero to 4 years) or 25-30 years of holding a license. Activity is about the same pattern except the bunching of respondents is not as pronounced as license tenure. The “careers” of activity in amateur radio tend to vary quite a bit. A second is that these two variables are not linked to the same amateur. How many have activity periods that last for most of their license tenure? What lengths of active periods characterize Canadian hams?

Hams who are in the most senior age groups report years of license tenure suggesting that the teen years were when they became licensed. Moreover, a large number of them say they have been “active” all of their licensed years.³ This notion, however, does not fit many respondents in the survey. The latter are large enough to beg the question of how valid is this traditional idea with which we often characterize all amateurs. Like many stereotypes, there are significant popular examples that fit but it also mischaracterizes a larger share of ham operators.

We have visualized this linkage through a scatterplot of ham radio activity by license tenure with age groups identified (see Figure 4). A scatter plot is an X-Y plotting of individual data points along the data values of each variable. The age group for each survey respondent is shown by a distinct color.

There are no respondents above the line in this plot since activity is predicated in this survey upon holding a license. The diagonal line of hams reflects those who have been active their entire careers in ham radio. Only among those in the most senior age groups (e.g., 70 and over) supports the commonly held pattern of getting licensed at a teen or young adult and staying the course. There are many of these amateurs but they are far from being the dominant group.

The large number of data points moving away from this diagonal (toward the lower right) reflect hams who got licensed and have not been “active” nearly as long as those on the straight diagonal line. The most senior groups reveal many who were not licensed early in their lives but significantly later. Thus, these data illustrate that our conventional image of the amateur who gets licensed early in life and maintains that hobby activity throughout is largely a stereotype that nevertheless fits a smaller share of the population. These patterns of activity are directly pertinent to policies for recruitment into the hobby. They illustrate clearly the significant market for late-in-life hams. See Howell (2013) for another U.S. survey with data on late-in-life ham operators.

To further illustrate inactivity over the ham’s career, Figure 5 uses box plots of the simple difference between years licensed and years of activity (i.e., years licensed – years active). It’s broken out by age group. Box plots show the data around the center point of the median at the middle of the box. In this case, zero provides a bounding so that there is only one end of the distribution of survey respondents.

These data are highly skewed toward higher periods of less activity (“inactivity”). The median lines in the boxes are barely visible. There is a trail of hams who report a growing gap of inactivity as age increases. Some get licensed but drop out of the hobby, at least for some periods of time. For example, for the most senior group, some have been licensed-but-inactive for 40 or more years. Over their license tenure, a significant group of hams fall away from practicing the hobby.⁴ This licensed but inactive segment represents a ripe market for recruitment back into amateur radio activities. I will note in passing that we do not have any consensus for what “active” in the hobby means.

Conclusions

These results describe an emerging demographic shift in Canada that will affect the amateur radio hobby.  There will simply not be enough younger people to replace those Baby Boomers now dominating the hobby. But what is the fundamental reason behind these population projections leading to fewer younger people in the decades ahead? It is now something unique to Canada but common to all developed countries. In Figure 6, I’ve reproduced a graph showing the total fertility rate (TFR) over time among a number of countries. This was recently published in the highly respected demography journal, The Lancet. The gray line at the fertility rate of 2.1 is the replacement level for a given population. High income countries include Canada, the U.S. and the UK, among others. They have been below replacement level since around 1980. Thus, the issue of why official Canadian population projections show that younger age groups will be diminished in the near term is due to this falling total fertility rate among high income countries around the world.

Returning to the issue of these demographic patterns for amateur radio, the rates for the recruitment of younger people to achieve mere replacement are significantly higher than has been the case in the recent past. This should not be misconstrued to suggest that it would be a waste of time to expose young people to amateur radio as a recruitment method. It may well be an incubator effect of planting the seed that will be sown later in the life course. The short-term efforts should not ignore middle-age prospects for the hobby. They have three key characteristics that make them prime targets for marketing. One, they tend to be “empty nesters” without dependent children. Two, they are at or near their peak-earning years with perhaps the highest discretionary income they will ever have. Three, they have more time on their hands for the pursuit of hobbies. The demographic fact is that there will also be more of them in the near term for effective recruitment into the hobby.

These results encourage strategic and efficient methods for RAC and its membership clubs and associated organizations to reach both the youth population as well as later-in-life adults. Demography does not have to be destiny if these actions are taken soon. But it will be if heads are placed solidly into the sand.

Notes

1.For other data on the aging ham operator population in the United States and the United Kingdom, see https://k4fmh.com/2021/08/28/the-secret-storm-approaching-cw-contesting/ or https://k4fmh.com/2021/03/31/uk-regulator-ofcom-releases-ham-licenses-by-age-compares-favorably-with-us-estimates/.

2.The “life course” is the routine and mostly orderly progression of the transition of individuals among various recognized stages of life. The broadest definition is “The entirety of individual’s life from birth to death and the typical set of circumstances an individual experiences in a given society as they age.” (Source: https://sociologydictionary.org/life-course/).

3.This question wording leaves the definition of activity up to the respondent. I’ve asked many hams what being “active” in the hobby means. I received a wide-ranging variety of responses that do not identify a singular coherent defining concept.

4.In analysis not shown, there is virtually no distinction in reported inactivity during the amateur career and current RAC membership. We cannot determine whether past membership patterns is linked to periods of inactivity during the full period of license tenure.

References

Frank M. Howell. 2013. “Survey of Members 2013.” ARRL Delta Division Report. Online resource: http://arrldelta.org/dd-final13.pdf.

Frank M. Howell. 2021. “The lost Tribe, the Pied Piper and the Executive.” The Spectrum Monitor October, 7-12. Available for download as a PDF here.

Frank M. Howell and Scott Wright. 2021. https://foxmikehotel.com/aging-and-radio-contesting/

As a small child, my grandmother and mother both watched several “soap operas,” including the Secret Storm. The opening of Secret Storm showed violent waves crashing on the shoals, something I’d never seen being raised in Middle Georgia. My grandmother especially used to flinch and react to the plot-line drama there, something that I took note of even if to laugh to myself as a small boy.

The underlying theme was there was undetected turbulence in the offing, denied by those benefiting from things staying put as they are and have been. But all were impacted none the less when the waves of change ultimately pounded the rocks where many sailors during the great sailing days of yore and asleep at the wheel ran aground .

The Secret Storm has been one of my go-to metaphors for periods of rapid change. This is where social institutions are altered because of changing demographics among the individuals who participate in the organizations making up the institution itself. This is certainly one of those times in amateur radio!

A demographic storm is approaching CW contesting in the ARRL Sweepstakes Contests.

It may be a rapid change in all CW and Phone contests. Those in power in the institution don’t see the coming storm of demography because it’s slow-acting…until it’s not…and more immediate fish are there to fry. One can see “secret storms” in various times and places. Some get attention. Others do not.

But this “storm” is largely secret for at least two reasons. Until this path-breaking study of the best available data, no one has reported on the generational patterns of major contest participation. Many hams have speculated on it but there has been no systematic empirical data until now. Another is that those who are the most successful in today’s contest formats, as well as those who govern them, tend to take a blind-eye toward anything negative or indicative of change to the “only positive contesting spoken here” ideology. Read the relevant amateur radio magazines objectively for the evidence.

But the facts describing this demographic storm are undeniable. Here is why.

The problem and the solutions are challenging but the latter is more so because it takes group decision-making in opposition to vested interests to make it happen.

Frank K4FMH

This post excerpts from the full technical version of a study that I completed in collaboration with Dr. Scott Wright K0MD, past Editor of the ARRL’s National Contesting Journal. Scott is the lead author on a popular article drawn from this study that appears in the September-October 2021 issue of the NCJ. It does not go into great detail on the data or analysis but as a social scientist, I believe that a full exposure of methods, data and analysis is always warranted. A PDF version of that report is published on NCJWeb.com as well as on my companion website under my Hamography (made-up word) section in the Studies tab.

The paper, “Generational Change in ARRL Contesting: The Pending Demographic Cliff Ahead,” by Frank Howell, PhD K4FMH and Scott Wright, MD K0MD is the first study (of which we are aware) that has measures of the age of contesters for a broad period of time in a major contest program. Moreover, the year licensed is used to measure the experience in amateur radio based upon license tenure. Georeferencing each call sign to the administrative location places each one in a geographic context which further illustrates who, when and where ARRL Sweepstakes participants are.

The radio sport of contesting is one of the top activities for ham operators [1]. The annual ARRL
Sweepstakes contests in CW and Phone have broad appeal as contests and the numbers of participants
has been increasing each year. Clearly, from an engagement viewpoint, it is one of the great success
stories of the League. So, why are there hams within our fold who express concern about the potential
for declining participation in contests like Sweepstakes? Why are there some alarmists among us who
believe ham radio contesting may face a cliff with regard to drop-offs in participation? We hope this
article will answer those concerns and clarify opportunities for the contesting community to “right the
ship before it takes on too much water,” so to speak. The problem and the solutions are challenging but the latter is more so because it takes group decision-making in opposition to vested interests to make it happen.

Our analysis is based upon entries into the ARRL Sweepstakes contest, a popular contest among ham
radio hobbyists in North America. The ARRL made available to us the participant entry data from the
years 2000, 2005, 2011, 2015 and 2020 for a series of analyses designed to create opportunities for the
contesting community to grow the ranks of contesters.

We discovered that Sweepstakes participants over the past two decades were from all over the world
but mainly in the United States with a much smaller number from Canada. Figure 1 is a map of CW
and Phone participants for the years 2000, 2005, 2011, 2015 and 2020 all combined within each
transmission mode. [2] They are concentrated around metropolitan areas but especially in the
Northeastern corridor, the West Coast, the Midwestern Rust Belt cities, and Florida. The Los Angeles,
San Francisco and Seattle areas tend to be concentration zones as well as Chicago, Minneapolis and
Detroit in the Midwest. The spatial patterns for CW and Phone participation are very similar with some
tendency for CW participants to be in more rural areas. So Sweepstakes participants tend to be like
most Americans, residing most in and around large cities with some outside of those metropolitan
areas. That’s great, right?

As the well-known sports announcer, Lee Corso, says: not so fast! The demographic processes shaping Sweepstakes participation, and perhaps most all long-standing contests, portend the potential for dramatic change to come in the next decade or so.

Frank K4FMH

We report the first results of a new study of Sweepstakes log submissions over the 2000-2020 period with age-matched data from ARRL Membership files and other enhancements by the authors. Using a number of data analytic procedures, we identify key generational changes in contest participation patterns that have not been previously identified. They paint a concerning picture for the attraction of new blood into the radio sport of
contesting. But first, let’s look at Sweepstakes participation itself for the past 20 years.

The growth in contest participants seems very clear from the numbers that the League compiles from
the log submissions. Figure 2 lists numbers of logs successfully submitted by year and mode. From
each five-year gap, the rates are positive and robust. For CW, the annualized growth rates of growth are
from about 4-5 percent over each gap while Phone’s annual rates of growth range from 4-7 percent,
with more participation in Phone sweepstakes from both absolute participation numbers and percentage
growth. These are positive but modest growth rates.

These results clearly suggest that the Sweepstakes participation is growing and includes hams from all around the U.S. and a noteworthy number outside the country, especially in nearby Canada. But like the sailor who ignores the dark clouds in the distance, there is a demographic storm on the horizon.

Frank K4FMH

Generational Patterns of Participation in the Sweepstakes Contests

The ARRL kindly provided birth year for all of the call signs in the Sweepstakes Contests data where age information was available. [3] We used this information in our enhanced dataset to examine the age distributions for each year and also added actuarial life expectancy data from the U.S. Social Security Administration to each birth year (see Note 5 below). This gives us a unique perspective on not only the age patterns of these contesting hams but their likely remaining years until reaching Silent Key status. Each log call sign was also georeferenced to license address.

Some age demography theory here is necessary for interpreting the results. If the age structure of contest participation is such that new hams are being regularly drawn into the radio sport in sufficient numbers to replace those aging hams who exit, the shape of the distribution from 2000 until 2020 would remain almost identical. That is, amateurs from more recent generations would enter as older participants become physically or mentally unable to engage in the necessary “butt in chair” activities for major contests, or have relocated their housing into situations where participation in radio contesting is not possible. However, if the age distribution continues to shift upward from 2000 until 2020, then newer generation newcomers are not keeping up in replacing with those from earlier periods who are eventually leaving the contesting scene. Or, it could be a mixture of these two opposing scenarios. The empirical answer from these data is surprisingly clear.

We present a histogram of the age distribution for Sweepstakes participants in each observed contest
year by mode in Figure 3. The median age over all contests and modes is 60 years. We insert this
median into each distribution to give a fixed target through which to visualize trends in the respective
age distributions over time. The results are striking, especially for CW participants. The bulk of the age
distribution lies to the left (younger) side of the median in 2000 for each contest mode. But with each
successive five-year snapshot, it moves like a caterpillar’s crawl to the right (older) of the age 60
median. It reached a tipping point in 2011 with the middle bulk of participants being around the age of
60. By 2020, a clear majority of participants are above the median bar (older) but slightly more so for
CW participants.

This picture suggests that the needed demographic replacement is not occurring as the Sweepstakes contesting participant pool is aging to the point where we need to examine carefully what is the demographic profile of newcomers and those exiting. Moreover, what is the life expectancy of those continuing to participate in the ARRL’s premier contesting program? We step through results addressing these issues from this dataset.

This picture suggests that the needed demographic replacement is not occurring as the Sweepstakes contesting participant pool is aging to the point where we need to examine carefully what is the demographic profile of newcomers and those exiting.

Frank K4FMH

Some key indicators of demographic change are in Figure 4. The row labeled Continuation is the percent of call signs from the previous year (e.g., 2000) that matched the call sign logs submitted in the next contest observation (e.g., 2005). This tells us which individual call signs continue from five-year observation to the next observed contest. Only a third to a half of the call signs in a given year appear again in the next contest some five years later. This applies to both CW and Phone contests. However, the Phone contest continuation percentages are systematically smaller, never reaching 50 percent. It’s clear that readers should recognize that Sweepstakes participants, especially those in Phone, are not the same operators but they do tend to reflect the same generation, collectively moving in some lock-step through the past two decades of the Sweepstakes. This suggests that Sweepstakes contesting is culturally rooted to one or more generations rather than a single collectivity of specific hams.

This suggests that Sweepstakes contesting is culturally rooted to one or more generations rather than a single collectivity of specific hams.

Frank K4FMH

The average age has moved upward over the past two decades some 15 years from 51 to 67 among CW contesters. Phone participants are slightly younger on average but they too have moved from 50 to 64 over this twenty-year period. Now a key element of this demographic mix is the age at licensure, created from the “check year” field in the required Sweepstakes log compared to the birth year. Phone participants tended to be licensed in their mid-twenties while CW contesters were in their late teens. These are averages, of course, and vary somewhat. We include the standard deviation under the mean score to better illustrate this variation. But this aids in our understanding of the tenure of being licensed. Participants in the CW Contest over the years have been licensed longer than similar Phone participants. They are culturally rooted in the era of amateur radio where they entered the hobby at a young age and may indeed reflect an earlier generation of ham radio in cultural beliefs about the hobby. In both cases, the vast preponderance of participating hams (88.9%) was born in the Traditionalist (pre-1945) or Baby Boomer (1945-1964) generations.

Demographic Sources of Newcomers and Exits from Contesting

Having described the dominant generational character of Sweepstakes participants, we remind the reader that these are not the same set of individual hams to participate year-in and year-out (e.g., 50% or less continuity). But what age demography are those who enter contesting? When did newcomers become licensed? How about those who get enthusiastic about amateur radio later in life? These factors are what will drive contesting into the future over the next 10-15 years. They are the drivers of the demographic storm brewing, especially for CW contesting, and will continue to significantly shape the size and nature of contesting. 

To address these questions, we enhance the Sweepstakes dataset to compute measures of exits and newcomers into each five-year observation window. Because it can be complicated to just describe this data creation in just words, we rely on the diagram in Figure 5. From left-to-right, the years of data we obtained from the ARRL represent whether a specific call sign was in a contest for that year or not. [4] If a call was in 2000, for instance, and it was not in 2005, then we count that as an exit case for the 2000-2005 interval. If that call was also in 2005, then we consider that a continuation (as shown in Figure 2). If a call was not in 2000 but was in 2005, then we consider that a newcomer. These were computed separately for the CW and Phone Contests. We also recognize that we are not able to link call signs used in each contest to previously used call signs so this aspect of our analysis is a weakness.

But taking into account that we do not have each and every single year’s log data, this method could have a call sign that was in 2000-2004 but just missed 2005 and still be counted as an exit. The same thing could conversely be the case for newcomer. But to counteract this random absence case, we computed long-term exits and entrants. As the red box on the left designates, if a call sign was in either 2000 or 2005 but was not in any of the remaining contest files, we counted that as a long-term exit. Accordingly, if a call sign was in 2015 or 2020 but not an any previous contests, we count that as a long-term newcomer. These may be more reliable but longer-term indicators of the ebb-and-flow of Sweepstakes Contest participation than the 5-year measurements.

The short-term exits for CW and Phone are shown in Figure 6. There is a greater exodus during the 2000 to 2011 decade and is dominated by the Traditionalists and Baby Boomer generations. Some exits are prominent by Generation X members during the second decade of observation. Note that the number of those leaving this contest program declines over time, suggesting that it may indeed be age-related health issues rather than changes in interest. While exits exacerbate the generational problem, Figure 7 contains data on newcomers, where replenishment of those leaving may be found. But here is what may be a surprising result. Newcomers tend not to come from later generations but from the wellspring of the Baby Boomers and their preceding generation. And while this is true for both contest modes, there is a nominally greater increase of Generation Xers and some token Millennials arriving in the Phone contest logs in the last five years. This trend is a potential strategy for the contesting community to grow participation in sweepstakes especially via the Phone contest.

The long-term exits and newcomers are described in Figure 8. In the CW Contest, long-term entrants are almost wholly from the Baby Boomer generation. While the small presence of other generations is observed, they pale by comparison to both long-term newcomers and exits by this generation.

Another potential source of new blood into radio sport are what the first author termed, “late-in-life hams,” in his NCJ article series on Aging and Contesting. These are middle-aged adults who become licensed and engage in the hobby. Using the definition cited in the NCJ articles (see note 1), we computed late-in-life-hams using the age variable as license age being 40 or above. Out of the 12,663 logs with matched age data, a total of 1,655 (13%) were classified as late-in-life hams. While this is a small number in absolute terms, to what extent do they represent newcomers to the Sweepstakes? Figure 9 provides an answer.

The bar chart shows that there is an increasing number of hams licensed later in life joining each contest year. Well over 100 were present in each year since 2000 in the Phone Sweepstakes but less for CW. This is a clear differential in late-in-life hams favoring Phone over CW. In the past decade, this difference has become larger with over 250 such hams taking up Sweepstakes Phone entry as compared to no more than 100 in CW. Thus, late-comers to ham radio and Sweepstakes contest participation migrate to Phone much more than CW. These observations suggest that the phone Sweepstakes are a perfect entry way into HF contesting for newer licensees who want to try contesting by participating in a domestic event that fosters success with modest antennas (wires, verticals) and lower power (100 watts). It is an opportunity for all contesting clubs to find and invite such newer licensees to join Sweepstakes 2021 and beyond to experience the thrill and passion of HF contesting. This suggestion is made even more crucial to long-term contesting sustainability given the next trend we uncovered.

…late-comers to ham radio and Sweepstakes contest participation migrate to Phone much more than CW.

Frank K4FMH

Life Expectancy and the Demographics Facing Sweepstakes

Our final analysis involves the estimated life expectancy of Sweepstakes participants, using the U.S. Social Security Administration’s actuarial data for average predicted remaining life by age. [5] Some basic explanations of these data are warranted before proceeding. The predicted remaining life is the average and there is variation around that mean score (standard deviation is thought to be between 8 and 15 years, depending upon the time period referenced. See Note 5.). So, these are population characteristics and individuals (hams) will vary on length of time with regard to becoming Silent Key around this average score. Regardless, taken in aggregate, these projections are likely critical for understanding the cliff that HF contesting is about to experience.

If we think of the expected remaining years of life at a given age as a battery where “years of life” is a charge, we can examine patterns of life expectancy as being above or below the expected “charge” until reaching depletion (Silent Key status), whether SK status reflects relocation to a living situation where operations cannot occur or ultimately through death of a given individual. The presented data will underestimate the age when physical or mental infirmity precludes active contesting. We constructed a set of histograms similar to the age distribution by year and contest mode (Figure 3). Instead of age, we substituted remaining life expectancy computed as the difference of life expectancy and age. Instead of the median life expectancy, we inserted a vertical line at zero which reflects the average remaining life expected, trading on the remaining battery charge metaphor. Figure 10 contains graphic representation for each Sweepstakes year and contest mode.

…future participation in the CW Sweepstakes would fade out within a decade or two based upon these data unless younger hams enter the CW sector of radio sport.

Frank K4FMH

The positive results are that all but one time-to-expected-SK status is on the right side of zero (or positive). If newcomers to the Sweepstakes contest program averaged the age distribution in this participation pool, there would be a supply “re-charge” (replenishment of SK contesters with newer contesters with life expectancies of several decades) that would sustain it for over two decades or so. The clear and dramatic exception is in the CW contest where fully one-half of the 2020 participants have used half of their expected remaining time until SK status. This does not take into account physical or mental impairments that would take hams out of the contesting participation pool. Thus, future participation in the CW Sweepstakes would fade out within a decade or two based upon these data unless younger hams enter the CW sector of radio sport.

What Do These Results Mean for the Sweepstakes and Other Contests?

The current participation numbers for the Sweepstakes contests look good, even promising future extended growth, if we only take the raw counts of submitted logs into consideration. This is exciting for those of us who are long-term contesters as well as the ARRL contest itself. However, there is more to what we have observed. The loss rate of contesters leaving the ARRL Sweepstakes contest is high and reflects the aging demographics of our hobby, as well as the lack of adequate replenishment of newer, younger contesters.

The current participation numbers for the Sweepstakes contests look good, even promising future extended growth, if we only take the raw counts of submitted logs into consideration…Because of these demographic patterns, it appears to be a culturally-situated issue riding a demographic storm…it is not too late to reverse these trends and interrupt the aging-related decline that is happening…

Frank K4FMH

Because of these demographic patterns, it appears to be a culturally-situated issue riding a demographic storm. If it were just promoting the Sweepstakes contests to other age groups, the activity would be attractive by itself. However, note the maximum continuity rates never reaching more than 50 percent across each five-year period. Yet, it was almost one-half of the second year’s participants that were also from the Baby Boomer (or perhaps Traditionalists) generation, not Gen-Xers or Millennials. Certainly not Post-Millennials which could be counted on two hands. This is strong evidence that Sweepstakes contesting as we know it is a cultural practice that appeals to those born before 1965 and, while nominally growing among Gen-Xers, does not attract younger participants thus far.

That said, we also recognize that it is not too late to reverse these trends and interrupt the aging-related decline that is happening in contesting and that will soon result in dramatic reductions in numbers of participants. Sweepstakes, especially Phone Sweepstakes, attracts new participants from among those recently licensed, regardless of their generational age. Growth in Sweepstakes is not occurring from a new hobbyist “teenage” demographic, which is how many of us entered ham radio. There are plenty of data describing how ham radio does not have the same allure today as it did in the 1950’s-1970’s. We cannot undo cultural trends and changes in new technology. We can however create new marketing/recruitment strategies to welcome adults of all ages into the hobby, and to encourage them to give contesting a try. Phone Sweepstakes is one such ‘gateway’ to contesting it seems. The data already point to that, and it is an observation that suggests ways for the contest clubs throughout North America to target and draw in new participants.

Our data analysis reveals several indisputable facts. First, Sweepstakes participation remains popular despite the folklore that it is not growing, although that annual growth is small. Second, the participants in Sweepstakes are typically experienced ham operators who have been licensed for many decades. Third, the number of younger generation hams (under age 40) has not contributed to any measurable change in Sweepstakes participation. Fourth, there are newer licensees (not necessarily younger in age) who are participating in Sweepstakes and largely contributing to its growth. Fifth, Sweepstakes has ‘curb appeal’ to newer licensees, especially Phone Sweepstakes.

These observations suggest several pathways forward to sustain contesting, enrich the hobby and replace our senior contesters who are becoming SK’s.

Contesters and contesting clubs can create new marketing/recruitment strategies to welcome adults of all ages into the hobby, and to encourage them to give contesting a try. Phone Sweepstakes is one such ‘gateway’ to contesting. Contest sponsors, like the ARRL, can ensure that any changes in the rules of Sweepstakes should reflect changes that encourage rather than discourage new participants. The ARRL might consider creating some awards which target exclusively newer entrants into Sweepstakes, like a ‘rookie category’ but without the culturally offensive stigma of calling a middle-aged adult a ‘rookie’. (We suggest using Newcomer instead.) The Contest Advisory Committee may want to critically evaluate the Sweepstakes data and offer additional innovative ways to attract more participants.

Finally, these data suggest that there are plenty of new hams in the hobby but not enough contesters. Local, regional and national contest clubs must re-evaluate outreach strategies and meeting formats to attract, mentor and retain new contesters within our ranks. Individual contesters can also contribute to contest growth. We can dispel the popular myth that a successful contest station requires multiple towers, Yagi stacks, vertical arrays and teams of operators. There is a role for these sophisticated, team-based contesters. They often lead through innovation and performance, stimulating the rest of us to pick it up a notch or two. But there are plenty of ways that individual contesters can enjoy the hobby and be successful, whether through modest stations at their home, through mobile contesting or even portable activities like the SOTA, POTA, the Portable Operations Challenge and others.

The first author has published an exposition of the first Fox Mike Hotel Portable Operations Challenge in the September-October issue of the National Contesting Journal. An international Steering Committee leads this effort to offer a clear and distinctive change in amateur radio sport, from focusing on gear to competitive strategy to win without segregating participants into ever-smaller categories of contestants..

We can dispel the popular myth that a successful contest station requires multiple towers, Yagi stacks, vertical arrays and teams of operators.

Scott K0MD

It is also important to acknowledge the impact the housing transitions from a home without antenna restrictions to a property with severe restrictions is likely impacting participation, especially later in life for those who wish to continue as contesters. It is imperative that we acknowledge this reality and work to create opportunities to contest via remote stations or through shared club stations, such as exists in The Villages in central Florida. The ham radio hobby has always been about innovation and response to challenges. The challenges we face in contesting are no different. The demographic “cliff” we observe and describe with contesting need not be a self-fulfilling prophecy. But it will take the social capital of making collective decisions for the betterment of the social good to make this happen.

‘the ability of people to work together for common purposes in groups and organizations…Social capital can be defined simply as the existence of a certain set of informal values or norms shared among members of a group that permit cooperation among them’

Francis Fukuyama (1995) Trust : the social virtues and the creation of prosperity.

The first author gave an analysis of the dire need for “social capital” on the part of ARRL and other contesting organizations in his first Social Circuits column, “Lemmings Over a Demographic Cliff? Tradition and Change Are Terrible Bedfellows.” The following excerpt quotation from the ending adequately summarizes the policy issues that this path-breaking study of the generational change in ARRL Sweepstakes Contesting data identifies (emphasis is new):

It is often attributed to the social thinker August Comte to have said, Demography is Destiny. But it does not have to be so. It does require taking the blinders off of tradition and evaluate it for what it is today and what it means for the future. This almost always requires those in power to make such decisions to forsake their own vested interests in favor of change. Like the famous Lemmings advertisement by Apple, not everyone has to walk off this demographic cliff. We just have to take the blinders of tradition off our eyes, wake up, act for the common good, and smell the demographic coffee. Because it’s brewing…

Frank K4FMH

So the secret storm on the horizon of the next 10–15 years in contesting is not longer so secret. No action may be taken by relevant leaders but that’s up to readers to insist that progressive acts be initiated to attract younger and late-in-life amateur radio operators to different types of contesting than the style in place for several decades. What will you do to ensure that this happens?

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Notes:

1. Frank M. Howell. “Aging and Radiosport — Part 1” National Contest Journal, July/August, pp. 3-8.

2. With the approval of ARRL CEO David Minster NA2AA, these data were kindly supplied by Bart Jahnke, Radio Sport and Field Services Manager, at ARRL Headquarters. He handled follow-up questions in a very timely manner and our thanks are expressed here.

3. A total of 12,873 birth years were supplied for the 15,390 logs sent to us by the ARRL. This resulted in 2,517 (or 16.4%) not having age data. We examined patterns of missing age data against several key variables that are independent of age: US call vs international, year of contest, absence of year contests by mode, mode over all years, state location, precedent category, long-term exits and entries, and total number of CW and Phone contests. All except long-term phone entry were statistically significant. But examining the cross-tabulations, the percent difference in any category was about 5 percent of the cases. We do not see these differences as substantially reducing our ability to generalize age patterns to the full Sweepstakes dataset used in this study.

4. We recognize that call signs can and do change. While georeferencing each log record, we took note of this potential by examining the log entity (person, club, etc.). It did not appear to be very prevalent enough to warrant concern by us.

5. See https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html. We used these data to construct expectated (mean) life span and compared it to current age in the contest year to compute remaining life expectancy. Our narrative discusses the standard deviation around this average life expectancy. See, for instance, this article by Edwards at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3285408/ which suggests that 15 years is a good approximation. Others, such as Hennington (https://www.actuaries.digital/2020/08/12/standard-deviation-around-life-expectancy-is-eight-years-what-this-means-for-retirees/) suggest that 8 years is a better current estimate.

In response to a Freedom of Information Act, the United Kingdom amateur radio license regulator, Ofcom, has released counts of ham licenses by age group (see here). The ICQ Podcast covered this story in this week’s episode. They are simple counts but I’ve taken them and added UK population data for comparison. Using a graph from my recent NCJ article on aging in American radiosport, I also make general comparisons to the US ham population. How does the UK compare to the US in terms of the age distribution relative to the overall population? Are hams becoming more elderly? Is there an influx of younger people into amateur radio in these two countries? The results are concerning to anyone interested in the long term viability of amateur radio in either country.

The bar chart shows the three UK license classes—Foundation, Intermediate, and Full—with the corresponding total UK population by age group. These categories are what the Ofcom report contains so I was unable to reconfigure it for other groupings. The purple total population bar in comparison to any of the ham licenses illustrates the “aging” of the British ham population. This is especially the cast for Full licenses. As the age group enters mid-life (post-50), the imbalance becomes clear and gets more imbalanced as age increases.

The second bar chart is from my NCJ article on US hams. The ARRL membership data are proxies for the US FCC ULS license database. (The FCC stopped collecting birth year some decade or so ago.) The tan bar is the total population from the Census Bureau. The green bar is from an ARRL survey of current and previous NCJ subscribers and are a proxy for contest participants.

Clearly, the US amateur radio population compares favorably with those in the UK as represented in the Ofcom data release. There may be a slightly more aging pattern in the US data. It’s the post-60 year old category where the ham population surpasses the comparable share of the total population. As noted in my NCJ article, the contesting data show that this group is even more elderly than hams in general.

Ofcom is an evidence-based regulator, so market research is important to us. Many of our decisions are informed by research evidence, and our market research ensures that we have a thorough, robust and up-to-date understanding of consumers in the UK.

Source: https://www.ofcom.org.uk/research-and-data/about-ofcoms-research

These data released by Ofcom show a revealing, but not entirely surprising, picture of the amateur population in the United Kingdom. Most would agree that they “see” hams at rallys and elsewhere and most “look older” than “younger.” In these data, there are younger hams in the data but they are indeed smaller in number and share. But until we have actual data on all licensed hams (and even the Ofcom release warns about their under-coverage), it’s like building the proverbial dinosaur from some bones discovered in an archaeological dig from one site. We also do not know about how many “late-in-life” hams will emerge during their mid to later years (see here for survey estimates). By inference, the hypothesis that amateur radio is a cultural phenomenon mostly engaged in members of the the Western “Baby Boom” (see here) is not inconsistent with these data. Until we have data where longitudinal and age-cohort variables are measured will we even begin to be able to move beyond the ubiquitous: “well, the blokes at the rally…” or “in my club, I’m the youngest and I’m 50 years old”. Those comments may indeed be characteristics of the full ham population, but we simply do not know this for sure or with any precision.

Even though Ofcom says it’s an evidence-based regulator, until more data like this is released and analyzed, we won’t be able to really get a handle on social change in the hobby and public serve of ham radio. Age and cohort comparisons (e.g., Glenn, Cohort Analysis) are the standard to measure change like this. In the US, the FCC isn’t even in the ball game. Sad.