It was an honor to be asked by Nathaniel N2AF to kick-off this year’s series of online talks last week. We are kicking-off another football season so I actually got to play in this one! There were 60 or more in online attendance and several who sent in notes that they couldn’t make it but wanted the link to the video. And…great, great questions from the audience!
Seminar: Revolutionary Alternatives in Sunspot Prediction
Thursday, August 18, 2022 – 23:45
Thursday, August 18, 2022 – 23:43
Submitted 2 weeks 3 days ago by w2naf.
Dr. Frank Howell K4FMH will present a seminar based on his two-part article in the July & August 2022 issues of the Radio Society of Great Britain’s RadCom journal, written with Dr. Scott McIntosh of NCAR in Colorado, titled, “On the Cusp of a Scientific Revolution?” The seminar includes the latest theory construction and model estimation. The seminar will be held on September 1, 2022 at 4 PM Eastern (2000z) during the weekly Solar Eclipse QSO Party Zoom Telecon. Frank is Professor Emeritus at Mississippi State University, Affiliated Faculty at Emory University, and a scientific member of HamSCI.
Abstract: Sunspots are the Dow Jones Industrial Index for hams. We are faithful to the sine wave model of the approximate 11-year cycle with the official NASA/NOAA predictions being our Holy Grail. I’ll address the following issues. How did we get to this sine wave conception? How do scientific paradigms compete and change? A new competing paradigm by the McIntosh team has been proposed. What’s new? What’s both the theoretical and empirical basis for this Kuhnian revolution in predictions? For Cycle 25, I’ll compare the official NASA/NOAA versus McIntosh team projections of SSNs and how they are constructed. I’ll also show how they compare to observed sunspots in the Cycle. Can we now better predict the underlying phenomena driving the amplitude and transition of a cycle? This model competition may well parallel the Newton-Einstein paradigm clash a century ago where science hung in the balance while solar eclipse photo plates were taken in Brazil and the Island of Principe. Now, we can follow along and see: will there be a scientific revolution in sunspot prediction?
Link to the Youtube video: