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Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Sep 10 0413 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 – 09 September 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels this period. Region 2721 (N10, L=286 class/area Bxo/010 on 09 Sep) emerged near center disk on 08 Sep. This small region exhibited slight growth early on 09 Sep, but was showing signs of decay as of this report and remained inactive.

On 09 Sep, a prominence eruption was observed off the SW limb, beginning at 09/0815 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 imagery and at 09/0824 UTC in 171 imagery. While this event appears to be directed well south and west of the Sun-Earth line, significant gaps in SOHO coronagraph imagery data made analysis nearly impossible.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reach high levels on 03 – 08 Sep, then decreased to moderate levels on 09 Sep. A peak flux of 12,435 pfu was observed on 03/2035 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels from 03 – 09 Sep, with an isolated period of active conditions on 05 Sep, likely due to a negative polarity coronal hole. Solar wind speeds began the period near 325 km/s, increased to over 500 km/s on 05 Sep and 07 Sep, and ended the period near 400 km/s. Total field strength averaged near 5 nT, and saw a peak of 11 nT on 07 Sep. The Bz component was variable through the period and saw a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 September – 06 October 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the outlook period, with a slight chance for C-class flare activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels through period. Moderate levels are expected from 10 – 12 Sep and again from 29 Sep – 06 Oct. High levels are expected from 13 – 28 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 10 Sep. Conditions are then likely reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 11 Sep due to a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are also likely on 12 Sep as CH HSS effects persist. Active levels are expected on 13, 14, and 22 Sep from the influence of recurrent CH HSSs. Field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Sep 03 0229 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 August – 02 September 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels. Both Regions 2719 (S07, L=131 class/area Cro/040 on 23 Aug) and 2720 (N08, L=136 class/area Dao/100 on 25 Aug) quietly rotated off the disk on 29 Aug as areas of plage. Region 2720 resided on the disk as a low latitude, reverse polarity group. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels on 28-29 Aug and at high levels on 27 Aug, 30-31 Aug and 01-02 Sep). A peak flux of 97,630 pfu was observed at 28/2145 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 27 Aug followed by unsettled to active levels on 28 Aug. Quiet levels persisted on 29 Aug – 02 Sep. The period began under the continued, but waning, effects from the 19 and 20 Aug CMEs. This was coupled with influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began the period near 550 km/s and gradually increased to a peak speed of 666 km/s observed at 17/1730 UTC. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/1607 UTC while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -6 nT at 27/1627 UTC.

By midday on 28 Aug, field activity declined to quiet levels and remained so through the end of the summary period. The IMF was at nominal levels while solar wind speed gradually decreased to near 340 km/s by the end of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 September – 29 September 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels through the outlook period. A slight chance for low levels is possible from 05-24 Sep with the return of old Regions 2718 (S07, L=191), 2719 (S07, L=131) and 2720 (N08, L=136).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 03-04 Sep, 13-20 Sep and 23-26 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 05-12 Sep, 21-22 Sep and 27-29 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 03 Sep due to effects from a SSBC. Unsettled to active levels are anticipated on 07-09 Sep, 11-17 Sep and 22-23 Sep with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels possible on 11 Sep, all due to CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Aug 27 0539 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 – 26 August 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels. Regions 2719 (S07, L=131, class/area Cro/040 on 23 Aug) and 2720 (N08, L=136, class/area Dao/100 on 25 Aug) developed on the solar disk on 18 Aug and 23 Aug respectively. Both regions were responsible for several low level B-class flares. The largest was a B4 flare at 25/1048 UTC from Region 2720. Other activity included two coronal mass ejections (CME) observed on 19 and 20 Aug. The first was a narrow CME off the SW limb at 19/0812 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. The CME originated from a filament eruption near S09W06 at 19/0542 UTC. The latter CME was caused by a filament eruption at approximately 20/1100 UTC from the NW quadrant. An associated faint partial halo CME was observed off the W/SW limb at 20/2136 UTC in C2 imagery. WSA/ENLIL modelling of the events showed only weak effects from possible glancing blows late on 21 Aug and late on 24 Aug.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels throughout the period. The largest flux of the period was 10,300 pfu observed at 21/2150 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels. The period began under the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds were elevated to near 670 km/s with total field initially at 12 nT on 20 Aug. By 21 Aug, solar wind speed was in decline while total field was at 5 nT or less. Solar wind slowly decreased over the next few days as nominal conditions were reached by 23 Aug. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 20 Aug, quiet to unsettled levels on 21-22 Aug and quiet levels on 23 Aug. By 24 Aug, a small discontinuity could be seen in the total field. A small increase to 7 nT was observed at 24/1116 UTC while the Bz component deflected southward to -6 nT, however the solar wind speed continued to decrease to near 325 km/s by the end of the day. As a result, quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 24 Aug. By 25 Aug, solar wind speed increased briefly to 460 km/s at 25/1305 UTC before declining once again, however total field began to increase beginning at 25/1210 UTC as effects from the 20 Aug CME were beginning. By 26 Aug, total field increased to 18 nT and remained there for approximately 12 hours. The Bz component was mostly negative reaching a maximum of -17 nT for approximately 24 hours beginning at 25/1600 UTC. Solar wind speed once again showed an increase at 26/0730 UTC from 370 km/s to near 550 km/s by the periods end as the solar wind stream was transitioning into a positive polarity CH HSS. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 25 Aug and unsettled to G3 (Strong) storm levels on 26 Aug.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 August – 22 September 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flare activity on 27-29 Aug and again on 11-22 Sep as Regions 2719 and 2720 return to the visible disk. Very low levels are expected for the rest of the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 27 Aug-03 Sep, 12-15 Sep, and again on 17-19 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 27-30 Aug, 01-02 Sep, 07 Sep, 11-17 Sep, and 22 Sep with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels expected early on 27 Aug due to CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Aug 20 0445 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 – 19 August 2018

Solar activity was very low. Two small regions developed on the visible disk this period. Region 2718 (S07, L=191, class/area Hrx/020 on 17 Aug) developed on 14 Aug and decayed to plage by 19 Aug. Region 2719 (S06, L=133, class/area Bxo/010 on 19 Aug) developed in the SE quadrant on 19 Aug. No significant flare events occurred from either region. Other activity included a filament eruption centered near S11W04 observed lifting off the solar disk at approximately 19/0538 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection was observed off the SW limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 19/0812 UTC. WSA/Enlil modelling of the event suggested the ejecta was primarily directed westward of the Sun-Earth line and is not expected to cause any significant effects.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 13-15 Aug, moderate levels on 16-17 Aug, and at high levels on 18-19 Aug. The largest flux of the period was 18,287 pfu observed at 19/1800 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels over the period. Solar wind speed was at nominal levels at the beginning of the period with solar wind speed ranging from 310-430 km/s while total field was between 1-4 nT. The geomagnetic field was quiet on 13-14 Aug. By 15 Aug, solar wind speed increased to approximately 450-500 km/s with total field increasing to a maximum of 14 nT by 16/1005 UTC as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moved into geoeffective position. A further increase in solar wind speed to near 570 km/s was observed late on 17 Aug before slowly receding to nominal levels by midday on 19 Aug. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 15-18 Aug. By late on 19 Aug, total field increase again to 12 nT along with an increase in solar wind to near 550 km/s as a negative polarity CH HSS was becoming geoeffective. However, only quiet levels were observed on 19 Aug.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 August – 15 September 2018

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 22-27 Aug and again on 13-15 Sep due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active levels on 20-25 Aug, 03-04 Sep, 07 Sep, and 11-15 Sep with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 20-21 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Aug 06 0236 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 July – 05 August 2018

Solar activity was very low throughout the period. Region 2717 (S08, L=027, class/area=Axx/10 on 02 Aug) was briefly the sole active region with sunspots, but was largely unproductive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed this period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 30 Jul, moderate levels on 31 Jul, and 01, 03-04 Aug. Normal levels were observed throughout the rest of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 31 Jul, and 01-03 Aug, with quiet conditions observed throughout the remainder of the period, under a nominal solar wind environment.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 August – 01 September 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 21-26 Aug. Moderate levels are expected on 06-11, 18-20, 27-31 Aug and 01 Sep. Normal levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 20 Aug due to the influence of a negative polarity, coronal hole high-speed stream. Active conditions are expected on 07-08, 17, and 20-21 Aug due to multiple, recurrent coronal hole high-speed streams. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Jul 30 0029 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 – 29 July 2018

Solar activity was very low throughout the week. No active regions with sunspots were observed this period and a single B1 flare at 29/2148 UTC, from an unnumbered region behind the eastern limb, was the only flare reported this week.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 25-29 Jul and moderate levels were observed on 23-24 Jul.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 24 Jul due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 25 Jul and generally quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 July – 25 August 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 30-31 Jul, and 21-25 Aug. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below event threshold throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 20 Aug and active levels are likely on 17 and 21 Aug, all due to the influences of multiple coronal hole high speed streams. Quiet or quiet to unsettled levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Jul 23 0031 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 – 22 July 2018

Solar activity was very low throughout the period. Region 2716 (N16, L=199, class/area=Axx/10 on 21 Jul) was briefly the sole active region with sunspots, but was largely unproductive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed this period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels on 22 Jul with normal levels observed through the rest of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 16-17, 20-21 Jul with generally quiet conditions observed throughout the remainder of the period. The activity on 20-21 Jul was associated with the weak influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 July – 18 August 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 23-31 Jul and moderate levels are expected on 01-11, and 18 Aug. Normal levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 24 Jul due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Active conditions are expected on 23, 25 Jul and 17 Aug due to the influence of multiple, recurrent coronal hole high speed streams. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..