Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Jul 04 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2016 Jul 04 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jul 04 0322 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 June – 03 July 2016

Solar activity was very low. The disk was spotless for the entire period with no measurable flare activity.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 27-30 Jun and dropped to normal to moderate levels for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 27-28 Jun due to diminishing negative polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions were observed on 29 Jun. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed for the remainder of the week with an isolated active period on 02/2100-2400 UTC due to effects from a series of coronal holes.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 July – 30 July 2016

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 04-07, 16-19, and 22-26 Jul following recurrent CH HSS events.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels early on 04 Jul followed by quiet conditions through 07 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return from 08-15 Jul with active periods likely on 11-12 Jul due to effects from a series of recurrent coronal holes. Quiet conditions are expected to return from 16-18 Jul. Another recurrent CH HSS is expected to cause quiet to unsettled conditions from 19-23 Jul with isolated active periods likely on 19 Jul. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the period with unsettled periods possible on 28 and 30 Jul due to recurrent coronal holes.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Jun 27 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2016 Jun 27 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jun 27 0346 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 – 26 June 2016

Solar activity was very low during the entire summary period with only B-class flare activity observed. No Earth-directed CMEs occurred.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 21-22 Jun and 25-26 Jun following coronal hole high speed stream events. Normal to moderate levels were observed on the remaining days.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 20-21 Jun. Mostly quiet conditions were observed early on 22 Jun but activity increased after 22/1800 UTC due to enhanced solar wind parameters and unsettled to minor storm levels were observed. Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods were observed on 23-24 Jun due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 25-26 Jun with an isolated period of active conditions observed from 26/2100-2400 UTC due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 June – 23 July 2016

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period with a slight chance for C-class activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 27 Jun to 01 Jul following CH HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 02-03 Jul as a CIR redistributes electrons. High levels are expected to return from 04-07 Jul following a recurrent CH HSS. Moderate levels are expected from 08-21 Jul followed by moderate to high levels on 22-23 Jul following another recurrent CH HSS.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to begin at unsettled to active levels but decrease to mostly quiet levels by midday on 27 Jun and remain quiet through 29 Jun. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 30 Jun to 05 Jul with isolated active conditions possible on 03 Jul due to a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are expected on 06 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 07-12 Jul with minor storms possible on 11 Jul and active periods likely on 12 Jul due to effects from a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return from 13-18 Jul with unsettled periods possible on 14-15 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 19-21 Jul due to negative polarity CH HSS effects with an isolated active period likely on 19 Jul. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Jun 20 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2016 Jun 20 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jun 20 0550 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 – 19 June 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels the majority of the period with low levels observed on 13 and 19 June due to a C3 flare at 13/0552 UTC from Region 2552 (N15, L=359, class/area Dao/150 on 11 June) and a C1 flare at 19/1158 UTC from Region 2558 (N13, L=215, class/area Cso/030 on 19 June). The majority of the B-class activity was caused by Region 2555 (S09, L=274, class/area Cao/080 on 17 June). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period and briefly reached high levels on 19 June with a maximum flux of 1,030 pfu at 19/1640 UTC.

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G2-Moderate storm levels. Solar wind conditions began the period under a waning positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds decreased from approximately 620 km/s to around 420 km/s by midday on 14 June. Total field decreased from 8 nT to 4 nT. By late on 14 June, total field increased to 15 nT with the Bz component mostly southward near -14 nT while solar wind increased to a maximum of 772 km/s at 15/0410 UTC, indicative of a co-rotating interaction region followed by another positive polarity CH HSS. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 13 June, quiet to G2-Moderate storm levels on 14 June and quiet to G1-Minor storm levels on 15 June. By early on 16 June, total field decreased to around 6 nT with solar wind speeds in the 500-600 km/s range. These conditions continued until 19 June when solar wind speeds decreased to nominal levels. Quiet conditions were observed on 16 and 19 June with quiet to unsettled levels on 17-18 June.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 June – 16 July 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 20-22 June, 26 June-01 July, 04-07 July and again on 16 July due to CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 23-27 June, 02-03 July, 07-12 July and 14-15 July. G1-Minor storm levels are likely on 02-03 July and 11 July due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Jun 13 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2016 Jun 13 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jun 13 0444 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 – 12 June 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels from 06-08 June and again on 10 June. Low levels were reached on 09 June and again from 11-12 June due to C-class flare activity from Region 2552 (N15, L=359, class/area Dao/150 on 11 June). The largest flare of the period was a C6 at 11/2228 UTC. Region 2552 grew rapidly since its emergence on 07 June to a compact beta-delta magnetic class, but appeared to be in decay by 11 Jun as it neared the NW limb. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 06 June and again from 11-12 June. High levels were reached from 07-10 June with a peak flux of 1,590 pfu observed at 10/1520 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2-Moderate geomagnetic storm levels during the period. The period began with solar wind speeds near 650 km/s and total field values near 7 nT while the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 6 nT under the slowly waning influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). As a result, mostly active levels and an isolated G2-Moderate storm period were observed during the first half of the UTC day on 06 June. Solar wind speeds continued to decrease to nominal levels by 10 June. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 07 June with quiet conditions on 08-09 June. By midday on 10 June, a solar sector boundary crossing was observed into a positive (away) sector followed by an increase in total field to 14 nT by late on 10 June. A lesser rise in solar wind speed to near 540 km/s was observed as a positive polarity CH HSS moved into a geoeffective position. Solar wind speeds continued to be elevated in the 450 km/s to 550 km/s range for the rest of the period with total field ranging between 7-10 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active periods on 10-11 June and quiet to unsettled levels on 12 June.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 June – 09 July 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 17-18 June, 26 June-01 July and 04-07 July in response to CH HSS activity.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 13, 15-17, 22-24, 26-27 June and from 02-03, 07-09 July with G1-Minor storming likely on 02-03 July due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Jun 06 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2016 Jun 06 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jun 06 0156 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 May – 05 June 2016

Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels. Low activity was observed on 30 May with a pair of C1/Sf flares observed from Region 2550 (N15, L=114, class/area Cro/020 on 31 May). Very low levels were observed on 31 May and 01-05 Jun. Of note, the first spotless day since 17 Jul 2014 was observed on 03 Jun.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 30 May – 04 Jun with moderate levels observed on 05 Jun.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels. Quiet to active levels were observed on 30-31 May due to negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. During this time frame, wind speeds peaked at about 575 km/s early on 30 May while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum southward of extent of -6 nT late on 31 May. Quiet conditions were observed on 01 Jun through midday on 05 Jun. Active to G1 storm levels were observed through the remainder of 05 Jun due to effects from another negative polarity CH HSS. Late on 05 Jun, wind speeds approached 650 km/s, total field reached 19 nT while the Bz component briefly hit a maximum southward extent of -15 nT.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 June – 02 July 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with C-class activity possible throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be reach high levels on 07-09, 12-16, 26-30 Jun and 01 Jul. Normal to moderate levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) levels on 06 Jun and 02 Jul with unsettled to active levels expected on 12-15, 17-18, 23-24 and 26-27 Jun, all due to the influence of multiple recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 May 30 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2016 May 30 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 May 30 0216 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 – 29 May 2016

Solar activity was very low on 23, 25, and 27-29 May with only background flare activity observed. Low levels of solar activity were observed on 24 May due to an isolated C1 flare from Region 2546 (S07, L=223, class/area=Cho/550 on 21 May) and on 26 May due to isolated C1 flares from Regions 2546 and 2548 (N13, L=171, class/area=Dsi/130 on 27 May). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the week.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 23 and 25-26 May and quiet to unsettled levels throughout the remainder of the period with an isolated period of active conditions observed on 28 May due to coronal hole high speed stream influence.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 May – 25 June 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with C-class flares possible throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 05-07 and 12-16 Jun with normal to moderate levels expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 30 May and 05 Jun and active conditions are expected on 31 May and 06, 11-13, 17 and 24 Jun, all due to the influence of multiple recurrent coronal hole high speed streams. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 May 23 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2016 May 23 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 May 23 0405 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 – 22 May 2016

Solar activity was low with only B-class and C-class flare activity observed. Regions 2544 (N20, L=295, class/area=Dai/160 on 16 May) and 2546 (S07, L=223, class/area=Cho/550 on 21 May) produced three low-level C-class flares between them, with the largest being a C1.8 at 16/1525 UTC from Region 2544. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed during the reporting period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However, there was a slight enhancement on 16 May from a long duration C3 flare that occured previous to the reporting period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached a maximum of 1 pfu at 16/0030 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 16, 17, and 19 May and moderate levels on 18, 20-22 May.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly at quiet to unsettled levels from 16-20 May with an isolated period of active conditions on 17 May in response to a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels were observed during the 0600-0900 UTC synoptic period on 21 May due to influences from another positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 May – 18 June 2016

Solar activity is expected to be very low (B-class flares) to low (C-class flares) levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 28-29 May, 01 Jun, 03-09 Jun, 12-13 Jun, and 18 Jun. Moderate flux levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 04 Jun and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 05 Jun due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Active geomagnetic levels are expected on 26 May, 30-31 May, 02-03 Jun, 06 Jun, 11-13 Jun, and 17-18 Jun due to various recurrent CH HSSs.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr


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