Weekly Propagation Summary – 2019 Jul 15 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Jul 15 0223 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 – 14 July 2019
Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the reporting period. Region 2744 (S27, Lo=209, class/area=Bxo/020 on 07 Jul) decayed to played by 08 Jul. A coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 193 beginning around 14/0030 UTC from near the vicinity of old Region 2744 (S27W46). A subsequent CME signature associated with the event was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 14//0236 UTC. The slow-moving, narrow and faint signature from the SW limb was modeled and the resulting WSA-Enlil output suggested no Earth-directed component was present.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels on 08-09 Jul. An increase to moderate to high levels, in response to activity from a negative polarity CH HSS, was observed on 10 Jul and persisted through 14 Jul.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. An abrupt enhancement from a possible transient was observed at 08/1829 UTC. Total field increase from 4 to 10 nT and solar wind speeds increased from 300 km/s to a brief peak of 400 km/s resulting in an isolated period of active conditions. Late on 09 Jul, the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS increased wind speeds to a peak of 663 km/s and total field to 13 nT. G1 storm conditions followed a period of sustained southward Bz with values reaching as far south as -11 nT at 09/1845 UTC. A final period of G1 storm conditions was observed early on 10 Jul as influence from the CH HSS persisted. Quiet to unsettled levels on 11 Jul transitioned to quiet through the end of the reporting period as the solar wind returned to nominal levels.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 July – 10 August 2019
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels over the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal background to high levels. High levels are expected from 15-18 Jul and 06-10 Aug; moderate levels are expected on 19-21 Jul; the remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at normal background levels. All enhancements in electron flux are expected due to the anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Active levels are expected on 15-16 Jul and 05-06 Aug; unsettled levels are expected on 17 Jul, 28 Jul, 04 Aug and 07 Aug; the remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels. All increases in geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
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