Weekly Propagation Summary – 2019 Aug 05 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Aug 05 0339 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 July – 04 August 2019
Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. Other activity included a filament eruption observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 04/1640 UTC in the NW quadrant. Analysis is on-going for any potential coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as coronagraph imagery becomes available.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal levels during the period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) beginning midday on 30 Jul. Total field increased to 11 nT by 30/2024 UTC while solar wind speed increased to a maximum of 596 km/s at 01/0503 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled periods on 30 Jul-01 Aug.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 August – 31 August 2019
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the forecast period (05-31 Aug).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate levels on 05 Aug and 18 Aug. High levels are expected on 06-17 Aug due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach unsettled to active levels on 05-08, 10-11, 17-18, 26-28, and 31 Aug with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 05-06 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
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