Weekly Propagation Summary – 2018 Jul 02 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Jul 02 0504 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 June – 01 July 2018
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2715 (N08, L=231, class/area Dao/070 on 23 Jun) was the only spotted region on the disk and was quiet throughout the summary period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period. A maximum flux of 5,570 pfu was observed at 28/1935 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to isolated G1 (Minor) storm periods from late on 25 Jun through 26 Jun in response to an SSBC from a positive to a negative sector observed midday on 25 Jun. A CIR signature was evident early on 26 Jun in advance of an equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS. Total field (Bt) peaked at 14 nT, the Bz component reached a maximum negative extent of -9 nT and wind speeds increased from about 400 km/s to about 670 km/s; all during 26 Jun. For the remainder of the summary period, field conditions were at quiet levels with an isolated unsettled interval late on 27 Jun. By the end of the summary period, Bt and Bz were at nominal levels while wind speeds decreased to near 350 km/s.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 July – 28 July 2018
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels through 10 Jul. With the return of old Region 2715 (N08, L=231) from 11-24 Jul, activity levels are expected to remain at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class activity. A return to very low levels is expected from 25-28 Jul.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 02-10 Jul and again on 21-28 Jul due to CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 11-20 Jul.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 15 Jul and 20-24 Jul with isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely on 23 Jul, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
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