Weekly Propagation Summary – 2018 Feb 19 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2018 Feb 19 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2018 Feb 19 0416 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 – 18 February 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels on 13-18 Feb and low levels on 12 Feb. The strongest flare of the period was a C1 from Region 2699 (S07, L=165, class/area Dai/240 on 10 Feb) at 12/0135 UTC. The event produced an associated asymmetric halo signature first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 12/0125 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested arrival of the CME at Earth on 15 Feb.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels 12-16 Feb. An increase to moderate levels on 17 Feb and to high levels on 18 Feb was observed in response influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Quiet conditions were observed on 12-14 Feb. On 15 Feb, arrival of the 12 Feb CME produced only one isolated period of active during the day. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 15 nT around 16/0530 UTC while Bz remained mostly positive. Solar wind speeds were relatively slow, between 300-400 km/s through the event. Active levels were reached again on 17 and 18 Feb in response to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds continued to increase over the two days to a peak of about 600 km/s late on 18 Feb.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 February – 17 March 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low through the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels from CH HSS influence are expected from 19-25 Feb. A transition back to normal levels is expected from 26 Feb to 17 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. Influence from a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to produce isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming on 19 Feb. A decrease to quiet to active levels by 20 Feb and quiet to unsettled levels over 21-23 Feb is expected as influence from the CH HSS slowly wanes. Quiet to unsettled levels are again expected on 04 Mar and 15 March, with quiet to active levels expected on 14 Mar and 16-17 Mar, as multiple, recurrent CH HSSs are anticipated to become geoeffective. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to observe quiet conditions.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: 1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US 2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

= = = = =

BOOK SALE: Space Weather and Sun Science – get these from Amazon, and help us stay online!

NOTICE: When you buy this (or any item after starting with this link), you are helping us keep our SunSpotWatch.com and other resources “on the air” (up and running!). In other words, you are helping the entire community. So, check out this book:

Here is the link to Amazon: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Visit, subscribe: NW7US Radio Communications and Propagation YouTube Channel

Leave a Comment

Subscribe FREE to AmateurRadio.com's
Amateur Radio Newsletter
News, Opinion, Giveaways & More!

Join over 7,000 subscribers!
We never share your e-mail address.

Also available via RSS feed, Twitter, and Facebook.

Subscribe FREE to AmateurRadio.com's
Amateur Radio Newsletter

We never share your e-mail address.

Do you like to write?
Interesting project to share?
Helpful tips and ideas for other hams?

Submit an article and we will review it for publication on AmateurRadio.com!

Have a ham radio product or service?
Consider advertising on our site.

Are you a reporter covering ham radio?
Find ham radio experts for your story.

How to Set Up a Ham Radio Blog
Get started in less than 15 minutes!

  • Matt W1MST, Managing Editor

Sign up for our free
Amateur Radio Newsletter

Enter your e-mail address: