Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Oct 17 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Oct 10 0105 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 – 09 October 2016
Solar activity was at very low levels with a few background flares observed from Regions 2598 (N14, L=174, class/area Dai/140 on 07 Oct), 2599 (S14, L=144, class/area Cko/460 on 05 Oct) and 2600 (N13, L=105, class/area Cso/110 on 09 Oct). On 08 Oct, between 08/1500-1700 UTC, a 10 degree long filament erupted in the NE quadrant centered near N38E40. A slow-moving, asymmetric, partial-halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery, first visible at 09/0048 UTC.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the entire summary period. A maximum of 32,138 pfu was observed at 03/1640 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was highlighted by mostly unsettled to active levels on 03-05 Oct. An isolated minor storm (G1-Minor) period was observed early on 04 Oct. Mostly quiet levels were observed from 04-09 Oct with isolated unsettled and active periods were observed early on 07 and 08 Oct, respectively. The enhanced geomagnetic activity was due to high speed winds from a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. Some further enhancement occurred early on 04 Oct due to CME effects from an eruptive filament observed early on 01 Oct.
The solar wind environment began the period at about 500 km/s, increased to near 600 km/s midday on 04 Oct and slowly decreased to end the period at about 370 km/s. Total field generally ranged from 2-6 nT with a peak of 10 nt observed midday on 04 Oct. The Bz component was mostly variable between +/- 6 nT. Phi angle was in a general positive orientation throughout the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 October – 05 November 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 10-11, 16-18, 24-26, 30-31 Oct and 01-06 Nov increasing to very high levels on 27-29 Oct. This is due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 11-18, 23-31 Oct and 01 Nov. G1 (Minor) field activity is possible on 13-15, 17 and 23-31 Oct with G2 (Moderate) levels possible on 24-26 Oct. This activity is due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Additional enhancement to the field is expected on 13-14 Oct due to CME effects from the 08 Oct filament eruption. Generally quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
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