Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Mar 28 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Mar 28 0122 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 – 27 March 2016
Solar activity was at predominately very low levels with an isolated C1 x-ray event observed on 23/0354 UTC from Region 2524 (N15, L=277, class/area Eho/340 on 19 Mar). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 23 March, high levels on 22 March and moderate levels on 21 and 24-27 March.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated active interval observed early on 23 March. The period began with quiet conditions, but increased to quiet to unsettled levels late on 21 March due to the onset of a weak, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Predominately quiet to unsettled conditions persisted through early on 24 March under the influence of the positive poarity CH HSS. Wind speeds averaged about 425 km/s through midday on 23 March. A gradual increase was then observed to a peak of near 565 km/s early on 25 March before decreasing to about 350 km/s late on 26 March. From 21-25 March, total field (Bt) ranged between 1-10 nT while the Bz component varied between +9 nT to -5 nT.
Quiet conditions persisted from late on the 25th through 26 March. Predominately unsettled levels were observed on 27 March due to the onset of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of another positive polarity CH HSS. On 27 March, wind speeds increased to near 440 km/s, Bt reached a maximum value of 12 nT while the Bz component rotated between +8 nT to -9 nT.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 March – 23 April 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares through the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels on 28 March and on 01-03, 07-11 and 17-23 April. High levels are expected on 29-31 March, 04-06 and 12-16 April.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 02-03 and 11-13 April with G2 (Moderate) storm levels expected on 02 and 11 April due to the influence of recurrent, negative polarity CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 28-29 March, 04, 08, 14 and 23 April, with isolated active levels expected on 28 March and 23 April, all due to various CH HSSs. Mostly quiet condtions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
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