Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Mar 21 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Mar 21 0054 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 – 20 March 2016
Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels during the period. Low levels were observed on 15, 16 and 19 March due to isolated, weak C-class flares from Regions 2521 (N19, L=029, class/area Dao/080 on 14 Mar) and 2522 (N14, L=078, class/area Cao/040 on 15 Mar). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 14, 15 and 19 March and high levels on 16-18 and 20 March.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels (G1-minor). The period began with quiet conditions, but increased to unsettled to minor storm levels late on 14 March due to the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) that originated from a negative extension off of the southern crown. With the CIR, wind speeds rapidly increased from about 360 km/s to near 565 km/s by late on the 14th. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) responded with total field (Bt) readings of 23 nT while the Bz component rotated between +18 nT to – 19 nT.
Geomagnetic field conditions remained elevated through 18 March with quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind conditions also remained enhanced with wind speeds that approached 600 km/s midday on the 17th. Bt and Bz relaxed by early on 15 March with Bt fairly steady at 10 nT with Bz varying between +/- 8 nT. 18 and 19 March saw quiet to active levels due to prolonged periods of southward Bz. During this time frame, wind speeds averaged about 425 km/s.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 March – 16 April 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class activity throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be high levels on 21-22 March, 04-06 April and 12-16 April. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2-moderate storm levels on 02 April with G1-minor storm levels expected on 03, 11-13 April due to the influence of recurrent, negative polarity CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period under a nominal solar wind regime.
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