Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Mar 07 0539 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 February – 06 March 2016
Solar activity reached low levels on 04 March due to a C1 flare from Region 2506 (S06, L=223, class/area=Dai/130 on 29 Feb) at 0900 UTC. Very low levels were observed for the remainder of the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet or quiet to unsettled levels until 06 March, when a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. During the onset of the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) total field (Bt) to a maximum of 22 nT at 06/1646 UTC while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -18 nT at 06/1834 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased to a peak of around 580 km/s at the end of the period. The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) during the 1500-1800 synoptic period, G2 (Moderate) during the 1800-2100 synoptic period, and G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm levels during the 2100-2400 UTC synoptic period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 March – 02 April 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares, throughout the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 07-10 March and 17-22 March due to CH HSS effects. Moderate levels are expected from 11-16 March and 23 March – 02 April.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 07 March, 17-19 March, and 02 Apr in reponse to effects from multiple coronal holes. Quiet to quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated for rest of the forecast period under nominal solar wind conditions.
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