Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Mar 07 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2016 Mar 07 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Mar 07 0539 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 February – 06 March 2016

Solar activity reached low levels on 04 March due to a C1 flare from Region 2506 (S06, L=223, class/area=Dai/130 on 29 Feb) at 0900 UTC. Very low levels were observed for the remainder of the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet or quiet to unsettled levels until 06 March, when a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. During the onset of the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) total field (Bt) to a maximum of 22 nT at 06/1646 UTC while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -18 nT at 06/1834 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased to a peak of around 580 km/s at the end of the period. The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) during the 1500-1800 synoptic period, G2 (Moderate) during the 1800-2100 synoptic period, and G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm levels during the 2100-2400 UTC synoptic period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 March – 02 April 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares, throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 07-10 March and 17-22 March due to CH HSS effects. Moderate levels are expected from 11-16 March and 23 March – 02 April.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 07 March, 17-19 March, and 02 Apr in reponse to effects from multiple coronal holes. Quiet to quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated for rest of the forecast period under nominal solar wind conditions.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

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