Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Jul 11 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2016 Jul 11 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jul 11 0329 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 – 10 July 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels from 04-06 Jul followed by low levels for the remainder of the period. Region 2561 (S16, L=344, class/area Cro/beta on 07 Jul) produced a C5/Sn flare at 07/0756 UTC. Region 2564 (N09, L=209, class/area Dai/120 on 10 Jul) produced all further C-class activity, the largest a C8/2f at 10/0059 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (1435 km/s). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels from 04-08 Jul and reached high levels on 09-10 Jul following several days of enhanced solar wind speeds with a sequence of coronal holes.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet from 04-06 Jul with a few isolated unsettled periods under a nominal solar wind regime. Unsettled to minor storm conditions were observed on 07-08 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS effects followed by unsettled to active conditions on 09 Jul as effects began to subside. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 10 Jul as CH HSS effects waned.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 July – 06 August 2016

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares through 24 Jul due to flare potential from Region 2564. Activity is expected to be very low for the remainder of the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 16-19 Jul, 22-27 Jul and 05-06 Aug following recurrent CH HSS events. Normal to moderate levels are expected otherwise.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach minor storm levels on 11 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 12 Jul as effects continue followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 13 Jul as effects subside. A second CH HSS is expected to bring quiet to unsettled conditions on 14-15 Jul with active periods likely on the 14th. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 16-18 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated from 19-24 Jul due to effects from a series of recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 25 Jul to 02 Aug with isolated unsettled periods possible from 28-30 Jul as a few small CH HSS events move past Earth. Minor storms are likely on 03-04 Aug due to recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS activity, decreasing to active conditions on 05 Aug and unsettled conditions on 06 Aug as effects subside.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Tomas Hood, NW7US, is a regular contributor to AmateurRadio.com and writes from Nebraska, USA. Tomas is the Space Weather and Radio Propagation Contributing Editor to 'CQ Amateur Radio Magazine', 'The Spectrum Monitor', and 'RadioUser UK Magazine'.

Leave a Comment

Subscribe FREE to AmateurRadio.com's
Amateur Radio Newsletter
News, Opinion, Giveaways & More!

E-mail 
Join over 7,000 subscribers!
We never share your e-mail address.



Also available via RSS feed, Twitter, and Facebook.


Subscribe FREE to AmateurRadio.com's
Amateur Radio Newsletter

 
We never share your e-mail address.

Please support our generous sponsors who make AmateurRadio.com possible:

KB3IFH QSL Cards

Hip Ham Shirts

Georgia Copper

Ham-Cram
Expert Linears

morseDX

Ni4L Antennas

N3ZN Keys

West Mountain
R&L Electronics


Do you like to write?
Interesting project to share?
Helpful tips and ideas for other hams?

Submit an article and we will review it for publication on AmateurRadio.com!

Have a ham radio product or service?
Consider advertising on our site.

Are you a reporter covering ham radio?
Find ham radio experts for your story.

How to Set Up a Ham Radio Blog
Get started in less than 15 minutes!


  • Matt W1MST, Managing Editor




Sign up for our free
Amateur Radio Newsletter

Enter your e-mail address: