Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Jul 11 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jul 11 0329 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 – 10 July 2016
Solar activity was at very low levels from 04-06 Jul followed by low levels for the remainder of the period. Region 2561 (S16, L=344, class/area Cro/beta on 07 Jul) produced a C5/Sn flare at 07/0756 UTC. Region 2564 (N09, L=209, class/area Dai/120 on 10 Jul) produced all further C-class activity, the largest a C8/2f at 10/0059 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (1435 km/s). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels from 04-08 Jul and reached high levels on 09-10 Jul following several days of enhanced solar wind speeds with a sequence of coronal holes.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet from 04-06 Jul with a few isolated unsettled periods under a nominal solar wind regime. Unsettled to minor storm conditions were observed on 07-08 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS effects followed by unsettled to active conditions on 09 Jul as effects began to subside. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 10 Jul as CH HSS effects waned.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 July – 06 August 2016
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares through 24 Jul due to flare potential from Region 2564. Activity is expected to be very low for the remainder of the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 16-19 Jul, 22-27 Jul and 05-06 Aug following recurrent CH HSS events. Normal to moderate levels are expected otherwise.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach minor storm levels on 11 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 12 Jul as effects continue followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 13 Jul as effects subside. A second CH HSS is expected to bring quiet to unsettled conditions on 14-15 Jul with active periods likely on the 14th. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 16-18 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated from 19-24 Jul due to effects from a series of recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 25 Jul to 02 Aug with isolated unsettled periods possible from 28-30 Jul as a few small CH HSS events move past Earth. Minor storms are likely on 03-04 Aug due to recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS activity, decreasing to active conditions on 05 Aug and unsettled conditions on 06 Aug as effects subside.
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