Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Apr 18 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Apr 18 0325 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 – 17 April 2016
Solar activity was at low levels throughout the period. Region 2529 (N09, L=342, class/area Eki/850 on 11 Apr) produced all of the C-class activity, the largest event a C5/Sf at 16/1958 UTC. An associated CME was observed off the west limb but was determined not to be Earth-directed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 11 and 12 April. High levels were reached from 13-18 April following coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 11 April. Unsettled to minor storm conditions were observed on 12-14 April due to effects from a negative polarity CH HSS. Active conditions continued into early 15 April but decreased to mostly quiet levels through midday on 16 April. A weak CME moved through late on 16 April increasing activity to unsettled to active levels. Quiet to active conditions continued into 17 April as CME effects subsided and a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of an approaching positive polarity CH HSS.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 April – 14 May 2016
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares on 18-20 April. As Region 2529 exits the west limb, activity is expected to decrease to very low levels with a chance for C-class activity from 21 April to 02 May. Low levels are expected to return from 03-14 May due to the return of old Region 2529.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with the exception of 26-28 April, 01-03 May and 10-13 April following recurrent CH HSS events.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active on 18-19 April followed with quiet to unsettled levels on 20 April due to effects from a positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 21-22 April. Unsettled conditions are expected on 23-26 April with isolated active periods likely due to a second recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 27-28 April. Unsettled to active conditions are anticipated on 29-30 April with minor storm periods likely on 29 April as a negative polarity HSS becomes geoeffective. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 01-08 May with the exception of possible unsettled to active periods on 04 May due to an SSBC that has affected us the last few rotations. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 09-11 May with minor storm periods likely as a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 12-13 May followed by possible unsettled to active conditions on 14 May as a CIR impacts the Earth.
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