Weekly Propagation Summary – 2016 Apr 04 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Apr 04 0340 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 March – 03 April 2016
Solar activity was at low levels on 28 March due to an isolated C2 flare from Region 2524 (N15, L=277, class/area Eho/340 on 19 March) at 0228 UTC. The rest of the period was dominated by very low levels as Region 2526 (S05, L=178, class/area, Cso/200 on 29 Mar) was the only spot group on the disk until the emergence of new flux on 03 April. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels (G2-Moderate) during the period. From 28-31 March, solar wind parameters indicated the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds increased from near 450 km/s at the beginning of the period to around 590 km/s by early on 30 March before declining to a low around 330 km/s by 02 April. Total field slowly declined from 8 nT early in the period to 3 nT by 01 April. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 28 and 30 March with quiet to unsettled levels on 29 and 31 March. Quiet conditions were observed on 01 April through midday on 02 April. At approximately 02/1344 UTC, a solar sector boundary crossing occurred into a negative (towards) sector followed by an increase in total field to a maximum of 18 nT at 02/1406 UTC while Bz reached a maximum negative deflection of -14 nT at 02/1522 UTC. Solar wind speed increased to near 540 km/s around 02/2131 UTC indicating the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region followed by another CH HSS. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to major storm levels (G2-Moderate) during the second half of 02 April. By 03 April, solar wind speed was in decline to around 400 km/s while total field measurements were near 6 nT. Quiet to active levels were observed on 03 April.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 April – 30 April 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels on 04, 06-10, 14-18, and 26-29 April in response to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 05-08, 11-15, 24-27, and 30 April with (G1) minor storm levels likely on 13-14 and 30 April and (G2) moderate storm levels likely on 12 April due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
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