Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Nov 30 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Nov 30 0318 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 – 29 November 2015
Solar activity was at very low levels with the exception of 23 and 25 November. Region 2454 (N14, L=121, class/area Dai/150 on 23 Nov) produced a few C-class events, the largest a C8/1f at 23/0228 UTC. Between 24/1130-1530 UTC, SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery observed a 20 degree long eruption, centered near S10W00, along a NW to SE oriented filament channel. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels on 23-27 November but decreased to normal levels on 28-29 November.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels from 23-26 November. Mostly quiet levels were observed with a few isolated unsettled periods on 27-29 November and a single active period observed during the 29/2100-2400 UTC synoptic period due to prolonged negative Bz and slightly elevated solar wind speed.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 November – 26 December 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be normal to moderate levels for the majority of the period with the exception of 03-05 December, 08-09 December and 11-15 December following several recurrent coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS).
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active on 30 November-02 December with minor storm periods expected on 01 December due to a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected from 03-05 December. Isolated active periods are likely again on 06-07 December and 10 December as two subsequent positive polarity CH HSSs become geoeffective respectively. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to dominate the remainder of the forecast period.
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