Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Nov 02 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Nov 02 0132 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 October – 01 November 2015
Solar activity was at low levels on 26-30 October and 01 November with numerous C-class events, primarily observed from Region 2443 (N07, L=316, class/area Fkc/650 on 01 Nov). An isolated M1/Sf (R1-Minor) flare was observed on 31 October at 1752 UTC from Region 2443. On 29 October, Type II (estimated 972 km/s shock velocity) and Type IV radio emissions were detected at 0219 UTC and 0230 UTC, respectively. SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed a non Earth-directed CME off the SW limb at 29/0236 UTC, believed to be associated with the Type II and Type IV radio activity.
A short-lived greater than 10 MeV at greater than or equal to 10 pfu proton event was observed on 29 October. The event began at 29/0550 UTC, reached a maximum of 23 pfu at 29/1000 UTC and ended at 29/1700 UTC. Coincident with this event was a short-lived greater than 100 MeV at greater than or equal to 1 pfu event. This event began at 29/0435 UTC, reached a maximum of 2 pfu at 29/0610 UTC and ended at 29/0930 UTC. Both of these events were most likely associated with activity just beyond the SW limb described above.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 26, 30-31 October and 01 November with moderate levels obsered on 27-29 October.
Geomagnetic field activity was predominately at quiet levels with some unsettled periods observed on 30-31 October and 01 November. Solar wind parameters reflected a mostly nominal environment with wind speeds ranging from a high of 483 km/s at 26/1145 UTC to a low of 287 km/s at 29/0746 UTC. Total field strength ranged from 1-10 nT while the Bz component did not vary much beyond +/- 7 nT. Phi angle was in a positive (away) orientation from the beginning of the period through early on 28 October when a switch to a negative (towards) sector was observed. Phi switched back to a positive sector at about 29/1915 UTC and remained so through the balance of the summary period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 November – 28 November 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with moderate levels (R1-R2.Minor-Moderate) likely through the outlook period. Region 2443, through 10 November, and the return of old Regions 2434 (S09, L=165) on 07 November and 2437 (S18, L=098) on 12 November are likely to produce M-class activity through the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit in the absence of any siginifcant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high to very high levels on 02-13 November due to an enhanced solar wind environment as a recurrent, trans-equatorial coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes geoeffective. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 14-28 November.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to began the period at G1 (Minor), G2 (Moderate) and G3 (Strong) levels on 02 November followed by G1 to G2 levels on 03 November as a recurrent, trans-equatorial CH HSS impacts Earth. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 04-06 November as CH HSS effects wane. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 13-14 November and 16-17 November due to periods of southward Bz and a weak positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
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