Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jul 20 0508 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 – 19 July 2015
Solar activity began the period at very low levels on 13 Jul but increased to low levels on 14 Jul with C1 flares from Region 2381 (N14, L=074, class/area Eko/550 on 08 Jul) and 2387 (N17, L=271, class/area Dai/120 on 18 Jul) at 14/0925 UTC and 14/1210 UTC respectively. Very low levels were observed on 15-17 Jul. Ground observatories reported a 22 degree filament eruption, centered near N39E36 at 16/1453-1643 UTC. The associated CME was not geoeffective. Region 2388 (N08, L=024, class/area Cao/020 on 16 Jul) produced a C1 flare at 18/1442 UTC and was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (est speed 418 km/s). A CME was later observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery erupting from the west limb at 18/1512 UTC with an estimated plane of sky speed of 337 km/s. This event is not expected to be geoeffective. A long duration event (LDE) C2 flare was observed at 19/1040 UTC. The LDE was associated with a 23 degree long filament eruption located in the SW quadrant centered near S32W52. CME analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output, revealed a possible weak glancing blow from the northern flank of the SW-directed CME expected to arrive at Earth early on 23 Jul.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 13 Jul. High levels were reached from 14-19 Jul due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.
Geomagnetic field activity reached minor storm levels on 13 Jul due to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Mostly quiet conditions with isolated unsettled periods were observed from 14-16 Jul as coronal hole effects subsided. Quiet conditions were observed for the remainder of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 July – 15 August 2015
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low from 20-27 Jul. Moderate levels are likely from 28 Jul through 10 Aug due to the return of old Region 2381 followed by a return to very low to low levels for the remainder of the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at high levels from 20-22 Jul before an anticipated glancing blow from the 19 Jul CME is expected to redistribute. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 23-26 Jul followed by a return to high levels from 27-30 Jul following elevated wind speeds from a combination of the CME and a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). High flux levels are expected from 03-05 Aug and 10-15 Aug following recurrent negative and positive polarity high speed streams respectively.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 20 Jul due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS followed by quiet conditions from 21-22 Jul as effects subside. Unsettled to active conditions are expected from 23-24 Jul due to a possible glancing blow from the 19 Jul CME followed in close succession by a recurrent positive polarity HSS. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail from 25-30 Jul. Unsettled to active conditions are expected from 31 Jul-02 Aug due to a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS, with minor storms likely on 01 Aug when the HSS is at its peak strength. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return from 03-05 Aug. Minor storm conditions are likely from 06-07 Aug due to another recurrent positive polarity HSS, followed by a steady decrease to active and then unsettled conditions from 08-10 Aug as effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.
Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/
Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/
Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!
Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g
We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr