Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Dec 07 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Dec 07 0214 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 November – 06 December 2015
Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2458 (N10, L=356, class/area Dao/160 on 24 Nov), 2462 (N09, L=216, class/area Hax/40 on 04 Dec), 2463 (S11, L=205, class/area Dao/130 on 05 Dec) and 2464 (S12, L=189, class/area Axx/10 on 05 Dec) each produced C-class flares. The largest event of the period was a C4/Sf at 1702 UTC on 04 December. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal levels on 30 November and reached moderate levels on 01 December. High levels were observed from 02-04 December before returning to moderate levels for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to active with an isolated minor storm period from 0600-0900 UTC on 30 November due to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet to active levels were observed on 01 December as HSS influence continued. Predominately quiet conditions were observed from 02-04 December with some unsettled periods on 02 and 04 December. Quiet to active levels returned on 05 December due to effects from a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a second positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions dominated 06 December with an isolated minor storm period observed from 0900-1200 UTC.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 December – 02 January 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the majority of the period with high levels likely on 08-09 December, 11-15 December and 29-31 December following anticipated recurrent CH HSS events.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach minor storm levels on 07 and 08 December due to continued effects from a positive polarity CH HSS. Predominately unsettled to active conditions are expected to from 09-13 December with minor storm periods possible as HSS effects persist. Mostly quiet levels are expected from 14-26 December. Quiet to active conditions are likely on 27 and 28 December due effects from a second recurrent CH HSS followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 29 December as influence subsides. Quiet conditions are expected on 30-31 December. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 01 January with minor storm levels likely on 02 January as a third recurrent CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.
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