Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Apr 13 16:10 UTC
Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Apr 13 0314 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 – 12 April 2015
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels throughout the period.
Region 2320 (S12, L=211, class/area=Dac/180 on 07 Apr) produced an
M1/1b flare at 1443 UTC on 08 April and Region 2321 (N13, L=094,
class/area=Ekc/610 on 12 Apr) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare
at 0950 UTC on 12 April, which were the largest events of the
period. In addition to the R1 (Minor) radio blackouts, Regions 2320
and 2321 produced numerous low to mid-level C-class flares
throughout the week and were the most productive active regions of
the period. A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the M1/Sf
flare from Region 2321 was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery at 0948 UTC on 12 April, but was directed well
east of the Sun-Earth line.
Region 2320 produced a C3/1f flare at 1906 UTC on 06 April, with
associated Type-II and Type-IV radio emissions, which resulted in a
CME that was visible in coronagraph imagery beginning at 1936 UTC on
06 April. This CME impacted Earth early on 10 April, causing periods
of moderate geomagnetic storms. See "Geomag" portion below
for further information.
Toward the end of the period, Region 2320 produced a C6/Sf flare at
2329 UTC on 12 April with associated Type-II radio emissions. A
subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME) was first visible in
SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 12/2348 UTC but analysis is
ongoing to determine if this event has an Earth-directed component.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels on 06-09 April and at normal levels for the
remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels for
06-09 April under a nominal solar wind regime. The 06 April CME
impacted Earth just after 0000 UTC on 10 April, enhancing the
geomagnetic field. As the 06 April CME passed the Earth, 10 April
began with periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions
between 0000-0300 UTC and 0600-0900 UTC and an isolated period of G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm period between 10/0300-0600 UTC. Active
conditions were observed between 10/0900-1500 UTC with quiet to
unsettled levels observed over the remainder of 10 April. Active
conditions were observed once again for the first half of 11 April
as residual CME effects continued to subside but the latter half of
11 April was quiet to unsettled. Quiet conditions were observed on
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 April – 09 May 2015
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels throughout the period, with the exception of 25-26 April, due
to the flare potential of Regions 2320 (S12, L=211) and 2321 (N13,
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring any
significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 21-24 April and 04-09 May, moderate
levels on 17-20, 25-28 April, and 01-03 May, and normal levels for
the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 17 and 30 April with active conditions
expected for 16, 25, 29 April and 01 May, all due to coronal hole
high speed stream effects. Quiet to unsettled field activity
expected for the remainder of the period.
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