Weekly Propagation Summary – 2015 Apr 06 16:10 UTC

Weekly Propagation Summary (2015 Apr 06 16:10 UTC)

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Apr 06 0133 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 March – 05 April 2015

Solar activity was at low levels throughout the period. Region 2303
(N19, L=066, class/area=Hkx/400 on 17 Mar) produced low to mid-level
C-class activity early in the period while Regions 2318 (N10, L=199,
class/area=Dao/199 on 05 Apr) and 2320 (S12, L=212,
class/area=Dai/140 on 05 Apr) each produced only low-level C-class
flare activity throughout the remainder of the period.

A filament eruption centered near S29E28 was observed in SDO/AIA 193
imagery between 04/2225-2330 UTC. A long-duration C3/1f hyderflare
was measured during this event and had an associated Type-II radio
emission. The subsequent fast-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) was
first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at
04/2336 UTC. WSA-ENLIL model output suggests a glancing blow arrival
of this CME late on 07 April.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels on 30 Mar and normal to moderate levels on 31 Mar-05
Apr.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 02-04
Apr with an isolated period of active conditions observed between
2100-2359 UTC on 02 Apr due to the effects of a positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels were
observed on 30 Mar-01 Apr, and 05 Apr under a mostly nominal solar
wind environment.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 April – 02 May 2015

Solar activity is expected to be low (below NOAA Scale event
thresholds) with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flare
activity throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 22-24 Apr and 02 May, moderate
levels on 06-08, 11-14, 17, 20-21 Apr, and 27 Apr-01 May, and at
normal levels for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 15-16, 18-19, and 25-27 Apr due to
coronal hole high speed stream effects. Active conditions are
expected on 07-09 Apr due to the anticipated arrival of the 04/05
Apr CME. Active conditions are expected on 17, 20 Apr, and 28 Apr-01
May due to coronal hole high speed stream effects with generally
quiet to unsettled levels likely for the remainder of the period.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

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