Upcoming Solar Years … Can They Be Too Quiet?

Most of us LF/MF and topband diehards have been looking forward to the next several years of low solar activity ... maybe even 'ultra-low' as some of the solar gurus are predicting.
An interesting posting on the Topband reflector a few weeks ago by noted propagation expert, Carl, K9LA, made me re-think my expectations!
I flagged the post for a later blog topic but have since seen the information pop-up on a couple of other reflectors as well as on the ARRL News page. Apparently I wasn't the only one to give the posting a double-take. If you missed it, here is Carl's post:
About a week ago Wolf DF2PY posted a message here commenting on the recent adverse levels of geomagnetic field activity and how it will now change for the good - giving us good 160m propagation.
We'll certainly see less geomagnetic field activity as we move into winter,
but there's another issue we should be aware of. The Sun's magnetic field
is weakening - probably to the lowest levels in our lifetime. With a weak
solar magnetic field, more galactic cosmic rays will be able to get into
the Earth's atmosphere. We are now seeing unprecedented high neutron counts (neutrons are one of the by-products of cosmic rays)
Since galactic cosmic rays are mostly *very energetic* protons, they can
get down to low atmospheric altitudes, causing collisional ionization in
the D region (and lower E region). A cursory estimate using cosmic ray
ionization rates confirms more ionization in the lower atmosphere. 160m is
not very tolerant of more absorption, so we may see an adverse effect of
the weakened solar magnetic field.
Many of us think that "solar min is solar min is solar min". But maybe a
solar minimum can be too deep for 160m. A good question to ask in the early 2020s will be "how was 160m?" So stay active on 160m and let's see what happens.
Carl K9LA
My initial response was to think that perhaps there wouldn't be as much to look forward to as I had been hoping for, when it came to improved LF, MF and 160m propagation. Carl's postulation was also backed-up by another mention on the Spaceweather site, although the influence of cosmic ray bombardment on radio propagation was not discussed.
As I thought more about this unfortunate possibility actually coming to pass, I thought back to my own on-air and listening experiences during previous solar-low years ... particularly the unprecedented low between our most recent cycle and its predecessor, Cycle 23.
The low period between these two cycles, as most will likely recall, saw the quietest solar conditions observed in the past 100 years. The solar-low winters saw week after week of a blank Sun, with solar activity virtually flatlining for the entire period. In 2008 there were 265 'zero sunspot' days and the following year saw another 262 days of blank suns!
These effects were well noted here for two winters that are usually prime 'DX times' ... if ever there were a period when cosmic ray bombardment should negatively impact low frequency propagation, surely it would have been then.
So just what did I observe?
What I saw was not only what I had been expecting but was much much better than I had ever believed possible. For west coast topband operators, the 'holy grail' of propagation is working Europe. Working Europe from here means that signals must travel through the polar regions, usually the kiss-of- death for weak signals, as the severe attenuation through the auroral zone means that it just doesn't happen very often ... except for this prolonged period of ultra lows. In a word, conditions to Europe were 'spectacular' ... night-after-night, for several weeks over a period of two winters, working Europe on 160 became normal.
On most nights, European signals could be heard before local sunset, and on several occasions, CW contacts with Europeans, were completed up to one and a half hours before my local sunset. As darkness set in, more signals would appear and the band would rapidly become populated with Europeans ... and only Europeans.
Most of the time there were no signals from North America evident, just Europeans ... a condition that had me shaking my head in disbelief night after night. It was something I had never observed before, as I watched 160m behaving more like 20m CW on a good day to Europe! During this period, my DXCC totals skyrocketed from 99 to 143 worked, as new Europeans and Africans were added to my logbook.
Signal levels were also outstanding, often pushing the FT-1000 S-meter well past the S9 level. On one particular night, I recall hearing an SM4 calling CQ, with just such a signal. I set my output power level at 10 watts and gave him a call, to which he quickly responded. If cosmic ray bombardment was at a high level, it was not reeking any havoc as far as the west coast path to Europe was concerned! For the record, my topband system is nothing special, consisting of a simple 'half-sloper' over a poor ground and a very old amplifier running about 500W output.
My other favorite winter pastime is chasing NDBs in the MF range between 200-500 kHz. Exceptional east west conditions were evident throughout the two winters of ultra-lows.
On one such night, I noted a new strong signal where none had been previously heard. Because of its strength, I surmised that it was probably a new NDB in nearby Washington state. Noting its ident ('NYA' on 414 kHz), I was not able to find any reference to such a beacon being previously reported and turned to the Yahoo ndblist group for help, posting my catch as 'unidentified'. Almost immediately I received a response, telling me that the signal I was hearing was located in Europe ... Svalbard to be exact, located midway between Norway and the North Pole!
Now, European NDBs have never been heard from the west coast, other than occasional signals from some of Greenland's powerhouses, so this represents a very rare event. Although I have often listened for this signal, it has yet to be heard here again and my logging of remains its only reported foray into any part of North America. Unfortunately, in 2015, it was listed as 'decomissioned'. I have no doubts that this rare propagation was a result of the solar flatlining conditions of the time.
As chilling as Carl's warning sounds, he himself admits uncertainty with a 'let's wait and see' attitude and after reviewing my own experiences under what surely must be similar conditions, I'm still very optimistic over what might be in store. Hopefully we shouldn't have to wait too much longer to find out!
Steve McDonald, VE7SL, is a regular contributor to AmateurRadio.com and writes from British Columbia, Canada. Contact him at [email protected].
New link HF Signals added
You can guess what I am going to write about next?
Steve, G1KQH, is a regular contributor to AmateurRadio.com and writes from England. Contact him at [email protected].
New link HF Signals added
You can guess what I am going to write about next?
Steve, G1KQH, is a regular contributor to AmateurRadio.com and writes from England. Contact him at [email protected].
Boy am I rusty!!
Mike Weir, VE9KK, is a regular contributor to AmateurRadio.com and writes from New Brunswick, Canada. Contact him at [email protected].
Boy am I rusty!!
Mike Weir, VE9KK, is a regular contributor to AmateurRadio.com and writes from New Brunswick, Canada. Contact him at [email protected].
Smartlock
The Smartlock is an accessory for my SGC SG-239 HF Smartuner, and other ATUs they make. It can be bought ready made or built.




“I wanted to build a SmartLock to use with my SG-239. After studying the SmartLock schematic, I couldn’t figure out why SGC put in the transistor and zener diode. The ST-TNE input on the SG-239 is just a 1.5K resistor to an open collector transistor to ground. So I eliminated Q1, R3, D1 and C3 on the SGC SmartLock schematic. My final circuit is shown below. I used a DB9S connector to interface with the SGC tuner (I attached a DB9P to the tuner interface wires), and a PowerPole interface for 12VDC. This way I could use a standard DB9 extension cable as necessary for interfacing between the tuner and SmartLock. I used ultra-bright LEDs (3000mcd or so) to provide plenty of visibility.”






SGC Smartlock control









Amateur Radio Weekly – Issue 134
Hara Arena items to be auctioned off starting Thanksgiving
The auction will include a limited number of Hara Arena and Cincinnati’s Crosley Field seats, Hara signage, photos, posters, sports and event memorabilia, sports equipment, chandeliers, catering items, tables and chairs.
Dayton Daily News
Simulating JT modes: how low can they get?
In this post I’ll show how one can use the signal generation tools in WSJT-X to do decoding simulations.
Daniel Estévez
Does QRP Really Work?
I have heard the saying so often “Life is Too Short for QRP”. For some reason, many radio amateurs refuse to embrace and even eschew low power.
NY4G
Hams on Strava
Many DXers and Contesters also participate in endurance sports such as running, cycling, and triathlon when not on the radio.
AmateurRadio.com
The Doctor is in: Stealth Antennas
Sometimes the best antenna is the “least” antenna.
ARRL
Amateur radio installation in a 2016 Ford F-150 SuperCrew
Installing in a truck and an evolving digital radiosphere presented some challenges.
Kevin Sanders
Ham Radio 360: ARES; an Introduction
Ham Radio 360 talks to Cecil Higgins (AC0HA) the ARES Section Manager for Missouri.
Ham Radio 360
Field Results for an AS-2259/GS Antenna
Let’s start with the good news first. The antenna worked like a champ. From suburban Chicago, our first contact was Toronto.
N4AE
Video
DEF CON 24: I Amateur Radio And So Can You
Kat Sweet explains how Ham Radio can be incorporated into everyday hacking.
K7FTW
Yaesu FT-817 QRP through a mag mounted Ham Stick
I make a QSO while testing out a 40 meter ham stick in a mag mount configuration.
KD9EAS
Ham Radio 2.0: Unboxing and testing the Yaesu FT-891
Yaesu’s newest HF mobile radio has some cool new features, but leaves out other options.
Ham Radio 2.0
ARRL Webinar: CHIRP Programming
This ARRL webinar offers a brief overview of the free, open-source CHIRP software, which can be used to program most radios.
ARRL
Ham shack kitten
Essex Ham’s Shack Kitten, Splodge, gets his own YouTube video.
Essex Ham
Amateur Radio Weekly is curated by Cale Mooth K4HCK. Sign up free to receive ham radio's most relevant news, projects, technology and events by e-mail each week at http://www.hamweekly.com.



















